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Pandemic Influenza, Worker Absenteeism and Impacts on Freight
Transportation
Abstract
A pandemic influenza outbreak could cause serious
disruption to operations of several critical
infrastructures and concern about the effects of
such disruptions is a matter of public concern.
This paper focuses on freight transportation
services, particularly rail and port operations. It
develops models to assess the likely impacts of
varying levels of worker absenteeism on the
performance of these critical systems. Using
current data on performance of specific rail and
port facilities, we reach some conclusions about
the likelihood of severe operational disruption
under varying assumptions about the absentee rate
and draw out implications that would be of
government concern.
1. Introduction
Influenza viruses have presented a threat to the
health of animal and human populations for
centuries. Pandemics occur when a new strain of
influenza virus emerges, and develops the ability to
infect and be passed between humans. Because
humans have little immunity to the new virus, a
worldwide epidemic, or pandemic, can ensue.
In 1997, the H5N1 influenza virus emerged in
chickens in Hong Kong. The virus has shown the
ability to infect multiple species, including
migratory birds, pigs, cats and humans. While it is
impossible to predict whether the H5N1 virus will
lead to a pandemic, history suggests that a new
influenza virus will emerge at some point and
spread quickly through an unprotected human
population. The impact of a pandemic is likely to
be pervasive, removing essential personnel from
the workplace for extended periods. This has
significant ramifications for the economy, national
security, and the basic functioning of society.
An area of particular concern is the potential
effects of worker absenteeism on the functioning of
critical infrastructures in our society. In 1997, the
report of the U.S. President’s Commission on
Critical Infrastructure Protection identified eight
critical infrastructures “whose incapacity or
destruction would have a debilitating impact on our
defense and economic security” [13]. In subsequent
years, this list of critical infrastructures has been
expanded and now includes a set of 17 critical
infrastructures / key resources identified in the
National Infrastructure Protection Plan created by
the Department of Homeland Security [16].
An important part of government planning for
the possibility of a pandemic influenza episode is
to understand the potential impacts on the
functioning of critical infrastructures. This portion
of the government’s role in creating a pandemic
influenza response plan is part of the homeland
security mission.
This paper focuses on the transportation
infrastructure, and particularly on the effects of
large-scale absenteeism in freight transportation.
We focus on freight transportation services because
the demand for freight movements is unlikely to
fall very much during a pandemic episode – the
basic needs of people for food and a wide variety
of other consumer goods will continue, and this
drives movements of all types of materials through
the transportation system....
http://csdl2.computer.org/comp/proce...0/30750206.pdf
Transportation
Abstract
A pandemic influenza outbreak could cause serious
disruption to operations of several critical
infrastructures and concern about the effects of
such disruptions is a matter of public concern.
This paper focuses on freight transportation
services, particularly rail and port operations. It
develops models to assess the likely impacts of
varying levels of worker absenteeism on the
performance of these critical systems. Using
current data on performance of specific rail and
port facilities, we reach some conclusions about
the likelihood of severe operational disruption
under varying assumptions about the absentee rate
and draw out implications that would be of
government concern.
1. Introduction
Influenza viruses have presented a threat to the
health of animal and human populations for
centuries. Pandemics occur when a new strain of
influenza virus emerges, and develops the ability to
infect and be passed between humans. Because
humans have little immunity to the new virus, a
worldwide epidemic, or pandemic, can ensue.
In 1997, the H5N1 influenza virus emerged in
chickens in Hong Kong. The virus has shown the
ability to infect multiple species, including
migratory birds, pigs, cats and humans. While it is
impossible to predict whether the H5N1 virus will
lead to a pandemic, history suggests that a new
influenza virus will emerge at some point and
spread quickly through an unprotected human
population. The impact of a pandemic is likely to
be pervasive, removing essential personnel from
the workplace for extended periods. This has
significant ramifications for the economy, national
security, and the basic functioning of society.
An area of particular concern is the potential
effects of worker absenteeism on the functioning of
critical infrastructures in our society. In 1997, the
report of the U.S. President’s Commission on
Critical Infrastructure Protection identified eight
critical infrastructures “whose incapacity or
destruction would have a debilitating impact on our
defense and economic security” [13]. In subsequent
years, this list of critical infrastructures has been
expanded and now includes a set of 17 critical
infrastructures / key resources identified in the
National Infrastructure Protection Plan created by
the Department of Homeland Security [16].
An important part of government planning for
the possibility of a pandemic influenza episode is
to understand the potential impacts on the
functioning of critical infrastructures. This portion
of the government’s role in creating a pandemic
influenza response plan is part of the homeland
security mission.
This paper focuses on the transportation
infrastructure, and particularly on the effects of
large-scale absenteeism in freight transportation.
We focus on freight transportation services because
the demand for freight movements is unlikely to
fall very much during a pandemic episode – the
basic needs of people for food and a wide variety
of other consumer goods will continue, and this
drives movements of all types of materials through
the transportation system....
http://csdl2.computer.org/comp/proce...0/30750206.pdf
