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Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

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  • #1

    Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

    The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

    Colin A. Russell,1 Terry C. Jones,1,2,3 Ian G. Barr,4 Nancy J. Cox,5 Rebecca J. Garten,5 Vicky Gregory,6 Ian D. Gust,4 Alan W. Hampson,4 Alan J. Hay,6 Aeron C. Hurt,4 Jan C. de Jong,2 Anne Kelso,4 Alexander I. Klimov,5 Tsutomu Kageyama,7 Naomi Komadina,4 Alan S. Lapedes,8 Yi P. Lin,6 Ana Mosterin,1,3 Masatsugu Obuchi,7 Takato Odagiri,7 Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus,2 Guus F. Rimmelzwaan,2 Michael W. Shaw,5 Eugene Skepner,1 Klaus Stohr,9 Masato Tashiro,7 Ron A. M. Fouchier,2 Derek J. Smith1,2*

    Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002?2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.

    1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
    2 Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
    3 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
    4 World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Melbourne, Australia.
    5 WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
    6 WHO Collaborating Centre for Influenza, National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), London, UK.
    7 WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, National Institute for Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.
    8 Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
    9 Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Cambridge, MA, USA.


    * To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dsmith@zoo.cam.ac.uk



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    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/320/5874/340
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  • #2
    Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

    Flu Viruses Take One-way Ticket Out Of Asia, Then Travel The World

    ScienceDaily (Apr. 17, 2008) ? Seasonal influenza strains constantly evolve in overlapping epidemics in Asia and sweep the rest of the world each year, an international research team has found.


    These findings suggest that by focusing surveillance efforts on East and Southeast Asia, researchers may be able to extend their forecast of the flu strains most likely to cause epidemics, which may in turn help experts decide which strains should go in the flu vaccine each year.

    The study, by a team of researchers from Europe, Australia, Japan and the United States, appears in the 18 April issue of the journal Science.

    "The flu virus is constantly mutating, so it's a major challenge for public health as well as a fascinating example of evolution in action. This study advances our knowledge of how new flu strains spread across the globe and how epidemics arise," said Katrina Kelner, Science's deputy managing editor, life sciences.

    Colin Russell of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom and his colleagues analyzed 13,000 samples of influenza A (H3N2) virus, collected across six continents from 2002 to 2007 by the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance Network. This subtype of influenza is currently the major cause of flu-related illness and death in humans.

    The researchers compared physical differences in a surface protein, called hemagglutinin, across the different samples. Hemagglutinin is the primary target of the immune response, and even small changes can allow the virus to evade the immune system and cause disease.

    In a subset of the samples, the researchers also compared the sequences of the gene that codes for hemagglutinin.

    Together, these analyses allowed the researchers to identify different strains of A (H3N2) as they arrived at new locations around the world over the five-year period. The results revealed that strains emerge in East and Southeast Asia and then about six to nine months later reach Europe and North America. Several months later still, the strains arrive in South America. Essentially, once the strains leave East and Southeast Asia they enter an evolutionary graveyard.

    "The ultimate goal of our collaboration is to increase our ability to predict the evolution of influenza viruses. This study is one step along that path and in particular highlights the importance of ongoing collaborations and surveillance in East and Southeast Asia, and of expanding these collaborations in the future," said Derek Smith of the University of Cambridge, who is the corresponding author of the study.

    Annual influenza epidemics are thought to result in 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths every year, according to the World Health Organization.

    A (H3N2) is a subtype of the influenza A virus, and it is one of the three flu viruses included -- in dead or in a weakened state -- in the flu vaccine. The others are the influenza A (H1N1) subtype and the influenza B virus. Each year, the World Health Organization decides which strains within these three categories to include in the next vaccine, based on the recent activity of strains that are currently circulation.

    The authors emphasized that the flu vaccine currently works extremely well, protecting about 300 million people from the disease each year, and that people should continue to be vaccinated annually. But, from time to time, a new strain begins infecting people after the vaccine has already been produced.

    For decades, researchers haven't known how influenza viruses migrate around the world. According to some of the scenarios that have been proposed, the viruses may migrate between the Northern and Southern hemispheres following the seasons, or they may have come out of the tropics where they were thought to circulate continuously, or they may have come out of China.

    The Science study shows instead that each year since 2002, influenza A (H3N2) viruses have migrated out of what the authors call the "East and Southeast Asian circulation network," and from there spread around the world.

    Why Asia" For reasons that aren't well-understood, flu epidemics break out during the rainy seasons in the tropics of East and Southeast Asia. On continents at higher latitudes, on the other hand, flu season simply occurs for a few months during the wintertime. Within Asia, different regions experience the rainy season at different times of year.

