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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
"She died on Jan. 15 of “severe pneumonia,” according to a copy of her death certificate.

Mr. Hui said that hospital workers treated his stepmother as if she had the coronavirus, wearing hazmat suits. After she died, the hospital instructed the family to cremate the body immediately. Mr. Hui said that after her death, doctors informed the family that they suspected his stepmother had the coronavirus.

“I’m very sad my stepmother left without any dignity,” Mr. Hui said during an interview this week in a cafe in Wuhan. “There was no time to say goodbye.”
 
I agree on comparisons.. I wish we had a CFR, had some idea about acquired antigenic immunity - pandemic AR is 50%, 3-4 waves over 2 years - at least for flu. I got the impression that WHO thought 2% was small, but I may have heard that wrong. China has BSL-4's, perhaps they can provide something useful on the antiviral and vaccine fronts. 2% will be no small problem. And that's just on the response side, that we get a chunk of our medical supplies from China.. that will make it more interesting.
 
Personally, 2% is probably somewhere in the middle of my estimates.
I doubt it will be that high. This is based on the well known scientific principle of the gut feeling. It is impossible to calculate at present because we do not know how many are infected until we test them and we have not got the capacity to do so. Like many others I have been reading here for a long time and watched H5N1,H7N9, H1N1(2009), SARS, MERS, Ebola, dengue, chikungunya and Zika, while H1N1(1918) was a little before FluTrackers opened there is plenty of information here. So where does it fall on this scale? How transmissible is it, does its growth profile look like 2009? How virulent is it, if asymptomatic to fatal what is the distribution? What is the infectious period, is there a gradient in transmissibility, what is its distribution? Without more information on all of these their upper and lower limits are so broad they will leave an enormous margin of error in estimates based on them. Which brings me back to my list where 2009 feels similar at a similar stage then too there were worrying accounts and high CFRs based on the same types of types of available data. This a working hypothesis based on what I know now, which isn't very much, and will have to change, as I said gut feeling.
 
I'm hearing a lot from people saying that this is being overblown and that this is just like flu. I feel that the number 133/200,000 or .06% puts a lower limit on the cfr. Which is in the range of flu cfrs. I fully accept that further fatalities among the currently sick will raise it further. I guess what I'm trying to show is that 0.06% is the absolute best it gets and the reality will probably be worse. This virus will probably end up having a cfr greater than an average flu.
 
France -
...
The epidemic continues to spread. The Minister of Health, Agn?s Buzyn, confirmed on Wednesday a fifth proven case of the new coronavirus on French soil. She is the daughter of the fourth case, the 80-year-old Chinese tourist . "In serious condition", they both were placed in intensive care.

This man had arrived in France "on January 23" and first consulted the emergency room of the European Georges Pompidou hospital in Paris on Saturday 25. He was not initially detained, however.

"He had a fever but no cough or respiratory signs, he did not come from Wuhan (epicenter of the epidemic in China, editor's note) but from a city 400 kilometers north: he was far from the criteria and n 'was not selected as a possible case' of coronavirus infection, said Professor Yazdanpanah earlier today.

...
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...herlands/page2
 
Asymptomatic transmission?

Germany confirms human transmission of coronavirus

Health authorities say a Bavarian man contracted the virus from a colleague visiting from China. It is believed to be the first case of human-to-human transmission in Europe.

The colleague, a woman from Shanghai, "started to feel sick on the flight home on January 23," Andreas Zapf, head of the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety, said at a press conference.
...
Last week, the infected man, who works for the auto parts supplier Webasto in Starnberg, had attended a training session with the visiting Chinese colleague before she returned to China and began showing symptoms of the illness. The woman had recently been visited in Shanghai by her parents, who come from the area around Wuhan, where the new virus is believed to have originated.

Her German colleague in Bavaria developed bronchitis-like symptoms over the weekend but recovered and felt well enough to go to work on Monday.
...
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confir...rus/a-52169007

-----------------------------------------------------
...
This is a 33-year-old man working for an automotive supplier in Bavaria, in the south of Germany, who was infected in January by a colleague who came from China for a few days for training, said the health authorities. This Chinese employee stayed from January 19 to 22 in Germany and upon her return to her country "felt sick", said the director of the Bavarian Health Office, Dr. Andreas Zapf.
...
https://www.bfmtv.com/international/...n-1848434.html

AHPPC provides the following advice to the Australian community following advice from the Communicable Diseases Network Australia
...
People who have been in contact with any confirmed novel coronavirus cases must be isolated in their home for 14 days following exposure;

Returned travellers who have been in Hubei Province of China must be isolated in their home for 14 days after leaving Hubei Province, other than for seeking individual medical care.
...
Summary of evidence to support the revised advice

New international evidence suggest that asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic infection can occur, and that pre-symptomatic transmission has occurred in at least one case cluster.

1. German case cluster: It has been reported that participants at a workshop in Munich had contact with a woman on 21 January. This woman, who had been in Wuhan, became symptomatic on 23 January and diagnosed following return to China. Four workshop attendees, with no travel history to China, have been confirmed with nCoV and several more are under investigation.

