UK: Under-4s hit by flu epidemic

[Shiloh]

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/ar...unt-virus.html

Under-4s hit by flu epidemic as intensive care units 'will have to start turning patients away'

By Jenny Hope and Sophie Borland
Last updated at 1:18 AM on 30th December 2010


A flu epidemic has broken out among children under four, disturbing figures revealed last night.

Cases of the illness in children aged one to four years old have soared to more than 200 per 100,000, the level of an epidemic.

Rates have doubled among the middle aged in the past week alone, while rocketing by 50 per cent across the population of England and Wales. But the true scale of the crisis is much worse, according to a
leading expert, who said the figures from the Royal College of General Practitioners were an underestimate.

Hospitals will soon have to start denying critically ill people treatment in intensive care units as they have been swamped with flu patients...

[NS1]

Re: UK: Under-4s hit by flu epidemic

Thank you, Shiloh, for providing a contemporary and important article confirming this key epidemic threshold in young children.

Being concerned on this topic, we earlier provided calculations and pro forma data outputs on the thread discussing the general UK situation.

For the sake of collaboration and presentation, an Excel spreadsheet calculating ICU Bed ratio acceleration is externalised there along with the findings so that the public may follow the assumptions and validate the material as official data becomes available.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=384388&postcount=145

[NS1]

Re: UK: Under-4s hit by flu epidemic

Thank you, Shiloh, for providing a contemporary and important article confirming this key epidemic threshold in young children.

Being concerned on this topic, we earlier provided calculations and pro forma data outputs on the thread discussing the general UK situation.

For the sake of collaboration and presentation, an Excel spreadsheet calculating ICU Bed ratio acceleration is externalised there along with the findings so that the public may follow the assumptions and validate the material as official data becomes available.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=384388&postcount=145

Total case count officially increased by 44.9% in the UK, but ICU beds with Influenza (HPA Week 52) appear to have risen at the substantially higher rate of 60%.

The December 23rd official report (latest) showed that 1 of 7 ICU beds (~13%) were Influenza cases. Compare that figure to the 2009 pH1N1 Pandemic peak of roughly less than 1 of 12. The 738 ICU cases reported today demonstrate that UK hospitals are utilising 1 of 5 ICU beds for Severe Influenza cases.

GeneWurx_UK_ICU_Categories_v1.xls

These extrapolations suggest a severe wave that is continuing.

GeneWurx and the concerned public would like like to thank the officials who released the data today. Additional information is, however, required, including more frequent updates on cases, ICU cases and fatalities, alongside genetic sequences tagged according to mild, severe and fatal cases with clinical progression meta-data.

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Under-4s hit by flu epidemic

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/he...nder-five.html

Flu levels almost double among children under five
NHS hospitals struggling to cope with the flu outbreak were on "black alert" yesterday, as figures showed that the number of children under five seriously ill with the disease has doubled in a week.
Richard Alleyne
By Richard Alleyne 5:00PM GMT 31 Dec 2010

Doctors in hot spots around the country have warned services are being exhausted by demand for treatment and the pressures on hospitals are "not sustainable".

The problems are so severe in some areas that non-urgent operations have been cancelled.

The alarm bells have sounded as official figures show that there are now 738 people in intensive with the disease ? almost double the figure of 460 last week.

The critically ill include 42 children under five, up from 26 seven days ago...

[NS1]

Re: UK: Under-4s hit by flu epidemic

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/he...nder-five.html

Flu levels almost double among children under five
NHS hospitals struggling to cope with the flu outbreak were on "black alert" yesterday, as figures showed that the number of children under five seriously ill with the disease has doubled in a week.
Richard Alleyne
By Richard Alleyne 5:00PM GMT 31 Dec 2010

Doctors in hot spots around the country have warned services are being exhausted by demand for treatment and the pressures on hospitals are "not sustainable".

The problems are so severe in some areas that non-urgent operations have been cancelled.

The alarm bells have sounded as official figures show that there are now 738 people in intensive with the disease ? almost double the figure of 460 last week.

The critically ill include 42 children under five, up from 26 seven days ago...

The percentage of Under 5 Year Olds in the Intensive Care Units remained steady week over week at 5.6% of all ICU patients (42 of 738). Ceteris parabis, the trend may hold for the near future.

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Under-4s hit by flu epidemic

Source: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...to-worsen.html

'No Beds' Fear as kids send flu toll soaring
By EMMA MORTON, Health and Science Editor

A SHORTAGE of intensive care beds for children is set to get worse this week - just as swine flu spreads.

Cases are expected to soar as kids go back to school and the potentially lethal bug is passed around.

Just FIFTEEN of 320 beds are not being used in England's 28 paediatric critical care units. Sick youngsters on ventilators have had to travel up to 100 miles for specialist treatment...

Medics say the situation will worsen tomorrow as schools open after the festive holidays...

[NS1]

95% Utilisation Throughout England

Source: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...to-worsen.html

'No Beds' Fear as kids send flu toll soaring
By EMMA MORTON, Health and Science Editor

A SHORTAGE of intensive care beds for children is set to get worse this week - just as swine flu spreads.

Cases are expected to soar as kids go back to school and the potentially lethal bug is passed around.

Just FIFTEEN of 320 beds are not being used in England's 28 paediatric critical care units. Sick youngsters on ventilators have had to travel up to 100 miles for specialist treatment...

Medics say the situation will worsen tomorrow as schools open after the festive holidays...

These figures indicate 95% Utilisation of Pediatric Critical Care beds throughout England prior to any upsurge due to incubation when schools re-open.

If 15 beds are available over 28 separate children's wards, then logically at least 13 of the units do not have 1 bed available for admission. That's the best scenario, only if the cases are evenly distributed according to the ratio of normally available beds to the population.

If the cases are not evenly distributed, then less populous or lower utilisation areas may have more than one bed, leaving a larger number of higher density areas with no beds. For example, if those 15 available beds are spread across 8 units (7 units with 2 beds and 1 unit with 1 bed), then we are looking at 20 Pediatric Wards with no beds available (~71% of the locations normally used). If 35% to 70% of the normal Pediatric Wards are shipping patients today, a logistical sub-optimisation is at work.

It is not unwise to alert pilots of a busy season.