    "Flu epidemics appear to be driven by seasonal factors such as winter, or rainy seasons. So there can be cities that are only 700 miles away from each other, such as Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, which have epidemics six months apart. There is a lot of variability like this in East and Southeast Asia, so lots of opportunity for an epidemic in one country to seed an epidemic to another nearby country, like a baton passed by runners in a relay race," Smith said.

    "Our study is an example of the tremendous synergy between influenza science and public health," he said. "The World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance Network tracks the evolution of influenza viruses for the primary purpose of influenza vaccine strain selection, but this also enables basic work on evolution."

    "The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses," by C.A. Russell; T.C. Jones; A, Mosterin; E. Skepner; D.J. Smith at University of Cambridge in Cambridge, UK; T.C. Jones; J.C. de Jong; A.D.M.E. Osterhaus; G.F. Rimmelzwaan; R.A.M. Fouchier; D.J. Smith at Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, Netherlands; T.C. Jones; A. Mosterin at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, Spain; I.G. Barr; N.J. Cox; R.J. Garten; V. Gregory; I.D. Gust; A.W. Hampson; A.J. Hay; A.C. Hurt; A. Kelso; A.I. Klimov; T. Kageyama; N. Komadina; Y.P. Lin; M. Obuchi; T. Odagiri; M.W. Shaw; M. Tashiro at World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, VIC, Australia; N.J. Cox; R.J. Garten; A.I. Kilmov; M.W. Shaw at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, GA; V. Gregory; A.J. Hay; Y.P. Lin at National Institute for Medical Research in London, UK; T. Kageyama; M. Obuchi; T. Odagiri; M. Tashiro at National Institute for Infectious Diseases in Tokyo, Japan; A.S. Lapedes at Los Alamos National Laboratory in Los Alamos, NM; K. Stohr at Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics in Boston, MA.

    This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health Director's Pioneer Award, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the NWO Netherlands Influenza Vaccine Research Centre, the Australian Government Department of Health and Aging, and the Medical Research Council.

    Adapted from materials provided by American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080416141011.htm

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

      also here:
      Flu Viruses Take One-way Ticket Out Of Asia, Then Travel The World - FluTrackers News and Information
      http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64893


      28 authors ! They must have known this since months, years.
      I.e. when the other papers came out, about the Danish sequences,
      about the NZ+AUS+USA - sequences
      about the NZ+US sequences http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64760
      But they were not allowed to talk about it earlier in public ?!

      I feel, that the groups should better cooperate,
      I feel, that they should give preliminary infos before
      the final papers appear.

      Can a pandemic start in Africa or Europe or America or Indonesia ?
      Did the 1918 pandemic also start in SE-Asia ?
      Is it the Monsun rain that creates pandemics ?
      Do we always have 6 months ?
      Does flu in America,Europe always die ? Aren't there any polymorphisms
      or reassortments which can be tracked to America and which survive several seasons ?

      Birdflu apparantly is different, Qinghai-strain , Indonesian strain evolve
      outside SE-Asia


      not much discussion here,
      is this beeing discussed on other boards,letters,conferences,papers ?
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

        that means, that before there was travel by ship from Europe
        to Eastern Asia, around 1600, there was no influenza in Europe.

        The 1580-pandemic was recently suspected to have been pertussis,
        not influenza.



        year
        contagiousness-category
        number of waves
        locations
        -when and where started
        [-serotype]


        influenza before 1600:

        -412 ? ? Eu
        -212 ? ? Eu(Achrodina?)
        +855 ? ? Persia,central Asia (Ebn-al-Atir)
        1173 1 ? Eu
        1200-1500 [7]
        1403 ? ? F
        1427
        1494 3 ? Am
        1510 2 ? Af,Eu
        1557 1 ? Eu,Jp - Jul
        1580 3 ? Eu,Af,nA - Jun Af,As
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

          that would be bad news, because it means that our historical
          experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years.

          And the argument
          that something really bad such as 1918 or worse didn't happen
          before in human history is less valid.
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

            "our historical experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years."

            Can it be scientificaly extracted by the archeological mass graves remains from more ancient epoques what kind of illness was exactly plaguing them?

            A virus (flu) maybe can be ident. from the remains by modern science from more ancient times also?

            If yes, the results of studies that isolated such virus from more ancient periods are reacheable?

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

              Originally posted by tropical View Post
              "our historical experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years."

              Can it be scientificaly extracted by the archeological mass graves remains from more ancient epoques what kind of illness was exactly plaguing them?

              A virus (flu) maybe can be ident. from the remains by modern science from more ancient times also?

              If yes, the results of studies that isolated such virus from more ancient periods are reacheable?
              Iceland would be a perfect site, but thebn again we know that they have been visited by VIkings since the 800d.

