The fallacy of guesswork

[Goju]

Can someone please explain what the heck is going on here?

There is an obvious cluster (and a big one) however WHO says there is no cluster

Reports indicate many suspected or sick people yet there are many negative tests results.

Earlier this week it looked very bad relative to past outbreaks. Toward the end on this week, it looked like 4 seperate human outbreaks?

Is there a Tamiflu blanket being implemented?
Are there quarentines?

Can anyone shed some light on this?
Does anyone think there is a campaign to smother news?

I am so confused.

[Laidback Al]

Re: INDONESIA - Garut Cluster Part IV

Goju, let me try to provide some perspective. Posters on this thread (Garut I-IV) have combed through MSM and local Indonesia news to develop a detailed picture of the confirmed and suspected cases in the Garut area since the end of July. In total, about 25-35 individuals have been or are being tracked. Of these, only three have been confirmed by WHO, and six have died. Does this sound like a lot? Maybe.

But yesterday, I posted a link to Thailand where they are waiting on the H5N1 test results of 74 suspected cases. (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9627) That is, Thailand has almost twice as many suspected cases as are being discussed in this thread. I think the availability of www.toggletext.com and Theresa42's tremendous effort to track these cases has given us some tunnel vision on H5N1 in Southeast Asia. It is the availability of many news articles and information about the Garut area that has spurred the discussions on this thread. You can not conclude that there is a campaign to smother the news.

Thailand is providing some transparency by regularly listing their suspected cases. But the news about suspected individual cases in Thailand is not filtering out to us yet. There could be just as many "clusters" or fewer "clusters" with more individuals. Or, they could all eventually test absolutely negative.

We have to watch as the news unfolds, we can't speed up the process without making rash guesses or making unsupported assumptions about an impending pandemic.

[Goju]

Re: INDONESIA - Garut Cluster Part IV

Thanks LBA!

Great hard working group here.

signed..... still confused

[sharon sanders]

Re: The fallacy of guesswork

"Web communities are relatively new social entities. They have the reach of world wide media but the intimacy of telephone conversations. This intimacy lends itself to informality which in turns leads to less inhibition in expression. This less inhibition can slip into disinhibition which can then spiral destructively out of reasonable boundaries. When presented with a potential threat the individual may act out irrationally and in turn trigger others to act out. A well known analogy would be yelling ?fire? in a theater.
We can manage the risk of disinhibition and panic by 1) reminding individuals of their responsibilities as members of the group and 2) providing a means of communicating their concerns so that they can see a effective response {risk communications ? discussed in other posts]. The first strategy the leadership of flutrackers.com has exercised well. The second is more challenging because it is outside the control of flutrackers.com. As a group I think we need to learn how we can communicate legitimate concerns to authorities and observe a responsible response. In some ways, maybe the forum can take comfort in the successful campaign by Dr. Niman to get the H5N1 sequences released.

Sometimes what may start out as acute anxiety as it persists becomes transformed into smoldering or even boiling anger. This anger may manifest with suspicions expressed towards authorities, accusations of malfeasance, or even outright desires to see harm (punishment) done the perceived offenders. These individuals are either searching within a group for like minded comrades, or may challenge some of the group administrators of members as surrogate targets for authorities. In either case, their intrusiveness or ranting has an overall destructive impact on the group and they have to be curtailed. Hopefully appeal to their sense of overall mission can help them put aside their anger so that they can participate constructively....."

Christian Rivers (Joe Thornton M.D.)
<!-- / message -->

[JJackson]

Re: The fallacy of guesswork

There seems to have been a shift in the manner in which some countries are classifying 'suspect' cases.

This started in Thailand is now creeping into Indonesia and is to be applauded. The problem is the transition period, which we are now in, when the authorities is Thailand shift from 'we are bird to free' to 'we have 1000+ suspect cases' almost over night. This understandably freaked many of us out but it is not a real change in their status, they have just reclassified everyone with BF like symptoms as 'suspect' until proved otherwise. Nearly all of the original 1000 have tested negative but there are many new cases being added to the list. This is a much better system as it allows you to see a surge in suspect cases prior to test confirmation and many more 'possibles' are being tested. More transparency must be a good thing and once we have adjusted we won't want to go back.

As to the current Indo situation my take is that this is probably not 'it'. I suspect there is h2h transmission (but not very efficient) also now the Tamiflu is being handed out, the poultry culled and the place cleaned up & disinfected all will peter out. We dodged the bullit once more but one of these clusters will be different; the virus will be that little bit better adapted, the cluster will be a bit bigger and will have enough time to hone its skills and get out of the box.

[Siamese]

Re: The fallacy of guesswork

You may be very correct JJackson, however in the meantime, we are sitting on pins and needles. Yes we have been here before, but somehow this seems bigger more threatening this time. What happens next, no one knows, I am afraid that in a week we will see a real jump in cases, as the blanket of Tamiflu ends.
Also, are these people taking their pills as directed? Considering that they didn't know about Bird Flu. The social distancing is good.

[Goju]

Re: The fallacy of guesswork

There are a lot of people to "tamiflu" and lots of real estate to clean.

I don't think they will be able to stop anything... I seriously doubt if they could even slow this thing down.

As in 1918, the water will probably come to a boil one bubble at a time... then increasing in number and intensity.

This could take years to ramp up, months or tonight.

Yes... sitting on pins and needles... but we have been sitting on them for so long, my bottom is getting used to it.

It's just seeing all those "suspected" cases now make me very nervous. There have been many false positives this past year. If there are BF victims, they could be masked by seasonal outbreaks. This is not news to us.

Thus the pandemic could pop unseen until there are hundreds of dead and silent worldwide spread.

[Snowy Owl]

Re: The fallacy of guesswork

Yes... sitting on pins and needles... but we have been sitting on them for so long, my bottom is getting used to it.

The Fakir Asan as they say in India.

After some time, pins and needles does not mind after awhile said the Fakir,
Why dontcha stand up and walk said Siddharta.

Then the Fakir had Samadhi.

Chochin Kora&#239; whispers