Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Vallat - OIE Remarks Clarified

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Vallat - OIE Remarks Clarified

    Conflicting messages from WHO, UN and OIE. This is a case of extremely bad risk communication. I urge these organizations to coordinate more effectively. (Fla1)




    H5N1 bird flu virus reassuringly stable: animal health chief

    10/01/2008 12h20

    Health workers collect blood samples from a pigeon in Jakarta
    ©AFP/File - Adek Berry

    PARIS (AFP) - The H5N1 virus that causes deadly avian flu has proven remarkably stable and action to curb outbreaks of the disease are highly effective, the head of the world's paramount agency for animal health said here Thursday.
    Since the end of 2003, mutation of the H5N1 virus so that it can be easily transmissible among humans has been a nightmare for the world health community, raising concerns of a global influenza pandemic that could claim tens of millions of lives.
    But Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), said no evidence of any such genetic shift had emerged.
    "We have never seen a virus which has been so stable for so long. Compared to other viruses, it is extremely stable, which minimises the risk of mutation" into a pandemic strain, he told reporters.
    Vallat said a system to beef up veterinary surveillance, especially in poor countries, had borne fruit, enabling outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry flocks to be identified and swiftly eradicated.
    "It took two years for our voice to be heard," Vallat said. "If we had been heard before, the virus would have been stopped in its tracks."
    Vallat said, though, "there are three countries, Indonesia, Egypt and to a lesser degree Nigeria, where the disease is endemic, and this creates reservoirs from which it can bounce back."
    "If we could eradicate the virus in those countries, the problem of a pandemic from Asian H5N1 would be resolved," said Vallat.
    Health officials slaughter suspected bird flu infected poultry in Medan, Indonesia
    ©AFP/File - Rahmad

    The H5N1 virus is lethal and extremely contagious among birds. It is also dangerous for humans who are in close proximity to sick poultry, who can pick up the virus through nasal droplets or faeces.
    H5N1 has killed 216 people since 2003, principally in Asia, according to the latest toll posted by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Hundreds of millions of chickens, ducks and geese have died from the virus or been culled as a preventative measure.
    In other comments, Vallat said that climate change, combined with the acceleration of cross-border trade under globalisation, was posing a growing threat to animal health, which in turn raised a challenge for human health.
    He pointed to mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, which has become established in North America, and Rift Valley fever, which is edging northwards in Africa "and could quite easily become established in the Mediterranean."
    In other comments, Vallat said the OIE was in talks with Beijing over opening a reference laboratory -- an internationally validated lab for checking samples -- in China as part of the global surveillance network for monitoring animal health.
    At present, the only OIE-accredited reference labs in Asia are in Japan, but the agency is pushing hard to have these vital facilities much closer to the outbreaks of disease.
    China's participation in the 172-member OIE had been dogged for 15 years over the participation of Taiwan, but the row was resolved last May.
    Three Chinese labs have been put forward as reference facilities, Vallat said.
    Vallat said that consumption of meat would probably rise by 50 percent by 2020 to respond to the needs of the burgeoning middle classes in Asia, and this required stronger veterinary safeguards to prevent further health scares.



    L’AFP est une agence d’information globale, assurant une couverture rapide, complète et vérifiée des événements de l’actualité comme des thèmes qui façonnent notre quotidien. Avec un réseau de journalistes sans égal, déployé sur 151 pays, l'AFP est en outre un leader mondial de l’investigation nu...

  • #2
    Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

    you have to be kidding me!...I should stop right there

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

      "Conflicting messages from WHO, UN and OIE.
      H5N1 bird flu virus reassuringly stable: animal health chief
      10/01/2008 12h20"


      "We can all go home now"

      Possibility 1.:

      If we put apart the wild birds, who have many avian viruses indeed,
      the OIE seems to say that all this (but few clusters) now are B2H.

      It's illogic to think that the endemic thing can be easy resolved, obviously only with a drastic change in a way of breeding animals.

      I hope that we don't wait weeks for the results from the "reference laboratory -- an internationally validated lab for checking samples", because now every country can do it preliminary with the fast tests.

      The virus "are stable".
      If it does, that means it remains only a zoonotic.


      Possibility 2.:

      "The bigger a lay, the bigger will be the perception that it is thrue."

      I hope this is not a case.


      P.S.
      To Florida1 (thanks) because I can't post the reply on the spanish forum where I put a news on spanish (Io no habla espanol)

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

        the problem is with our language.
        It has become more and more common to use noninformative
        expressions and not clarify them by numbers.
        "stable", how much stable ? stable compared with what ?

        influenza had been very unstable as compared with other
        viruses.
        H5N1 had been rather unstable in China as compared with other flu.
        Lots of reassortment and recombination.

