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Can anyone comment on how Japan has gone from 0 cases of community acquired two days ago to, it seems, 80 today? Are they using the same definition of confirmed that the US is? Although none of the news stories showing up on FT are in English yet, we are all, fortunately, using Arabic numbers. Their numbers have risen so far so fast I am beginning to become suspicious of what we are looking at.
Wotan (pronounced Voton with the ton rhyming with on) - The German Odin, ruler of the Aesir.
I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, etc. I am a layman with a background in the physical sciences.
Can anyone comment on how Japan has gone from 0 cases of community acquired two days ago to, it seems, 80 today? Are they using the same definition of confirmed that the US is? Although none of the news stories showing up on FT are in English yet, we are all, fortunately, using Arabic numbers. Their numbers have risen so far so fast I am beginning to become suspicious of what we are looking at.
yes - they use the same numerical and biological criteria for confirmed
Last edited by hawkeye; May 18, 2009, 09:53 PM.
Reason: fixed formatting
It seems a symptom of a community spread of novel H1N1 influenza virus. I am sure that Japanese health officials are investigating any possible network of relation between these individuals in order to obtain a clear picture of the events.
It is crucial: if a network exists, it may be controlled; if not, the risk is a situation USA-like.
It seems a symptom of a community spread of novel H1N1 influenza virus. I am sure that Japanese health officials are investigating any possible network of relation between these individuals in order to obtain a clear picture of the events.
Well, the "definition" of community spread seems to be changing rapidly: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swine...emic_alert/en/. My understanding, so far, is that these cases are in schools, which is therefore not a community.
Wotan (pronounced Voton with the ton rhyming with on) - The German Odin, ruler of the Aesir.
I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, etc. I am a layman with a background in the physical sciences.
Well, the "definition" of community spread seems to be changing rapidly: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swine...emic_alert/en/. My understanding, so far, is that these cases are in schools, which is therefore not a community.
Yes. I agree.
Because I have highlighted the investigation for a possible ''network'' of relations: schools could be one of this network...
Its quite possible that Japan is the first country where they are actually A) Investigating all the possible cases B) reporting them.
At least in USA they dont even try to report cases any more and mostly just tell possible patients to stay at home.
Im still under the impressions that there is LOT more cases than reported. I mean at this point we might be talking about hundreds of thousands cases.
I agree, we are learning about a rapidly increasing number of cases in Japan in part because Japanese health authorities are actively seeking cases; are actively testing many samples; and are quickly reporting them to determine the geographic spread and potential for disease transmission links within the country.
For an overview of how surveillance methods affect the number of reported cases see:
I agree, we are learning about a rapidly increasing number of cases in Japan in part because Japanese health authorities are actively seeking cases; are actively testing many samples; and are quickly reporting them to determine the geographic spread and potential for disease transmission links within the country.
Yes, the numbers are largely dependent on testing. Japan is agressively testing. One high school has something like 134 students out sick. I suspect most were tested and were positive, accounting for a large % of confirmed cases.
The CDC has "estimated" 100,000 cases in the US, which is almost 2 orders of maginitude higher than confirmed cases, and is probably 1-2 orders of maginitude too low. A more realistic number for the US woild be 1-10 million (head-patting press releases notwithstanding).
Yes, the numbers are largely dependent on testing. Japan is agressively testing. One high school has something like 134 students out sick. I suspect most were tested and were positive, accounting for a large % of confirmed cases.
The Lycée of Okura is located in the prefecture of Osaka.
"The local authorities in Osaka said many of the new cases detected in the prefecture were connected to Kansai Okura Senior High School in the city of Ibaraki and none of the students had traveled overseas recently.
A total of 143 Okura high school students had been absent from the school this month due to flu-like symptoms such as fever. The privately run school said it will be closed from Monday through Saturday."
With the documentation, of which I had yesterday on a total 93 confirmed cases:
4 cases airport of Nakita (Prefecture of Chiba) 53 cases of Kobe (Prefecture of Hyogo) 36 cases of Osaka (Prefecture of Osaka)
"Late Sunday officials in Hyogo prefecture, which includes Kobe, told AFP 53 cases had been confirmed, while Osaka prefecture reported 36, raising the national toll to 93, including the four overseas infections."
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Their numbers have risen so far so fast I am beginning to become suspicious of what we are looking at.
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>21:12</TD><TD class=headline>
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