              They came with Eric le Rouge in Vinland back around 960. First Nations of the Norther East Coast still have historical artifacts of this.

              But no records if the Vikings infected us with some diseases.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                we can best see this from reports of doctors,
                describing the diseases,symptoms and spread.

                However, as we know it's difficult to diagnose influenza
                and PCR or blood-examining confirm/disproof the diagnosis
                with 50%

                But pandemics are typical and should identify flu.

                Well, 1580 was a pandemic, but flu or pertussis ?
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                  what's the difference between antigenic and genetic - evolution/analysis ?

                  I remember a recent paper about flu in Brasil,
                  which reports flu traveling from the northern hemisphere
                  to the southern hemisphere and back

                  this doesn't so well fit with the picture that it is seeded
                  newly from Asia each season.
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                    what's the difference between antigenic and genetic - evolution/analysis ?

                    I remember a recent paper about flu in Brasil,
                    which reports flu traveling from the northern hemisphere
                    to the southern hemisphere and back

                    this doesn't so well fit with the picture that it is seeded
                    newly from Asia each season.
                    Antigenic looks at antigens.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                      GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
                      1499+67

                      not (yet) there


                      about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
                      1500 from the paper ?

                      The problem is, we usually only have the year, not the month.
                      So the traveling is hard to follow
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                        GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
                        1499+67

                        not (yet) there


                        about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
                        1500 from the paper ?
                        They have been withheld.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                          Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                          GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
                          1499+67

                          not (yet) there


                          about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
                          1500 from the paper ?

                          The problem is, we usually only have the year, not the month.
                          So the traveling is hard to follow