        But when it left China, there were indeed only few
        reassortments. The Qinghai-strain and Indonesian strain are "stable".
        Vietnam,Thailand also - except new introductions from China.

        It still changes at ~40 mutations per year per virus.
        More than human flu, less than avian. (I think)
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

          This report is ridiculous.

          Each term used - "stable" etc. - needs to be defined properly. Then each clause or opinion made in the report needs to be compared to past statements, the conclusions of current research, and the conclusions from epidemiological studies.

          Debunking. So tedious.

          J.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

            Originally posted by cartski View Post
            This report is ridiculous.

            Each term used - "stable" etc. - needs to be defined properly. Then each clause or opinion made in the report needs to be compared to past statements, the conclusions of current research, and the conclusions from epidemiological studies.

            Debunking. So tedious.

            J.
            lol.

            For a start - how about this item TODAY from the UN:


            Prepare for flu pandemic economic hit: U.N.

            <!-- END HEADLINE --> <!-- BEGIN STORY BODY --> Thu Jan 10, 6:30 AM ET

            Governments around the world need to do more to prepare for the dramatic economic impact of the next flu pandemic, the United Nations influenza coordinator said on Thursday.
            David Nabarro said his team had recently collected information from nearly 150 countries to see how prepared they were for a pandemic and the picture was mixed.
            "Most countries have now focused on pandemic as a potential cause of catastrophe and have done some planning. But the quality of the plans is patchy and too few of them pay attention to economic and social consequences," he told BBC radio.
            "The economic consequences could be up to $2 trillion -- up to 5 percent of global GDP removed," he said, reiterating previous World Bank and UN estimates.
            Nabarro will deliver a lecture at the London School of Economics later on Thursday on the global state of preparedness for any pandemic, which could be triggered by bird flu.
            The current H5N1 form of bird flu is mainly an animal disease, but experts fear it might mutate into a strain that could spread easily between people, causing a pandemic which could kill millions.
            (Reporting by Ben Hirschler, editing by Mike Peacock)






            http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080110/...uQAsRa3H4R.3QA

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

              "A foolish consistency is the hobglobbin of little minds." (Emerson)

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                RE: The OIE Vallat absurd and harmful article:


                It was published by AFP--- a French company that is run by representatives from the French Government.

                It was published again by MSNBC.

                NBC Universal is 80% owned by GE and 20% owned by a French company called Vivendi:


                Vivendi holds 20% of NBC Universal, a world leader in media with activities in film and television production, television channel distribution and theme park operations.



                We are one of the world’s leading media and entertainment companies in the development, production, and marketing of entertainment, news and information to a





                Bird flu is a political, financial, and orchestrated game played by rich and powerful "global thinking" people. They have no allegiance to any one country---only allegiance to themselves.

                I can think of no way to influence them to stop the game.

                Can anyone think of a way to turn them around?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                  Commentary

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                    Commentary

                    H5N1 Reservoirs West of China

                    Recombinomics Commentary 20:40
                    January 10, 2008

                    But Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), said no evidence of any such genetic shift had emerged.

                    "We have never seen a virus which has been so stable for so long. Compared to other viruses, it is extremely stable, which minimises the risk of mutation" into a pandemic strain, he told reporters.

                    Vallat said, though, "there are three countries, Indonesia, Egypt and to a lesser degree Nigeria, where the disease is endemic, and this creates reservoirs from which it can bounce back."

                    "If we could eradicate the virus in those countries, the problem of a pandemic from Asian H5N1 would be resolved," said Vallat.

                    The above comments are alarming. Although many H5N1 sequences are still being hoarded, the overall evolution of the virus is quite clear and indicates it is not dependent on reservoirs in the above countries. In fact prior to 2006, neither Egypt nor Nigeria had ever reported a case of H5N1. The first reported outbreak of H5N1 west of China was in late 2005, which was linked to the Qinghai strain (clade 2.2) of H5N1, which has now become endemic throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The dramatic spread in geographical reach was due to migratory birds, which pass through Egypt and Nigeria, but are not dependent on reservoirs in those two countries.

                    The H5N1 sequences demonstrate geographic origins and clade 2.2, which spread from the largest lake in China, has now been replaced by a the Uva Lake strain (a clade 2.2 sub-clade), which spread from the largest lake in Mongolia. Every reported H5N1 sequence in Europe since the summer of 2007 has been the Uva Lake strain, and there have not been any reports of that strain in Egypt or Nigeria. The most recent sequences available from those countries have been the Qinghai strain.

