_|EID: Popular and Scientific Attitudes Regarding Pandemic Influenza|_

[tropical]

Re: _|EID: Popular and Scientific Attitudes Regarding Pandemic Influenza|_

#1:
"The authors? results, however, can only be considered indicative if Americans? perceptions of pandemic influenza during the next pandemic are comparable to those
associated with the hypothetical event they imagined while participating in the survey by Blendon et al."

Well, if that survey pictured the pandemic scenario possibilities as it does in a above "disclaimer like" sentence, it's not surprising the outcome.

[Giuseppe]

DOI: 10.3201/eid1409.080647 -

Suggested citation for this article: Doshi P. Popular and scientific attitudes regarding pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Sep; [Epub ahead of print]

Popular and Scientific Attitudes Regarding Pandemic Influenza

To the Editor: Blendon et al. (1) described a survey of public attitudes regarding
Americans? willingness and ability to follow the advice of public health officials during a severe influenza pandemic.

The authors? results, however, can only be considered indicative if Americans? perceptions of pandemic influenza during the next pandemic are comparable to those
associated with the hypothetical event they imagined while participating in the survey by Blendon et al.

By asking respondents to imagine a ?severe outbreak? of ?a new type of flu,? the authors likely portrayed to survey participants an image of pandemic flu as an event starkly different from ordinary flu seasons.

Although such a contrast reinforces popular perceptions of pandemic flu as a catastrophic event (2), it is not supported by historical studies which show that, in terms of deaths, recent pandemics have been comparable to (3) or less deadly than (4) ordinary influenza seasons.

A gap thus exists between the perceptions and reality of pandemic influenza.

Although the authors described pandemic flu as an ?unfamiliar crisis? that ?many of the respondents may not have been familiar with,? in actuality, 39% of survey respondents were >50 years of age and therefore had firsthand experience of 1 or more past pandemics. (The last 2 pandemics occurred in 1957 and 1968; a pandemic was predicted in 1976, but never materialized.)

Whether those respondents were aware that they had lived through past pandemics is a question with important implications for the survey results, but unfortunately, this understanding was not queried by the authors.

For example, would all of the 94% of respondents who reported a willingness to isolate
themselves at home for 7?10 days if that was recommended by health authorities?in effect, ?voluntarily? placing themselves in quarantine?also be willing to do so during a pandemic no more severe ordinary influenza?

If even those who have experienced pandemics do not recall them as particularly
memorable events, it calls for a rethinking of public communication strategies with respect to influenza.

Perhaps a first step is to acknowledge that as the past 2 pandemics have not been
public health crises, the next pandemic may likewise also not be a crisis.

Peter Doshi

Author affiliation: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
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http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/14/9/pdfs/08-0647.pdf
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