RU: enumeration of fatalities ; enclosed file with details by subject

[Celvin11]

Total of known media reports: 510 Russians have died from swine flu

Standing as of 26 December 2009, based on available information from media

However, some of the reports are several weeks old and numbers need update (Moscow oblast, Moscow city, St Petersburg, Leningrad to mention a few)

Hence, current standing of death toll is likely well above 600

My enumeration of reported swine flu deaths in Russia's subjects currently adds to 510. See enclosed .pdf file for details

At least 71 out of 83 subjects have reported fatalities. There are some hints about possible deaths in a couple more, which needs further investigation

[Celvin11]

Re: RU: enumeration of fatalities ; enclosed file with details by subject

A Closer Look at Central Federal Okrug

So far, 17 out of 18 subjects in Central Federal Okrug have been reporting a total number of 117 fatalities - death rate (measured by number of deaths divided by million population) stands at 3.15

However, if we look closer at dates for last reporting, and group subjects accordingly, a very interesting pattern emerges

1. In 6 oblasts and City of Moscow last known (registered) reporting date was in November (between 17 and 24 Nov). No reports seen from Kostroma so far

2. Five oblasts reported during first part of December (2 - 9 Dec)

3. Another five oblasts have released recent information about numbers of fatalities. Last reports were published between 10 and 25 December

If we group subjects according to date of last available information, and calculate death rate :

Subjects in Group one have reported 34 deaths (1.43 / mill pop)
Subjects in Group two have reported 27 deaths (4.44 / mill pop)
Subjects in Group three have reported 56 deaths (7.62 / mill pop)

A very clear pattern can be observed

Average for the ten oblasts reporting in December : 6.18 deaths per million inhabitants, more than four times higher score compared with the subjects reporting in November

No doubt more people have died in those subjects during last month. Is it possible to calculate how many ?

An estimation of number of H1N1 deaths not yet reported from group one - eight subjects in Central Federal Okrug (Kostroma inclusive), based on average death rate in the ten other oblasts as of December, returns approximately 112 fatal cases which have not yet been reported - 35 in Moscow oblast, 4 in Kostroma, 3 in Kaluga, 6 in Tver, 7 in Belgorod, 5 in Ivanovo, 1 in Oryol, and 51 in City of Moscow

Likely, also oblasts in group two (reporting during 2-9 December), might have experienced some more deaths in recent weeks. Oblasts in group two are Kursk, Tambov, Smolensk, Tula, and Bryansk. In total, around ten more deaths might have occured here, based on calculations

Group three, the recent reporters, consists of Ryazan, Yaroslavl, Lipetsk, Vladimir, and Voronezh

[sharon sanders]

Re: RU: enumeration of fatalities ; enclosed file with details by subject

Thank you Celvin11.