                    The reservoir for H5N1 is wild birds, which are largely immune from efforts by FAO or OIE. The latest outbreak, in wild birds, was announced today in England. An explosion of cases is expected this winter, based on the dramatic upsurge in outbreaks this summer and fall in the Czech Republic, Germany, France, Russia (Krasnodar and Rostov), Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt. The European and Middle Eastern countries not mentioned above will report H5N1 in the near term, if they have a modern surveillance program,

                    H5N1 is more widespread than ever, OIE speeches and press releases not withstanding.


                    .
                    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                      Make up my mind.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                        It's easy to see why most states' Open Meetings law includes the following statement:

                        Public servants have not been given the right to decide what is good or not good for the people to know.



                        .
                        "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                          It seems just a short time ago they were saying this was the fastest mutating virus that they had ever seen. IIRC

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                            Good thing this has blown over and I can stop posting travel bulletins and warnings Travel Bulletin

                            Health: Avian Influenza

                            This Bulletin is current for Friday, 11 January 2008.
                            The Bulletin was issued on Thursday, 10 January 2008, 14:43:01, EST.
                            Summary
                            • Avian influenza is primarily a disease of birds and only rarely causes infections in humans and other mammals.
                            • Human cases of avian influenza continue to occur in a number of countries as a result of exposure to infected birds, usually domestic poultry. There is currently no evidence of efficient spread of avian influenza from person to person.
                            • Australian travellers, long-term residents and businesses overseas should inform themselves about the risks of avian influenza, be prepared to take personal responsibility for their own safety and put appropriate contingency plans in place.
                            • Australians who live in an avian influenza affected area for an extended period should consider, as a precautionary measure, having access to influenza antiviral medicine for treatment.
                            • Australians intending to travel to affected countries for shorter periods are at much lower risk of infection, but should discuss the risk of avian influenza with their doctor as part of their routine pre-travel health checks.
                            • If you are visiting or living in a country affected by avian influenza, you should follow sensible precautions to reduce infection risk.
                            • If the threat of sustained human-to-human transmission appears serious, we will advise Australians in affected countries to consider leaving. If they don't leave when first advised to do so, they may be prevented from leaving later.
                            • Australians should ensure that their travel documents are up-to-date in case they need to depart an affected country at short notice.
                            • If a widespread outbreak occurs, the delivery of consular assistance to Australians could be severely constrained. Australian missions and offices overseas will not be in a position to provide influenza antiviral medicines to Australians in affected areas. Australian travellers, long-term residents and businesses are responsible for securing their own supply of influenza antiviral medicine, if required. http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/zw-c...vian_Influenza More of the same at the link
                            CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                            treyfish2004@yahoo.com

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

                              Originally posted by Siam View Post
                              It seems just a short time ago they were saying this was the fastest mutating virus that they had ever seen. IIRC
                              Dr. Nidom article Jan 7, 2008:

                              "....In the meantime, the Bird Flu Researcher from the Health Faculty of the Airlangga University Animal, CA Nidom, said that indeed had the indication of the virus H5N1 began to change the form resembled was similar to the available virus in humans.

                              He admitted, there were signs that the virus now no longer spreads through the poultry. (Meaning poultry is no longer the only source of contamination, ed). Results of this conclusion were based on his research in many cases of available bird flu in Indonesia.

                              In the meeting in Bandung around the last two months, the team's findings of this researcher have been sent to the government

                              That is that the bird flu virus now has the new identity: the "humanized virus".

                              Now the time for the government to increasingly encourage the control of this virus, he said to SINDO.

                              Nevertheless, he not menafikkan that the source of the spread of bird flu, the poultry was still continuing to play a role.

                              The fact is, in Indonesia indeed a great number were found the poultry in the settlement. So as rather was difficult to distinguish which virus that really from the poultry, and whatever that not.

                              I recommended to the government to more serious croaked this virus mystery . The mechanism of the sending of the sample to WHO indeed stayed important

                              However, more important again croaked his mystery in order to prevents the occurrence of the pandemic or the plague that could kill millions of humankind in time in an instant, he explained.

                              Responded to the WHO statement about the human-to-human spread of bird flu that was limited that, according to Nidom, could not be regarded as something that was not serious.

                              That was a warning that the bird flu virus currently becomes increasingly strong and virulent. So as the anticipation action and vigilance must be increased..."






                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X