Call for open data on human avian influenza cases from around the world
An important research paper on the epidemiology of avian influenza A(H5N1) has just been published by Eurosurveillance (Avian influenza A(H5N1) in humans: new insights from a line list of World Health Organization confirmed cases, September 2006 to August 2010 FluTracker?s link to full article).
Since 2005, researchers from Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Germany have been compiling a ?line list? of confirmed, probable, and suspected human cases of avian influenza (AI) from around the world. They performed several statistical analyses on the data set which consisted of a total 294 cases of which 234 were confirmed by WHO between 2006 and 2010. The RKI authors make several observations about the results of their analyses that are worth pointing out.
But first a couple of corrections and comments about the article.
The first part of this sentence is correct, the second part is not. The first on-line case-based data for avian influenza that I am aware of was posted on February 2, 2006, as an Microsoft Access database as an adjunct to the ?Influenza Report? and online textbook. (Link). The database included 116 WHO confirmed cases. The database was updated for several months in 2006 with the final downloadable database including 176 cases as of May 5, 2006. After May 2006 the online database was no longer updated and by March 28, 2007 it was no longer available on line.
Between November, 2003 and July 31, 2010, a total of 483 human cases of A(H5N1) were confirmed by WHO. The analysis of the RKI researchers only includes 234 of these cases, less than half. Care should be taken in interpreting the epidemiological results in this article.
Important Conclusions and Discussions in the Article
This observation indicates that in most cases, especially severe, virulent cases of AI, early hospitalization and treatment with antivirals is critical for survival when infected with H5N1.
The gist of this observation is simple. The RKI researchers were hampered by lack of publicly available data. As I have previously discussed, there is little publicly available detail on human H5N1 cases. Several years ago, media reports on human cases could be used to supplement details from WHO reports on these human cases. Information on age, sex, specific location, family contacts and relationships, etc. could often be obtained from media reports. Now these media reports no longer have critical details, and often times media outlets no longer even report details of suspected or confirmed cases of AI.
All of us at FluTrackers supports the development and maintenance of open databases to track emerging infectious diseases. In 2009, FluTrackers members compiled a database of some of the earliest media reported cases of pandemic H1N1 and made it publicly available. (Link)
FluTrackers.com agrees that a publicly available database of all human A(H5N1) cases be maintained and updated by WHO. The data should be consistent across all fields and provided in a timely manner by all WHO members as required by International Health Regulations.
Avian Influenza is an emerging infectious disease that has affected less than 600 people worldwide since 1997. So far it has been unable to easily transmit between humans. But with an overall death rate of more than 50% among confirmed cases, an avian influenza pandemic could wipe out large portions of the world?s population if it becomes easily transmissible between humans. That is why all countries throughout the world need to comply with IHR and report human outbreaks of A(H5N1) immediately. And that is also why WHO needs to maintain and update, on a daily basis, a publicly accessible database of human cases of A(H5N1).
An important research paper on the epidemiology of avian influenza A(H5N1) has just been published by Eurosurveillance (Avian influenza A(H5N1) in humans: new insights from a line list of World Health Organization confirmed cases, September 2006 to August 2010 FluTracker?s link to full article).
Since 2005, researchers from Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Germany have been compiling a ?line list? of confirmed, probable, and suspected human cases of avian influenza (AI) from around the world. They performed several statistical analyses on the data set which consisted of a total 294 cases of which 234 were confirmed by WHO between 2006 and 2010. The RKI authors make several observations about the results of their analyses that are worth pointing out.
But first a couple of corrections and comments about the article.
With this study, we summarised the current global AI situation in humans. It is, to our knowledge, the first study that not only analysed human AI cases worldwide on the basis of a line list collected over several years but in addition made these case-based data available online.
Between November, 2003 and July 31, 2010, a total of 483 human cases of A(H5N1) were confirmed by WHO. The analysis of the RKI researchers only includes 234 of these cases, less than half. Care should be taken in interpreting the epidemiological results in this article.
Important Conclusions and Discussions in the Article
In our study all patients hospitalised eight or more days after symptom onset died. This suggests a rather narrow time window for antiviral drug administration.
Our study was solely based on data from publicly available case reports and is subject to several limitations. Our monitoring instrument was only entirely implemented in August 2006 and thus trend analyses were not exploited to its full extent. Within the used reports, negative values, e.g. ?case not hospitalised?, were not systematically mentioned, which may lead to biases. Time specifications, e.g. on dates of exposure or hospitalisation, needed for time-to-event analyses, were often incomplete. Case reports did not systematically contain details on medical care and specific antiviral treatment. Therefore, analyses were restricted to ?hospitalisation? as general indicator for access to medical care. Given the sparse information on possible contact with infected individuals and clusters of human AI cases available from the serial reports within the investigated period, clusters could not be evaluated as initially planned. Other studies reporting on clustered cases had mostly accessed additional case-investigation reports and patient interviews [23,30]. We based our analyses on WHO confirmed cases, although unconfirmed cases had been recorded in our line list, due to lacking information for probable and suspected cases. Including probable cases in our analyses did, however, not change the cases? sex ratio or CFR substantially when compared to confirmed cases only.
A line list needs to be flexible in view of potential new information to be entered. . . . Presenting cases in the format of a line list is not a goal in itself, but a prerequisite for targeting surveillance and identifying risk factors, as well as a starting point for prospective studies, e.g. investigating potential human-to-human transmission, the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses, and host-related factors including age-dependent immunity in humans.
We would like to encourage that an anonymised case-based database for AI in humans is directly placed publicly and continuously updated, e.g. by an internationally renowned organisation such as WHO. Open access to analysable data might accelerate the identification and implementation of research questions and surveillance priorities and thus enhance our understanding of ? still mostly fatal ? AI in humans and permit the rapid detection of epidemiological changes with implications for human health.
Avian Influenza is an emerging infectious disease that has affected less than 600 people worldwide since 1997. So far it has been unable to easily transmit between humans. But with an overall death rate of more than 50% among confirmed cases, an avian influenza pandemic could wipe out large portions of the world?s population if it becomes easily transmissible between humans. That is why all countries throughout the world need to comply with IHR and report human outbreaks of A(H5N1) immediately. And that is also why WHO needs to maintain and update, on a daily basis, a publicly accessible database of human cases of A(H5N1).
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