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the mystery of the lacking German deaths
- Thread starter gsgs
- Start date
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
I looked also regularly to the daily update reports from ECDC and the lack of reports from Germany of any hospialisation or death surprised me too and made me suspisious. Maybe the doctors / physicians even don't inform the patient or their relatives about the outcome of the diagnosis of the swine flu influenza or zweinegrippe? It's really mysterious why there are no story's in the news from individual case persons
Are here on FT any Germans who can puzzle this out? Argentina did also withheld the overwhelming hospitalisations and death from swineflu before the elections.
I looked also regularly to the daily update reports from ECDC and the lack of reports from Germany of any hospialisation or death surprised me too and made me suspisious. Maybe the doctors / physicians even don't inform the patient or their relatives about the outcome of the diagnosis of the swine flu influenza or zweinegrippe? It's really mysterious why there are no story's in the news from individual case persons
Are here on FT any Germans who can puzzle this out? Argentina did also withheld the overwhelming hospitalisations and death from swineflu before the elections.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
there are these stories, but they don't get much publicity.
In neighboring European countries we have ~1 death per 2000-5000
reported cases.
Germany counts as "confirmed" also cases with symptoms
plus contact to a previously confirmed case.
It could be that Europeans die less often from this virus.
Genetics,nutrition, communication habits, organization
of schools,Kindergarten, health system,
I see no direct signs that they are withholding deaths.
What would be the motive ?
We have elections 27.Sep., but panflu is no subject
in the campaign
there are these stories, but they don't get much publicity.
In neighboring European countries we have ~1 death per 2000-5000
reported cases.
Germany counts as "confirmed" also cases with symptoms
plus contact to a previously confirmed case.
It could be that Europeans die less often from this virus.
Genetics,nutrition, communication habits, organization
of schools,Kindergarten, health system,
I see no direct signs that they are withholding deaths.
What would be the motive ?
We have elections 27.Sep., but panflu is no subject
in the campaign
ming
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
If Norwegians, Dutch & Belgians etc are dying then so are Germans. Social behaviour is the same in these countries as it is in Germany. I think maybe the doctors are using words other than flu on the certificates. ie "pneumonia" .etc
If Norwegians, Dutch & Belgians etc are dying then so are Germans. Social behaviour is the same in these countries as it is in Germany. I think maybe the doctors are using words other than flu on the certificates. ie "pneumonia" .etc
gsgs
Registered User
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
why should they ? They don't get less money for flu-deaths.
Not many Norwegans,Belgians,Dutch die from flu
Norway,Netherlands don't report all cases according to wikipedia.
And just 1 Belgian death, 2353 cases
50 deaths in NY, ~800000 infected --> 1 death per 16000
why should they ? They don't get less money for flu-deaths.
Not many Norwegans,Belgians,Dutch die from flu
Norway,Netherlands don't report all cases according to wikipedia.
And just 1 Belgian death, 2353 cases
50 deaths in NY, ~800000 infected --> 1 death per 16000
Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
If you don't test, you don't know.
I can imagine doctors won't ask for a test in case of an (older) patient with underlying disease who dies after a flu-like illness, the flu giving "the last push".
I read a story of a nurse in the Netherlands recently, who had to "torture" a man in his 80's with many underlying medical problems who was dying.
"Torture" meaning giving him Tamiflu - because of suspicion of H1N1v - not orally but via a "pipe" directly into his stomach. This was on request of the family.
She hesitated to do this but in the end she agreed - that is what nurses do when the doctor speaks - the family left the room, but than the man died , before she could do anything.
He is not on the list of H1N1 victims in Holland.
If you don't test, you don't know.
I can imagine doctors won't ask for a test in case of an (older) patient with underlying disease who dies after a flu-like illness, the flu giving "the last push".
I read a story of a nurse in the Netherlands recently, who had to "torture" a man in his 80's with many underlying medical problems who was dying.
"Torture" meaning giving him Tamiflu - because of suspicion of H1N1v - not orally but via a "pipe" directly into his stomach. This was on request of the family.
She hesitated to do this but in the end she agreed - that is what nurses do when the doctor speaks - the family left the room, but than the man died , before she could do anything.
He is not on the list of H1N1 victims in Holland.
german-docter
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
FluBossie,
I thoroughly agree that it is a matter of concern that data from German Health Authorities on hospitalisation rates are still missing in the daily update reports from the ECDC.
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/Documents/090916_Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_1700hrs.pdf
German physicians are legally obligated to make notifications on hospitalisations and deaths to local health authorities and these data were collected by Germany?s top institute for the surveillance of infectious diseases (Robert Koch Institute).
The RKI truly has the facts and I deprecate that these data are not open for the public.
