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F1000Res
. 2020 Oct 15;9:1247.
doi: 10.12688/f1000research.26975.1. eCollection 2020.
The discounted value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France
Joses Muthuri Kirigia 1 , Rose Nabi Deborah Karimi Muthuri 2 , Lenity Honesty Kainyu Nkanata 1 , Newton Gitonga Muthuri 3
Affiliations
- PMID: 33968375
- PMCID: PMC8082570
- DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.26975.1
Abstract
Background: This study estimates the total discounted value of human lives lost (TDVHL) due to COVID-19 in France as of 14 September 2020. Methods: The human capital approach (HCA) model was used to estimate the TDVHL of the 30,916 human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France; i.e., assuming a discount rate of 3% and the national average life expectancy at birth of 83.13 years. To test the robustness of the estimated TDVHL, the model was rerun (a) using 5% and 10% discount rates, while holding the French average life expectancy constant; and (b) consecutively substituting national life expectancy with the world average life expectancy of 73.2 years and the world highest life expectancy of 88.17 years. Results: The human lives lost had a TDVHL of Int$10,492,290,194, and an average value of Int$339,381 per human life lost. Rerun of the HCA model with 5% and 10% discount rates decreased TDVHL by Int$1,304,764,602 (12.4%) and Int$3,506,938,312 (33%), respectively. Re-calculation of the model with the world average life expectancy decreased the TDVHL by Int$7,750,187,267 (73.87%). Contrastingly, re-estimation of the model with the world's highest life expectancy augmented TDVHL by Int$3,744,263,463 (35.7%). Conclusions: The average discounted economic value per human life lost due to COVID-19 of Int$339,381 is 8-fold the France gross domestic product per person. Such evidence constitutes an additional argument for health policy makers when making a case for increased investment to optimise France's International Health Regulation capacities and coverage of essential health services, and safely managed water and sanitation services.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus disease; France; Gross Domestic Product; Value of human life.