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Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns
Katie Mercer, Canwest News Service
Published: 1 hour ago
VANCOUVER - During an influenza pandemic, freighters will be docked, medications will be scarce and people will starve, a leading international expert told a conference Wednesday.
"More people will likely die from this than from the pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
North American pandemic planning hasn't factored in its dependency on Asian markets, Osterholm told attendees to the "Are You Ready for a Pandemic?" conference.
The impending pandemic will most likely originate in Asia, the "roulette table" for serious H5N1 flu virus genetic mutations that cause pandemics, warned Osterholm. If that happens, trade supply lines will die along with the influenza's victims, he added.
Osterholm's apocalyptic warnings have lauded him the "Chicken Little" of influenza pandemics by some. Panicked and angry e-mail responses to his appearance on Oprah last year single-handily shut down his university's computer server.
But international influenza researchers predict the next pandemic will be similar to the 1918-19 Spanish Flu, which killed more than 40 million people.
The next pandemic will be global in just weeks and will last 12 to 18 months, Osterholm said, although noting that the economic effects will be instantaneous.
The problem is that pandemic planning in North America has been based on all other factors such as trade and electricity being normal, but that won't be the case, said Osterholm.
That's because many highly skilled workers such as the 50,000 freighter employees worldwide "are not on any vaccine plan in any country," he said. It takes two people to navigate the freighters coming in daily. Take one away and those freighters and their supplies will remain docked, leaving people around the world, including in North America, struggling with dwindling food and medical supplies.
Replenishment of lifesaving generic medications, most of which are manufactured in China and India, won't be shipped. And influenza-testing kits, respiratory masks and the raw materials to make them all come from Asia, warned Osterholm.
Even continental trade will be impacted if borders close as a preventative measure.
"Border closings aren't going to make a difference in spreading influenza, but they make a difference when it comes to transportation issues," he said.
But that's only if modes of transportation are still operational. The moral dilemma of who receives available vaccines first is still being debated and talks in the United States seem to point to children and mothers, Osterholm said.
But he's not convinced this is a viable option.
"More kids and mothers will die if we don't protect our electricity workers, miners, first responders and health-care workers," said Osterholm. Without these workers, North America could face electricity and gas shortages, derailing trains and putting the brakes on truck transportation.
These are the sort of factors businesses and industries need to start preparing for, said Frank Welsh, director of the office of emergency preparedness at Public Health Agency of Canada.
"We need to look forward and figure out together how we are going to recover."
? Vancouver Province 2008
Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns
Katie Mercer, Canwest News Service
Published: 1 hour ago
VANCOUVER - During an influenza pandemic, freighters will be docked, medications will be scarce and people will starve, a leading international expert told a conference Wednesday.
"More people will likely die from this than from the pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
North American pandemic planning hasn't factored in its dependency on Asian markets, Osterholm told attendees to the "Are You Ready for a Pandemic?" conference.
The impending pandemic will most likely originate in Asia, the "roulette table" for serious H5N1 flu virus genetic mutations that cause pandemics, warned Osterholm. If that happens, trade supply lines will die along with the influenza's victims, he added.
Osterholm's apocalyptic warnings have lauded him the "Chicken Little" of influenza pandemics by some. Panicked and angry e-mail responses to his appearance on Oprah last year single-handily shut down his university's computer server.
But international influenza researchers predict the next pandemic will be similar to the 1918-19 Spanish Flu, which killed more than 40 million people.
The next pandemic will be global in just weeks and will last 12 to 18 months, Osterholm said, although noting that the economic effects will be instantaneous.
The problem is that pandemic planning in North America has been based on all other factors such as trade and electricity being normal, but that won't be the case, said Osterholm.
That's because many highly skilled workers such as the 50,000 freighter employees worldwide "are not on any vaccine plan in any country," he said. It takes two people to navigate the freighters coming in daily. Take one away and those freighters and their supplies will remain docked, leaving people around the world, including in North America, struggling with dwindling food and medical supplies.
Replenishment of lifesaving generic medications, most of which are manufactured in China and India, won't be shipped. And influenza-testing kits, respiratory masks and the raw materials to make them all come from Asia, warned Osterholm.
Even continental trade will be impacted if borders close as a preventative measure.
"Border closings aren't going to make a difference in spreading influenza, but they make a difference when it comes to transportation issues," he said.
But that's only if modes of transportation are still operational. The moral dilemma of who receives available vaccines first is still being debated and talks in the United States seem to point to children and mothers, Osterholm said.
But he's not convinced this is a viable option.
"More kids and mothers will die if we don't protect our electricity workers, miners, first responders and health-care workers," said Osterholm. Without these workers, North America could face electricity and gas shortages, derailing trains and putting the brakes on truck transportation.
These are the sort of factors businesses and industries need to start preparing for, said Frank Welsh, director of the office of emergency preparedness at Public Health Agency of Canada.
"We need to look forward and figure out together how we are going to recover."
? Vancouver Province 2008
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