2. A 10 year old child reported in a case series was noted as having no fever; although it is likely that this case may have had a cough sufficient to produce PCR positive sputum.

3. A Japanese person reported as a case was a bus driver who transported Chinese passengers from Wuhan. The Japanese person had no history of travel outside Japan. None of the passengers were known cases.

4. Several Chinese language media reports have detailed transmission from pre-symptomatic cases, but no confirmatory evidence has been published.

5. WHO Sitrep (#8) states that 3 of 58 cases diagnosed outside China were asymptomatic.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ommittee-ahppc
 
Ronan, you cannot compare deaths from influenza on the base of statistical estimates with deaths from corona on the basis of the certificated deaths. Unfortunately we can't calculate the real CFR, becouse we don't know how many are dying without a diagnosis and we don't know how many actually hospitalized will die in the next weeks

Emily also made a valid point - deaths in individuals with a pre-existing condition will be attributed to that condition, not coronavirus so reported deaths will apply only to those individuals with no known pre-existing condition. Additionally, the process for confirmation of coronavirus infection is long and complex - 1 positive test, results referred to Chinese CDC followed by a second confirmatory test. Deaths that occur somewhere in the middle of this process where healthcare workers and facilities are pushed to the max are IMHO very unlikely to be recorded as coronavirus. Therefore I suspect that the only way we are going to get accurate data is in the early stages of an epidemic somewhere outside of China IF this goes pandemic, but once numbers hit the maximum capabilities for testing, all epidemiology will go out of the window.

I very much doubt that the extreme efforts of China would be being applied here for a CFR of 0.6% ... there is no way to know without more reliable data one way or the other. I am thinking 2% or more most likely.
 
I am starting to wonder about the coronavirus test results for samples submitted to the CDC since last Friday. Five cases were confirmed in a relatively short time period and reports of samples being sent from various State and County agencies to the CDC for testing appear hourly on news feeds. However, we are only hearing of relatively few results compared to the number of tests being conducted, and all have been negative since the most recent positive test from Arizona. The CDC cannot control reports of testing, but they are the sole source of test results. I cannot help but wonder if they are delaying release of positive results to prevent "panic". New cases are being confirmed daily elsewhere in the world, so it makes sense that we would see more here. So far, the turnaround time for tests is reported to be 24 to 36 hours. That means test results for samples received by CDC through Monday should be available.

I lost confidence in our ability to get current information from the CDC during the pH1N1 pandemic in 2009-10. They appeared to carefully manage the release of information and, although the outbreak in the US wasn't as bad as some feared, it was worse than what the CDC let on. For example, I monitored pH1N1 deaths down to the County Health Department level in some states and in the case of California and Texas, we would see news reports of a pediatric death (for which reporting is mandatory) and it would often be weeks before the County Health Department listed it and longer before it was seen in the weekly CDC report. I realize there is some administrative lag in producing such reports, but when people are worried and afraid, I believe it is best to tell them the truth so they can manage their persona risk. I just hope that when other agencies start doing testing, some will be more forthcoming with the results.

Sorry for the rant...btw, it always makes me laugh when someone says, "This is no time to panic." because is there ever really an appropriate time to panic? What good would it do anyway?
 
Latest from CDC for the US https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S.
Updated January 29, 2020

CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus named 2019-nCoV. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other international locations, including the United States. CDC will update the following U.S. map daily. Information regarding the number of people under investigation will be updated regularly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

Patients Under Investigation (PUI) in the United States*†‡
As of 1/29/2020

People under Investigation (PUI) in the United States
Positive 5
Negative 68
Pending? 92
Total 165
*Cumulative since January 21, 2020.
† Numbers closed out at 7 p.m. the night before reporting.
‡ Excludes those with contact to a known case.
?Includes specimens received and awaiting testing, as well as specimens in route to CDC.

Number of states with PUI: 36
 
Latest from CDC for the US https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S.
Updated January 29, 2020

CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus named 2019-nCoV. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other international locations, including the United States. CDC will update the following U.S. map daily. Information regarding the number of people under investigation will be updated regularly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

Patients Under Investigation (PUI) in the United States*†‡
As of 1/29/2020

People under Investigation (PUI) in the United States
Positive 5
Negative 68
Pending? 92
Total 165
*Cumulative since January 21, 2020.
Numbers closed out at 7 p.m. the night before reporting.
Excludes those with contact to a known case.
?Includes specimens received and awaiting testing, as well as specimens in route to CDC.

Number of states with PUI: 36

So, the footnotes indicate that these numbers are almost 24 hours old? And if you are a suspect, and had contact with a known case, that number isn't in this chart? Is that right or am I a dumbass?
 
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So, the footnotes indicate that these numbers are almost 24 hours old? And if you are a suspect, and had contact with a known case, that number isn't in this chart? Is that right or am I a dumbass?