                          </PRE>WUHAN/359/1995 CHINA EU501120
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                          HONG-KONG/2831/2005 HONG-KONG EU501673
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                          HONG-KONG/2851/2005 HONG-KONG EU501675
                          HONG-KONG/2897/2005 HONG-KONG EU501676
                          HONG-KONG/2971/2005 HONG-KONG EU501677
                          HONG-KONG/4607/2005 HONG-KONG EU501678
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                          HYOGO/7/2005 JAPAN EU501681
                          HYOGO/35/2005 JAPAN EU501682
                          HYOGO/36/2005 JAPAN EU501683
                          HYOGO/39/2005 JAPAN EU501684
                          INCHEON/243/2005 KOREA EU501685
                          ISHIKAWA/77/2005 JAPAN EU501686
                          IWATE/25/2005 JAPAN EU501687
                          IWATE/72/2005 JAPAN EU501688
                          JIANGXI/169/2005 CHINA EU501689
                          JIANGXI/198/2005 CHINA EU501690
                          JIANGXI/206/2005 CHINA EU501691
                          JOHANNESBURG/485/2005 SOUTH-AFRICA EU501692
                          KAGAWA/15/2005 JAPAN EU501693
                          KAGOSHIMA/37/2005 JAPAN EU501694
                          KANAGAWA/6/2005 JAPAN EU501695
                          KANAGAWA/31/2005 JAPAN EU501696
                          KANAGAWA/75/2005 JAPAN EU501697
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                          KHABAROVSK/9/2005 RUSSIA EU501699
                          KITAKYUSHU/2/2005 JAPAN EU501700
                          KOBE/14/2005 JAPAN EU501701
                          KOBE/73/2005 JAPAN EU501702
                          KOBE/74/2005 JAPAN EU501703
                          KYOTO/3/2005 JAPAN EU501704
                          KYOTO/9/2005 JAPAN EU501705
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                          KYUNGGI/205/2005 KOREA EU501707
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                          LYON/108/2005 FRANCE EU501710
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                          MACAU/482/2005 CHINA EU501712
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                          MACAU/561/2005 CHINA EU501714
                          MACAU/747/2005 CHINA EU501715
                          MALAYSIA/99/2005 MALAYSIA EU501716
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                          MALAYSIA/815/2005 MALAYSIA EU501718
                          MIE/1/2005 JAPAN EU501719
                          MIE/10/2005 JAPAN EU501720
                          MIE/25/2005 JAPAN EU501721
                          MIE/29/2005 JAPAN EU501722
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                          NAGANO/1248/2005 JAPAN EU501727
                          NAGASAKI/36/2005 JAPAN EU501728
                          NAGASAKI/50/2005 JAPAN EU501729
                          NAGOYA/12/2005 JAPAN EU501730
                          NAGOYA/13/2005 JAPAN EU501731
                          NARA/26/2005 JAPAN EU501732
                          NARA/33/2005 JAPAN EU501733
                          NEWCALEDONIA/6/2005 NEW-CALEDONIA EU501734
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                          OKAYAMA/15/2005 JAPAN EU501743
                          OKAYAMA/20/2005 JAPAN EU501744
                          OKAYAMA/24/2005 JAPAN EU501745
                          OKAYAMA/29/2005 JAPAN EU501746
                          OKAYAMA/34/2005 JAPAN EU501747
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                          OTAGO/2/2005 NEW-ZEALAND EU501752
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                          PERTH/20/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501755
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                          PHILIPPINES/625/2005 PHILIPPINES EU501757
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                          SAPPORO/156/2005 JAPAN EU501760
                          SENDAI/49/2005 JAPAN EU501761
                          SENDAI/79/2005 JAPAN EU501762
                          SHAANXI/90/2005 CHINA EU501763
                          SHIGA/23/2005 JAPAN EU501764
                          SHIGA/26/2005 JAPAN EU501765
                          SHIMANE/3/2005 JAPAN EU501766
                          SHIMANE/15/2005 JAPAN EU501767
                          SHIMANE/23/2005 JAPAN EU501768
                          SHIMANE/25/2005 JAPAN EU501769
                          SHIZUOKA/3/2005 JAPAN EU501770
                          SHIZUOKA/108/2005 JAPAN EU501771
                          SHIZUOKA/790/2005 JAPAN EU501772
                          SINGAPORE/35/2005 SINGAPORE EU501773
                          SINGAPORE/38/2005 SINGAPORE EU501774
                          SINGAPORE/70/2005 SINGAPORE EU501775
                          SOFIA/682/2005 BULGARIA EU501776
                          SOUTHAUSTRALIA/9/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501777
                          SOUTHAUSTRALIA/37/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501778
                          ST-PETERSBURG/4/2005 RUSSIA EU501779
                          SUKHBAATAR/1568/2005 MONGOLIA EU501780
                          SYDNEY/2/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501781
                          SYDNEY/24/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501782
                          SYDNEY/49/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501783
                          TAIWAN/51/2005 TAIWAN EU501784
                          TAIWAN/53/2005 TAIWAN EU501785
                          TASMANIA/2/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501786
                          THAILAND/36/2005 THAILAND EU501787
                          THAILAND/44/2005 THAILAND EU501788
                          THAILAND/54/2005 THAILAND EU501789
                          THAILAND/123/2005 THAILAND EU501790
                          THAILAND/141/2005 THAILAND EU501791
                          THAILAND/151/2005 THAILAND EU501792
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                          THAILAND/196/2005 THAILAND EU501794
                          THAILAND/220/2005 THAILAND EU501795
                          THAILAND/257/2005 THAILAND EU501796
                          THAILAND/263/2005 THAILAND EU501797
                          THAILAND/286/2005 THAILAND EU501798
                          THAILAND/308/2005 THAILAND EU501799
                          THAILAND/426/2005 THAILAND EU501800
                          THAILAND/496/2005 THAILAND EU501801