There is no doubt that several cases of pandemic influenza H1 N1 already had been seriously ill in Germany and even stayed on intensive care units on ventilator.
Reports on these cases had been published in German newspapers, including the yellow press, and on German television, too.
To give some examples:
Report (01 September 2009) and tv-video (02 September 2009 on N 24) on a 35 year old man in a life threatening condition in the University hospital Bonn.
http://www.express.de/nachrichten/r...ch-in-lebensgefahr_artikel_1251217090060.html
http://www.n24.de/news/newsitem_5387426.html?id=628400&autoplay=true
Report (07 September 2009) on a 21 year old pregnant woman in a comatose state in the University hospital Essen.
http://www.aerztezeitung.de/medizin/krankheiten/infektionskrankheiten/schweinegrippe/?sid=564497
But it is true that the threat of pandemic influenza has not reached the perception of the German public yet. It is true that reports about those serious cases are rare in Germany?s main stream media and still seem to be some kind of ?insider-information?.
In general I?d like to agree to Gsgs? analysis.
I looked also regularly to the daily update reports from ECDC and the lack of reports from Germany of any hospialisation or death surprised me too and made me suspisious. Maybe the doctors / physicians even don't inform the patient or their relatives about the outcome of the diagnosis of the swine flu influenza or zweinegrippe? It's really mysterious why there are no story's in the news from individual case persons
FluBossie,
I thoroughly agree that it is a matter of concern that data from German Health Authorities on hospitalisation rates are still missing in the daily update reports from the ECDC.
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/Documents/090916_Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_1700hrs.pdf
German physicians are legally obligated to make notifications on hospitalisations and deaths to local health authorities and these data were collected by Germany?s top institute for the surveillance of infectious diseases (Robert Koch Institute).
The RKI truly has the facts and I deprecate that these data are not open for the public.
There is no doubt that several cases of pandemic influenza H1 N1 already had been seriously ill in Germany and even stayed on intensive care units on ventilator.
Reports on these cases had been published in German newspapers, including the yellow press, and on German television, too.
To give some examples:
Report (01 September 2009) and tv-video (02 September 2009 on N 24) on a 35 year old man in a life threatening condition in the University hospital Bonn.
http://www.express.de/nachrichten/r...ch-in-lebensgefahr_artikel_1251217090060.html
http://www.n24.de/news/newsitem_5387426.html?id=628400&autoplay=true
Report (07 September 2009) on a 21 year old pregnant woman in a comatose state in the University hospital Essen.
http://www.aerztezeitung.de/medizin/krankheiten/infektionskrankheiten/schweinegrippe/?sid=564497
But it is true that the threat of pandemic influenza has not reached the perception of the German public yet. It is true that reports about those serious cases are rare in Germany?s main stream media and still seem to be some kind of ?insider-information?.
In general I?d like to agree to Gsgs? analysis.
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
Would that be human genetics or virus genetics? Maybe someone saw your posts on the internet about releasing a weaker virus and decided to do it?
I wonder if there are any scenarios where such a strategy could ultimately make things worse?
Would that be human genetics or virus genetics? Maybe someone saw your posts on the internet about releasing a weaker virus and decided to do it?
I wonder if there are any scenarios where such a strategy could ultimately make things worse?
gsgs
Registered User
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
> Would that be human genetics or virus genetics?
human
> Maybe someone saw your posts on the internet about releasing
> a weaker virus and decided to do it?
nobody hears on me
> I wonder if there are any scenarios where such a strategy could
> ultimately make things worse?
that can always happen. But how likely ?
When the probability of benefit is bigger than the probability of
making things worse thn we should do it.
(better:expectation value, not probability)
not doing it could be more risky - except that noone would blame you.
See the vaccine, there is some risk, and when it goes wrong
as in 1976 then they will blame the government/vaccine producer.
When it goes well and the spread is slowed, then the government
will not be praised equally much. They have more to lose than to win.
> Would that be human genetics or virus genetics?
human
> Maybe someone saw your posts on the internet about releasing
> a weaker virus and decided to do it?
nobody hears on me
> I wonder if there are any scenarios where such a strategy could
> ultimately make things worse?
that can always happen. But how likely ?
When the probability of benefit is bigger than the probability of
making things worse thn we should do it.
(better:expectation value, not probability)
not doing it could be more risky - except that noone would blame you.
See the vaccine, there is some risk, and when it goes wrong
as in 1976 then they will blame the government/vaccine producer.
When it goes well and the spread is slowed, then the government
will not be praised equally much. They have more to lose than to win.
german-docter
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
ming, :tiphat:
good question ! so I looked for an answer:
in Germany there are statistical data regarding the main diagnosis of all hospital cases on the basis of the international classification of diseases (ICD).
But this reporting only is retrospective.
