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Counting the economic cost of a pandemic
Friday, 16 May 2008
Even a mild outbreak of virulent flu would likely cost B.C. $759 million in lost wages
Glen Korstrom
BC?s economy would take an estimated $759.4 million hit in lost work time were a mild pandemic to sweep across the province.
That?s a fraction of B.C.?s $179.7 billion gross domestic product, but it would still wreak havoc on business.
A severe pandemic could last years and cripple tourism, transportation and other sectors.
But B.C. Centre for Disease Control epidemiologist Aleina Tweed said a moderate pandemic could run its course in eight months.
?The problem is that it?s all estimates,? Tweed said. ?It?s impossible to be exact, because my crystal ball is broken.?
But she said pandemics usually come in several waves and she estimated that in a moderate pandemic:
?about 25% of B.C.?s workforce would be off sick for a week within its first four- to six-week wave;
?between 15% and 20% would become ill for a week in its four- to six-week second wave; and
?between 5% and 10% of the workforce would be off sick for a week in its final four- to six-week wave.
Tweed said the waves can each be separated by a month or more.
Helmut Pastrick, who is chief economist at the Credit Union Central of British Columbia, said the numbers translate into a $759.4 million hit to the province?s economy in lost wages.
Meanwhile, Leger Marketing released a survey December 12 that found 54% of workers would be uncomfortable going to work if several people in their community were diagnosed with pandemic influenza.
The GlaxoSmithKline-sponsored survey also found that more than 90% of respondents would be more likely to report for work if their employer had plans to provide them with preventive flu medicines.
Richard Ivey School of Business professor Guy Holburn extrapolated from the survey?s findings that a pandemic could cost the Canadian economy $9 billion.
Pastrick calculated his estimate based on Statistics Canada?s finding that the average B.C. worker ? including both full-time and part-time employees ? earns $750 per week.
Pastrick rounded the province?s employed population to 2.25 million.
So if Tweed?s estimates are accurate, 562,500 British Columbians would be off sick for one week in the pandemic?s first wave, 281,250 in the second and 168,750 in the third.
?There?s a multiplier effect as well, depending on the pandemic,? Pastrick said. ?With a quarter of colleagues missing, to what effect does that impact workflows and productivity? Normal operation of companies and their business processes would be negatively affected, and losses would occur there. That?s not just wages lost, but business output and business income losses.? ?
gkorstrom@biv.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
Business in Vancouver May 13-19, 2008; issue
Counting the economic cost of a pandemic
Friday, 16 May 2008
Even a mild outbreak of virulent flu would likely cost B.C. $759 million in lost wages
Glen Korstrom
BC?s economy would take an estimated $759.4 million hit in lost work time were a mild pandemic to sweep across the province.
That?s a fraction of B.C.?s $179.7 billion gross domestic product, but it would still wreak havoc on business.
A severe pandemic could last years and cripple tourism, transportation and other sectors.
But B.C. Centre for Disease Control epidemiologist Aleina Tweed said a moderate pandemic could run its course in eight months.
?The problem is that it?s all estimates,? Tweed said. ?It?s impossible to be exact, because my crystal ball is broken.?
But she said pandemics usually come in several waves and she estimated that in a moderate pandemic:
?about 25% of B.C.?s workforce would be off sick for a week within its first four- to six-week wave;
?between 15% and 20% would become ill for a week in its four- to six-week second wave; and
?between 5% and 10% of the workforce would be off sick for a week in its final four- to six-week wave.
Tweed said the waves can each be separated by a month or more.
Helmut Pastrick, who is chief economist at the Credit Union Central of British Columbia, said the numbers translate into a $759.4 million hit to the province?s economy in lost wages.
Meanwhile, Leger Marketing released a survey December 12 that found 54% of workers would be uncomfortable going to work if several people in their community were diagnosed with pandemic influenza.
The GlaxoSmithKline-sponsored survey also found that more than 90% of respondents would be more likely to report for work if their employer had plans to provide them with preventive flu medicines.
Richard Ivey School of Business professor Guy Holburn extrapolated from the survey?s findings that a pandemic could cost the Canadian economy $9 billion.
Pastrick calculated his estimate based on Statistics Canada?s finding that the average B.C. worker ? including both full-time and part-time employees ? earns $750 per week.
Pastrick rounded the province?s employed population to 2.25 million.
So if Tweed?s estimates are accurate, 562,500 British Columbians would be off sick for one week in the pandemic?s first wave, 281,250 in the second and 168,750 in the third.
?There?s a multiplier effect as well, depending on the pandemic,? Pastrick said. ?With a quarter of colleagues missing, to what effect does that impact workflows and productivity? Normal operation of companies and their business processes would be negatively affected, and losses would occur there. That?s not just wages lost, but business output and business income losses.? ?
gkorstrom@biv.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
Business in Vancouver May 13-19, 2008; issue