                          THAILAND/504/2005 THAILAND EU501802
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                          TIANJIN/454/2005 CHINA EU501806
                          TIANJIN/459/2005 CHINA EU501807
                          TOKUSHIMA/2/2005 JAPAN EU501808
                          TOKYO/10709/2005 JAPAN EU501809
                          TOTTORI/37/2005 JAPAN EU501810
                          TOWNSVILLE/16/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501811
                          TOWNSVILLE/21/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501812
                          TOWNSVILLE/116/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501813
                          TOWNSVILLE/118/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501814
                          TOWNSVILLE/149/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501815
                          TOYAMA/28/2005 JAPAN EU501816
                          TOYAMA/39/2005 JAPAN EU501817
                          ULAANBAATAR/1599/2005 MONGOLIA EU501818
                          ULAANBAATAR/1922/2005 MONGOLIA EU501819
                          ULAANBAATAR/2164/2005 MONGOLIA EU501820
                          ULSAN/198/2005 KOREA EU501821
                          VICTORIA/116/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501822
                          VICTORIA/126/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501823
                          VICTORIA/267/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501824
                          VICTORIA/270/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501825
                          VICTORIA/503/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501826
                          VICTORIA/512/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501827
                          VICTORIA/533/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501828
                          WAIKATO/12/2005 NEW-ZEALAND EU501829
                          WAKAYAMA/1/2005 JAPAN EU501830
                          WELLINGTON/3/2005 NEW-ZEALAND EU501831
                          WELLINGTON/4/2005 NEW-ZEALAND EU501832
                          WISCONSIN/67/2005 USA EU501833
                          WISCONSIN/67-X-PR8-X-161/2005 USA EU501834
                          WISCONSIN/68/2005 USA EU501835
                          WUHAN/158/2005 CHINA EU501836
                          WUHAN/283/2005 CHINA EU501837
                          WUHAN/295/2005 CHINA EU501838
                          YAMAGATA/181/2005 JAPAN EU501839
                          YAMAGATA/190/2005 JAPAN EU501840
                          YAMAGATA/206/2005 JAPAN EU501841
                          YAMAGATA/223/2005 JAPAN EU501842
                          YAMAGATA/227/2005 JAPAN EU501843
                          YAMAGUCHI/25/2005 JAPAN EU501844
                          YAMAGUCHI/35/2005 JAPAN EU501845
                          YAMANASHI/61/2005 JAPAN EU501846
                          YAMANASHI/73/2005 JAPAN EU501847
                          YAMANASHI/74/2005 JAPAN EU501848
                          YAMANASHI/80/2005 JAPAN EU501849
                          YAMANASHI/81/2005 JAPAN EU501850
                          YOKOHAMA/10/2005 JAPAN EU501851
                          YUNNAN/161/2005 CHINA EU501852
                          YUNNAN/395/2005 CHINA EU501853
                          ZHEJIANG/199/2005 CHINA EU501854
                          AICHI/15/2006 JAPAN EU501855
                          AICHI/105/2006 JAPAN EU501856
                          AICHI/200/2006 JAPAN EU501857
                          AKITA/1/2006 JAPAN EU501858
                          AKITA/12/2006 JAPAN EU501859
                          AKITA/17/2006 JAPAN EU501860
                          ALGERIA/453/2006 ALGERIA EU501861
                          AOMORI/3/2006 JAPAN EU501862
                          ARGENTINA/1/2006 ARGENTINA EU501863
                          ASTRAKHAN/172/2006 RUSSIA EU501864
                          AUCKLAND/23/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU501865
                          AUCKLAND/47/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU501866
                          AUCKLAND/78/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU501867
                          BEIJING/27/2006 CHINA EU501868
                          BEIJING/37/2006 CHINA EU501869
                          BEIJING/47/2006 CHINA EU501870
                          BEIJING/58/2006 CHINA EU501871
                          BEIJING/209/2006 CHINA EU501872
                          BRISBANE/1/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501873
                          BRISBANE/3/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501874
                          BRISBANE/9/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501875
                          BRISBANE/11/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501876
                          BRISBANE/34/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501877
                          BRISBANE/35/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501878
                          BRISBANE/49/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501879
                          BRISBANE/69/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501880
                          BRISBANE/150/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501881
                          BRISBANE/203/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501882
                          BRISBANE/256/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501883
                          CHEONNAM/238/2006 KOREA EU501884
                          CHIBA/3/2006 JAPAN EU501885
                          CHIBA/12/2006 JAPAN EU501886
                          CHIBA/15/2006 JAPAN EU501887
                          CHIBA/19/2006 JAPAN EU501888
                          CHIBA/30/2006 JAPAN EU501889
                          CHIBA/78/2006 JAPAN EU501890
                          CHIBA/85/2006 JAPAN EU501891
                          CHIBA/134/2006 JAPAN EU501892
                          CHIBA/146/2006 JAPAN EU501893
                          CHIBA/149/2006 JAPAN EU501894
                          CHRISTCHURCH/19/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU501895
                          CHRISTCHURCH/20/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU501896
                          DAEJEON/200/2006 KOREA EU501897
                          DAEJEON/269/2006 KOREA EU501898
                          DAEJEON/284/2006 KOREA EU501899
                          DAEJEON/417/2006 KOREA EU501900
                          DAEJEON/514/2006 KOREA EU501901