For the diagnosis of ?pneumonia? you?ll find these data from 2000 to 2007 at:
http://www.gbe-bund.de/oowa921-inst...WD_122/1/xs_sortdim/D.000/a/F.IND702/_XWD_150
For the purpose of quality management data of hospitalised patients with the diagnosis of community acquired pneumonia are collected by an official institute called BQS, but these data also are only retrospective (report on pneumonia: available 2008).
http://www.bqs-qualitaetsreport.de/2008/ergebnisse/leistungsbereiche/pneumonie/index_html
http://www.bqs-qualitaetsreport.de/2008/ergebnisse/leistungsbereiche/pneumonie/pneumonie.pdf/view
Another source of information could be CAPNETZ, a net of scientists and physicians who are engaged in the issue of community acquired pneumonia (CAP), but there are no surveillance data on pneumonia (e.g. no weekly rates of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths) there.
http://www.capnetz.de/html/home
Sentinel information on acute influenza like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory illness (ARI) can be found at the homepage of the working group on influenza (Robert Koch Institute) but only for ambulant patients (outpatients) with no specific data on pneumonia.
Report on week 37: nothing unusual, 12 % of the sentinel samples were pandemic influenza H1N1 (4/34)
http://influenza.rki.de/
The answer is:
Sorry, reliable data regarding the current numbers of new cases of pneumonia in Germany as well as rates of hospitalisations and pneumonia related deaths are missing.
What a mess!
ming, :tiphat:
good question ! so I looked for an answer:
in Germany there are statistical data regarding the main diagnosis of all hospital cases on the basis of the international classification of diseases (ICD).
But this reporting only is retrospective.
For the diagnosis of ?pneumonia? you?ll find these data from 2000 to 2007 at:
http://www.gbe-bund.de/oowa921-inst...WD_122/1/xs_sortdim/D.000/a/F.IND702/_XWD_150
For the purpose of quality management data of hospitalised patients with the diagnosis of community acquired pneumonia are collected by an official institute called BQS, but these data also are only retrospective (report on pneumonia: available 2008).
http://www.bqs-qualitaetsreport.de/2008/ergebnisse/leistungsbereiche/pneumonie/index_html
http://www.bqs-qualitaetsreport.de/2008/ergebnisse/leistungsbereiche/pneumonie/pneumonie.pdf/view
Another source of information could be CAPNETZ, a net of scientists and physicians who are engaged in the issue of community acquired pneumonia (CAP), but there are no surveillance data on pneumonia (e.g. no weekly rates of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths) there.
http://www.capnetz.de/html/home
Sentinel information on acute influenza like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory illness (ARI) can be found at the homepage of the working group on influenza (Robert Koch Institute) but only for ambulant patients (outpatients) with no specific data on pneumonia.
Report on week 37: nothing unusual, 12 % of the sentinel samples were pandemic influenza H1N1 (4/34)
http://influenza.rki.de/
The answer is:
Sorry, reliable data regarding the current numbers of new cases of pneumonia in Germany as well as rates of hospitalisations and pneumonia related deaths are missing.
What a mess!
ming
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
sorry, reliable data regarding the current numbers of new cases of pneumonia in Germany as well as rates of hospitalisations and pneumonia related deaths are missing.
*****************
Ooohh, now isnt that interesting ? Missing ... right !
TY for looking that up for me
sorry, reliable data regarding the current numbers of new cases of pneumonia in Germany as well as rates of hospitalisations and pneumonia related deaths are missing.
*****************
Ooohh, now isnt that interesting ? Missing ... right !
TY for looking that up for me
german-docter
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
Hi, gsgs :tiphat:
??? check links at post # 21 (Leipzig, pdf: page 47 "Meldepflichtige ?bertragbare Krankheiten" ?)
We talked about current (!) numbers to watch what is happening right now ?
I think, the best available data would be the AGI-RKI (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Influenza)Surveillance
http://influenza.rki.de/
... and for Europe the European Influenza Surveillance Network (EISN)
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/Activities/Surveillance/EISN/Pages/home.aspx
Hi, gsgs :tiphat:
??? check links at post # 21 (Leipzig, pdf: page 47 "Meldepflichtige ?bertragbare Krankheiten" ?)
We talked about current (!) numbers to watch what is happening right now ?
I think, the best available data would be the AGI-RKI (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Influenza)Surveillance
http://influenza.rki.de/
... and for Europe the European Influenza Surveillance Network (EISN)
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/Activities/Surveillance/EISN/Pages/home.aspx
gsgs
Registered User
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
maybe German researchers had figured out this:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=125480
(thread too long for me to read completely, no summary)
or somthing similar earlier.
That made them able to effectively fight severe cases of
swineflu.