So, as an extension, we have no idea how many contacts are being testing, and therefore won't see any indications of H2H in the US in the numbers.
 
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I reckon when news is coming out about bodies not being counted and bodies being burned without recording of names and case numbering, it's likely we're not getting the full story. That is why we need serious people on site to gather info from dissenting sources as well as nominal authoritative sources. joe

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304547

"World health officials, back from a visit to Beijing, expressed great concern that a dangerous new virus was spreading between people outside of China, even as the number of illnesses continue to grow dramatically inside that Asian nation.

The new virus has now infected more people in China than were sickened during the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. On Wednesday, the number of cases jumped to 5974, surpassing the 5327 people diagnosed with SARS.

The death toll, which stood at 132 on Wednesday, is lower than the 348 people who died in China from SARS.

Doubts have been raised about the official death toll, however, with claims Chinese authorities have been cremating bodies in secret.

Chinese-language news outlet Initium interviewed people working at local cremation centres in Wuhan, who said bodies were being sent directly from hospitals without being properly identified and added to the official record.
William Yang
@WilliamYang120

? 3h



Replying to @WilliamYang120
... seriousness of the spread in #China, but also the lack of facilities that can handle the rising number of patients.​


7aWTvhGy_bigger.jpg
William Yang
@WilliamYang120



Also, one thing that #China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus. Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers...​

So there are reasons to remain sceptical about what China has been sharing with the world because while they have been more transparent about certain things related to the virus, they continue to be sketchy and unreliable in other aspects," said DW News East Asia correspondent William Yang.

Scientists say there are still many questions to be answered about the new virus, including just how easily it spreads and how severe it is.

The World Health Organisation's emergencies chief told reporters that China was taking "extraordinary measures in the face of an extraordinary challenge" posed by the outbreak..."
 
It seems clear that one of the reasons the Chinese were slow to pick up on this disease was because of the ongoing flu season. It masked the appearance of a new and more dangerous virus.

Even now, it would be very helpful to get a sense of the expected toll from the 'normal flu' in terms of numbers hospitalized and number of fatalities, if only to get a sense of relative risk.
Does nCoV double the expected toll or multiply it tenfold?
 
[h=1]Tears, fear and panic grip China as coronavirus spreads[/h] Note from Jim - this is a far cry from the slick government-sponsored propaganda videos that have been popping up everywhere in recent days.

Read the whole story - very sad and really scary.


BEIJING — The man burst out with a shout at the last second as medical workers boarded a bus headed to Wuhan: “Wang Yuehua, I love you!”

He sobbed, gasping, as his wife joined an emergency response team headed to the deadly new coronavirus that has killed at least 100 patients and infected more than 4,500 people across China. Reported cases are rising every day — more than 60% in the last 24 hours alone.

-snip-

But offscreen, China’s virus war is grim. Silent cities sit in a white winter smog that blots out the sky, their silent, empty streets contrasting with the crowded hospitals where doctors and nurses break down because they lack equipment or rooms for the patients squeezed outside their doors.

-snip-

But the virus is spreading, and residents in Wuhan with sick family members say they are unable to receive diagnostic tests or secure hospital space for their relatives, even when doctors tell them they are likely infected with the new virus.

A woman in Wuhan surnamed Sun, 32, said in a phone interview that her husband, 34, has been sick since Jan. 15, first with a fever and cough, then with a lung infection that a doctor said was likely caused by the coronavirus.

“Of course we couldn’t guess it was something so bad. We didn’t know,” Sun said, adding that her husband works in Wuhan’s Hankou district, where the Huanan Seafood Market, the suspected source of the coronavirus outbreak, is located.

He’d even attended his company’s Lunar New Year banquet near that market, Sun said, when Chinese officials were still claiming that the virus was not transmissible between humans. Since then, his symptoms have escalated from high fever, coughing and fatigue to breathing problems. Sun’s parents, who live with them, have both caught fevers as well.

Her mother, 65, has developed a lung infection, and her father, 67, who had preexisting health problems including diabetes and high blood pressure, has a similar profile to elderly coronavirus victims who have died.

This whole time, Sun has not been able to get her family tested for the coronavirus, she said, because the doctors told her they had no test kits. Without confirmation of whether her husband has the virus, his death would go unreported as either a new virus case or death.

more...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...-grip-china-as-coronavirus-spreads/ar-BBZpOyX
 
Terrified passengers wear PLASTIC BOTTLES and motorbike helmets to protect themselves against coronavirus

DESPERATE air passengers have been spotted wearing everything from plastic bottles to motorbike helmets in a bid to protect themselves from the deadly coronavirus.

It comes as airlines such as British Airways have axed all flights to China amid the terrifying outbreak which has killed more than 100 people.

Photos of terrified travellers have been shared on social media, with people seen covering themselves with plastic sheets and even bottles in public.

A mother and child were seen on the Hong Kong Metro system wearing makeshift "shields" fashioned from cut plastic bottles.

more...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/10844438/coronavirus-desperate-passengers-plastic-bottles-helmets/
 
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