                          DARWIN/1/2006 AUSTRALIA EU501902
                          EHIME/15/2006 JAPAN EU501903
                          EHIME/56/2006 JAPAN EU501904
                          FLORIDA/2/2006 USA EU501905
                          FUKUI/26/2006 JAPAN EU501906
                          FUKUI/82/2006 JAPAN EU501907
                          FUKUI/86/2006 JAPAN EU501908
                          FUKUOKA/28/2006 JAPAN EU501909
                          FUKUSHIMA/9/2006 JAPAN EU501910
                          FUKUSHIMA/20/2006 JAPAN EU501911
                          FUKUSHIMA/62/2006 JAPAN EU501912
                          FUKUSHIMA/93/2006 JAPAN EU501913
                          FUKUSHIMA/117/2006 JAPAN EU501914
                          FUKUSHIMA/169/2006 JAPAN EU501915
                          GANGWON/259/2006 KOREA EU501916
                          GANGWON/376/2006 KOREA EU501917
                          GANSUCHENGGUAN/97/2006 CHINA EU501918
                          GUNMA/18/2006 JAPAN EU501919
                          GUNMA/25/2006 JAPAN EU501920
                          GUNMA/57/2006 JAPAN EU501921
                          GUNMA/58/2006 JAPAN EU501922
                          GUNMA/63/2006 JAPAN EU501923
                          GUNMA/72/2006 JAPAN EU501924
                          GUYANE/8/2006 GUYANE EU501925
                          GUYANE/28/2006 GUYANE EU501926
                          HAMAMATU/31/2006 JAPAN EU501927
                          HAMAMATU/32/2006 JAPAN EU501928
                          HAMAMATU/42/2006 JAPAN EU501929
                          HIROSHIMA/33/2006 JAPAN EU501930
                          HIROSHIMA/46/2006 JAPAN EU501931
                          HIROSHIMA/116/2006 JAPAN EU501932
                          HIROSHIMA/136/2006 JAPAN EU501933
                          HIROSHIMA/138/2006 JAPAN EU501934
                          HOKKAIDO/3/2006 JAPAN EU501935
                          HOKKAIDO/22/2006 JAPAN EU501936
                          HOKKAIDO/45/2006 JAPAN EU501937
                          HOKKAIDO/50/2006 JAPAN EU501938
                          HOKKAIDO/105/2006 JAPAN EU501939
                          HONG-KONG/218/2006 HONG-KONG EU501940
                          HONG-KONG/218-CDC-20061003-ROW-34/2006 HONG-KONG EU501941
                          HUBEIWUJIAGANG/1121/2006 CHINA EU501942
                          HYOGO/27/2006 JAPAN EU501943
                          ISHIKAWA/1/2006 JAPAN EU501944
                          ISHIKAWA/14/2006 JAPAN EU501945
                          ISHIKAWA/25/2006 JAPAN EU501946
                          ISHIKAWA/101/2006 JAPAN EU501947
                          IWATE/12/2006 JAPAN EU501948
                          IWATE/30/2006 JAPAN EU501949
                          IWATE/40/2006 JAPAN EU501950
                          JEJU/187/2006 KOREA EU501951
                          JEJU/260/2006 KOREA EU501952
                          JEJU/268/2006 KOREA EU501953
                          JEJU/270/2006 KOREA EU501954
                          JIANGXIDONGHU/312/2006 CHINA EU501955
                          JIANGXIDONGHU/1435/2006 CHINA EU501956
                          JOHANNESBURG/503/2006 SOUTH-AFRICA EU501957
                          KAGAWA/75/2006 JAPAN EU501958
                          KALININGRAD/20/2006 RUSSIA EU501959
                          KALININGRAD/31/2006 RUSSIA EU501960
                          KANAGAWA/12/2006 JAPAN EU501961
                          KANAGAWA/37/2006 JAPAN EU501962
                          KANAGAWA/50/2006 JAPAN EU501963
                          KAWASAKI/7/2006 JAPAN EU501964
                          KAWASAKI/649/2006 JAPAN EU501965
                          KENTUCKY/3/2006 USA EU501966
                          KHOVD/262/2006 MONGOLIA EU501967
                          KHOVD/269/2006 MONGOLIA EU501968
                          KITAKYUSHU/5/2006 JAPAN EU501969
                          KITAKYUSHU/6/2006 JAPAN EU501970
                          KOBE/1/2006 JAPAN EU501971
                          KOBE/10/2006 JAPAN EU501972
                          KOCHI/5/2006 JAPAN EU501973
                          KOCHI/8/2006 JAPAN EU501974
                          KOCHI/36/2006 JAPAN EU501975
                          KOCHI/38/2006 JAPAN EU501976
                          KOCHI/41/2006 JAPAN EU501977
                          KUMAMOTO/1/2006 JAPAN EU501978
                          KUMAMOTO/4/2006 JAPAN EU501979
                          KUMAMOTO/8/2006 JAPAN EU501980
                          KUMAMOTO/39/2006 JAPAN EU501981
                          KYOTO/10/2006 JAPAN EU501982
                          LYON/636/2006 FRANCE EU501983
                          MALAYSIA/363/2006 MALAYSIA EU501984
                          MALAYSIA/382/2006 MALAYSIA EU501985
                          MEMPHIS/10/2006 USA EU501986
                          MIYAGI/41/2006 JAPAN EU501987
                          MOSCOW/1/2006 RUSSIA EU501988
                          MOSCOW/4/2006 RUSSIA EU501989
                          NAGANO/1005/2006 JAPAN EU501990
                          NAGANO/1058/2006 JAPAN EU501991
                          NAGANO/1138/2006 JAPAN EU501992
                          NAGANO/1150/2006 JAPAN EU501993
                          NAGOYA/6/2006 JAPAN EU501994
                          NAGOYA/9/2006 JAPAN EU501995
                          NAGOYA/11/2006 JAPAN EU501996
                          NAGOYA/26/2006 JAPAN EU501997
                          NAGOYA/29/2006 JAPAN EU501998
                          NAGOYA/32/2006 JAPAN EU501999
                          NAGOYA/33/2006 JAPAN EU502000
                          NAGOYA/34/2006 JAPAN EU502001
                          NARA/6/2006 JAPAN EU502002
                          NEPAL/921/2006 NEPAL EU502003
                          NEWCALEDONIA/1/2006 NEW-CALEDONIA EU502004
                          NIIGATA/4/2006 JAPAN EU502005
                          NIIGATA/6/2006 JAPAN EU502006
                          NIIGATA/9/2006 JAPAN EU502007
                          NIIGATA/13/2006 JAPAN EU502008
                          NIIGATA/27/2006 JAPAN EU502009
                          NIIGATA/28/2006 JAPAN EU502010
                          NIIGATA/262/2006 JAPAN EU502011
                          NIIGATA/306/2006 JAPAN EU502012
                          NIIGATA/342/2006 JAPAN EU502013
                          NIIGATA/381/2006 JAPAN EU502014
                          NIIGATA/595/2006 JAPAN EU502015
                          NIIGATA/642/2006 JAPAN EU502016
                          NIIGATA/872/2006 JAPAN EU502017
                          OITA/9/2006 JAPAN EU502018
                          OITA/19/2006 JAPAN EU502019
                          OITA/27/2006 JAPAN EU502020