But they kept it secret for some reason.
Maybe because they are making a medicine and need the timely
advance against competitors.
Maybe because they are pissed for some reason , others having
withheld their results too or such, and this is just in "revenge"
Maybe
maybe German researchers had figured out this:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=125480
(thread too long for me to read completely, no summary)
or somthing similar earlier.
That made them able to effectively fight severe cases of
swineflu.
But they kept it secret for some reason.
Maybe because they are making a medicine and need the timely
advance against competitors.
Maybe because they are pissed for some reason , others having
withheld their results too or such, and this is just in "revenge"
Maybe
german-docter
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
Gsgs,
I?m not sure if everybody in FT is recognizing your special kind of humour
.
There is no conspiracy! Maybe ?German Angst? and the unlimited (that is "early" !) access to health care is one of the reasons for the outstanding German outcome regarding mortality.
And ?genetics ???, climate ??? ????
Regarding
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=125480
Australian researchers found considerably low Ig G2-levels (Ig = immune globulin) in influenza patients who were critically ill and they treated them with immune globulin as a therapeutic trial. But the lowering of Ig G2 just may be a secondary phenomenon due to a severe state of the disease. Replacement of non-specific immune globulins is expensive and usually does not work with the exception of some very rare diseases. Giving immune globulins really is no rocket science.
Quote:
Up to now, everything is nothing but speculation und further studies will be needed.
Gsgs,
I?m not sure if everybody in FT is recognizing your special kind of humour
. There is no conspiracy! Maybe ?German Angst? and the unlimited (that is "early" !) access to health care is one of the reasons for the outstanding German outcome regarding mortality.
And ?genetics ???, climate ??? ????
Regarding
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=125480
Australian researchers found considerably low Ig G2-levels (Ig = immune globulin) in influenza patients who were critically ill and they treated them with immune globulin as a therapeutic trial. But the lowering of Ig G2 just may be a secondary phenomenon due to a severe state of the disease. Replacement of non-specific immune globulins is expensive and usually does not work with the exception of some very rare diseases. Giving immune globulins really is no rocket science.
Quote:
?Grayson admitted they can't say at this point whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship at work here, meaning low IgG2 levels in the patients predisposed them to suffering from more severe disease once they caught the virus. But he doesn't believe the reverse is at play, that the infection caused the low IgG2 levels.
"We don't think that influenza is causing this deficiency. We think that instead the influenza is picking out those people who have the deficiency," he said.?
"We don't think that influenza is causing this deficiency. We think that instead the influenza is picking out those people who have the deficiency," he said.?
Up to now, everything is nothing but speculation und further studies will be needed.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
maybe not for the German researchers, who are more advanced ?
our neighbors, who are not much different from us wrt.
genetics,..climate,..., anything, have much more deaths:
Netherlands 4,France 27,Norway 4,Greece 3,Malta 3,Sweden 2,
Ireland 2,Italy 1,Belgium 1, Luxembourg 1
with much fewer cases reported. Maybe alltogether they have 19000 cases as reported in Germany.
OK, some French deaths are from the colonies, some countries stopped counting and reporting
all cases as Germany does, but the numbers are still strange.
Normal is das nich
maybe not for the German researchers, who are more advanced ?
our neighbors, who are not much different from us wrt.
genetics,..climate,..., anything, have much more deaths:
Netherlands 4,France 27,Norway 4,Greece 3,Malta 3,Sweden 2,
Ireland 2,Italy 1,Belgium 1, Luxembourg 1
with much fewer cases reported. Maybe alltogether they have 19000 cases as reported in Germany.
OK, some French deaths are from the colonies, some countries stopped counting and reporting
all cases as Germany does, but the numbers are still strange.
Normal is das nich
german-docter
Well-known member
Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths
gsgs,
IMO it is not unusual ! I think, the rate of underreporting of cases in other European countries is much worse than in Germany (Spain for example: For a while there had been more cases of novel influenza H1N1 in German tourists returning from Spain then Spanish in-country cases).
Take a look at the ECDC map:
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/PublishingImages/EU_Map_web.jpg
(copy see attechment)
The pandemic progress clearly goes from west (atlantic coast) to the east of Europe. IMO CFR at this time (!) is lower in Europe then expected.
gsgs,
IMO it is not unusual ! I think, the rate of underreporting of cases in other European countries is much worse than in Germany (Spain for example: For a while there had been more cases of novel influenza H1N1 in German tourists returning from Spain then Spanish in-country cases).
Take a look at the ECDC map:
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/PublishingImages/EU_Map_web.jpg
(copy see attechment)
The pandemic progress clearly goes from west (atlantic coast) to the east of Europe. IMO CFR at this time (!) is lower in Europe then expected.