                          OITA/40/2006 JAPAN EU502021
                          OITA/63/2006 JAPAN EU502022
                          OITA/75/2006 JAPAN EU502023
                          OITA/91/2006 JAPAN EU502024
                          OKINAWA/18/2006 JAPAN EU502025
                          OSAKA/4/2006 JAPAN EU502026
                          OSAKA/18/2006 JAPAN EU502027
                          OTAGO/1/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU502028
                          PERU/4070/2006 PERU EU502029
                          PHILIPPINES/1124/2006 PHILIPPINES EU502030
                          SAITAMA/5/2006 JAPAN EU502031
                          SAITAMA/7/2006 JAPAN EU502032
                          SAITAMA/43/2006 JAPAN EU502033
                          SAKAI/11/2006 JAPAN EU502034
                          SANTIAGO/8248/2006 CHILE EU502035
                          SANTIAGO/9491/2006 CHILE EU502036
                          SAPPORO/4/2006 JAPAN EU502037
                          SAPPORO/123/2006 JAPAN EU502038
                          SAPPORO/183/2006 JAPAN EU502039
                          SENDAI/63/2006 JAPAN EU502040
                          SENDAI/F131/2006 JAPAN EU502041
                          SHIGA/18/2006 JAPAN EU502042
                          SHIMANE/29/2006 JAPAN EU502043
                          SHIMANE/30/2006 JAPAN EU502044
                          SHIMANE/36/2006 JAPAN EU502045
                          SHIMANE/40/2006 JAPAN EU502046
                          SHIZUOKA/25/2006 JAPAN EU502047
                          SHIZUOKA/76/2006 JAPAN EU502048
                          SINGAPORE/57/2006 SINGAPORE EU502049
                          SINGAPORE/75/2006 SINGAPORE EU502050
                          SINGAPORE/79/2006 SINGAPORE EU502051
                          SOUTHAUSTRALIA/3/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502052
                          SRILANKA/10/2006 SRI-LANKA EU502053
                          ST-PETERSBURG/4/2006 RUSSIA EU502054
                          ST-PETERSBURG/5/2006 RUSSIA EU502055
                          SYDNEY/13/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502056
                          SYDNEY/18/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502057
                          TAIWAN/40/2006 TAIWAN EU502058
                          TAIWAN/83/2006 TAIWAN EU502059
                          TAIWAN/99/2006 TAIWAN EU502060
                          TAIWAN/760/2006 TAIWAN EU502061
                          TAIWAN/784/2006 TAIWAN EU502062
                          THAILAND/86/2006 THAILAND EU502063
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                          THAILAND/558/2006 THAILAND EU502065
                          THAILAND/559/2006 THAILAND EU502066
                          THAILAND/618/2006 THAILAND EU502067
                          THAILAND/625/2006 THAILAND EU502068
                          THAILAND/636/2006 THAILAND EU502069
                          THAILAND/650/2006 THAILAND EU502070
                          THAILAND/656/2006 THAILAND EU502071
                          TOCHIGI/2/2006 JAPAN EU502072
                          TOKUSHIMA/8/2006 JAPAN EU502073
                          TOKYO/51672/2006 JAPAN EU502074
                          TOTTORI/22/2006 JAPAN EU502075
                          TOTTORI/29/2006 JAPAN EU502076
                          TOYAMA/33/2006 JAPAN EU502077
                          UKRAINE/13/2006 UKRAINE EU502078
                          VICTORIA/144/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502079
                          VICTORIA/170/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502080
                          VICTORIA/503/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502081
                          VICTORIA/519/2006 AUSTRALIA EU502082
                          WAIKATO/49/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU502083
                          WAIKATO/58/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU502084
                          WAKAYAMA/6/2006 JAPAN EU502085
                          WAKAYAMA/27/2006 JAPAN EU502086
                          WELLINGTON/5/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU502087
                          WELLINGTON/33/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU502088
                          WELLINGTON/43/2006 NEW-ZEALAND EU502089
                          WYOMING/1-NEW/2006 USA EU502090
                          YAMAGATA/6/2006 JAPAN EU502091
                          YAMAGATA/58/2006 JAPAN EU502092
                          YAMAGATA/74/2006 JAPAN EU502093
                          YAMAGUCHI/13/2006 JAPAN EU502094
                          YAMAGUCHI/17/2006 JAPAN EU502095
                          YOKOHAMA/49/2006 JAPAN EU502096
                          YOKOHAMA/86/2006 JAPAN EU502097
                          YOKOHAMA/92/2006 JAPAN EU502098
                          ZAGREB/4274/2006 CROATIA EU502099
                          AG-2289 ARGENTINA EU502100
                          AG-3065 ARGENTINA EU502101
                          AG-3509 ARGENTINA EU502102
                          AG-R1-06 ARGENTINA EU502103
                          AG-R113-05 ARGENTINA EU502104
                          AG-R126-04 ARGENTINA EU502105
                          AG-R26-04 ARGENTINA EU502106
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                          JILINNANGUAN/1165/2006 CHINA EU502596
                          YUNNANANNING/199/2006 CHINA EU502597
                          NAGANO/1315/2006 JAPAN EU502598
                          BEIJINGXICHENG/313/2006 CHINA EU502599
                          BEIJINGXICHENG/315/2006 CHINA EU502600
                          BEIJINGXICHENG/318/2006 CHINA EU502601
                          WISCONSIN/44/2006 USA EU502602
                          FUKUSHIMA/172/2006 JAPAN EU502603
                          HIROSHIMA/149/2006 JAPAN EU502604
                          HIROSHIMA/150/2006 JAPAN EU502605
                          HUBEIWUCHANG/1258/2006 CHINA EU502606
                          HI-06-10284 USA EU502607
                          GANGWON/741/2006 KOREA EU502608
                          LYON/1292/2006 FRANCE EU502609
                          LYON/1313/2006 FRANCE EU502610
                          TOULON/1244/2006 FRANCE EU502611
                          CN-RV0063-07 CANADA EU502612
                          CN-RV1295-06 CANADA EU502613
                          CN-RV0008-07 CANADA EU502614
                          CN-RV0009-07 CANADA EU502615
                          CN-RV0019-07 CANADA EU502616
                          CN-RV0020-07 CANADA EU502617
                          CN-RV1213-06 CANADA EU502618

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                            do they give the isolation dates ?
                            -----------------------
                            antigenic = protein-sequences
                            genetic = nucleotide-sequences
                            ---------------------------

                            I think whole genome analysis should be done.
                            Much more opportunity to detect emergence of new
                            polymorphisms, new variants.

                            Also : reassortment provides the opportunity to exactly
                            locate one strain, its predecessors and progenies.
                            A reassorted strain is a new beginning and can be tracked
                            better than the continuously evolving segments.

                            I hypothize that most reassortments happen in SE-Asia
                            and that could be the reason for the observed pattern ?!?
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

                              Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                              do they give the isolation dates ?
                              -----------------------
                              antigenic = protein-sequences
                              genetic = nucleotide-sequences
                              ---------------------------

                              I think whole genome analysis should be done.
                              Much more opportunity to detect emergence of new
                              polymorphisms, new variants.

                              Also : reassortment provides the opportunity to exactly
                              locate one strain, its predecessors and progenies.
                              A reassorted strain is a new beginning and can be tracked
                              better than the continuously evolving segments.

                              I hypothize that most reassortments happen in SE-Asia
                              and that could be the reason for the observed pattern ?!?
                              These are not reassortment issues. They are looking at how GENES evolve, not constellations of genes. Reassortment does NOT change a gene sequence (or create antigenic variation). You are operating under a MAJOR misconception.

                              This paper focuses on antigenic variation. Too much data (from a genetic analysis) destroys the model.

                              These stories have a longer shelf life in the absence of data.

                              Comment

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