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CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

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  • #16
    Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

    pe?te?chi?a (pə-tē'kē-ə)
    n., pl. -chi?ae (-kē-ī'). A small purplish spot on a body surface, such as the skin or a mucous membrane, caused by a minute hemorrhage and often seen in typhus.

    http://www.answers.com/topic/petechia

    .
    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

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    • #17
      Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

      Originally posted by gsgs
      no mention of increased temperature and rapid breathing, though.

      disease with a high fatality rate in affected pigs.(...)
      Sudden death.(...)
      Cases of porcine dermatitis nephropathy syndrome(...)
      May show respiratory distress or laboured breathing caused by interstitial pneumonia.



      What are the interstitial pneumonia symptoms ?

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

        I would like to point out that WHO confirmed H5N1 human case have occurred in 5 of the 6 provinces listed.

        Anhui, (human H5N1)
        Jiangxi, (human H5N1)
        Zhejiang, (human H5N1)
        Hunan, (human H5N1)
        Hubei, (human H5N1)
        Jiangsu, (None)
        and other provinces

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

          Mingus, you think the symptoms match well ?
          I have no expertise here, just noticed the reports.
          Temperature maybe was unmentioned since obvious with pneumonia ?
          "rapid breathing" could match "respiratory distress or laboured breathing",
          I'm not sure.

          Well, if the diagnosis were easy, the Chinese would
          probably already have told us ?!?!?


          what TomDVM wrote at fluwikie:
          ----------------------------------------------------------
          Okay, as far as the clinical signs listed, they are incredibly general and non-specific?

          -Pigs have a few quirks and we have a few mistunderstandings about them. They are one of the most closely related animal species to humans and are more intelligent than most other animals?

          -they cannot regulate their body temperature by sweating, and that is why they lay in wet muddy areas in the summertime. They are also prone to both ?blushing? and sunburn?

          -therefore, any disease would produce the clinical signs mentioned.
          ...Chinese Government is being deliberately misleading
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

            Originally posted by gsgs

            Well, if the diagnosis were easy, the Chinese would
            probably already have told us ?!?!?



            (...)
            Okay, as far as the clinical signs listed, they are incredibly general and non-specific?
            ...Chinese Government is being deliberately misleading
            This virus haved first been identify in western canada.

            Well, the various circovirus's syndrome where known as "mysterious disease" overhere before the problem was generally accepted as a circovirus caused disease.

            It reappeared in New-Zealand last fall where the disease was eradicated before and the media presented the disease as "a mysterious disease".

            The disease mysteriously have different syndrome appearance in europe and in america while the strains are almost identicals... this have been blamed on diferential associated-causes.

            While only some percentage of the pigs did fall sick, almost all herds (in america) are positives to the virus and this for many years, nobody knows exactly what provoque the symptoms to appear.

            The circovirus as the syndrome's causative agent was only recently been proven.

            There is a strong chance that if the virus begin to cause some problem in China, amost knowbody there know about it and that it is treated as a "mysterious disease" exactly like it have been covered here in our occidental democratic and free-press country.

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            • #21
              Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

              OK, so how do you estimate the probability that it's PMWS or PDNS ?
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                It's hard to tell, because the pro-med mail report is really too unrelevant.
                H5N1 is far from being the only disease that can possibly be the cause of that massive death in swine.
                H5N1 is "panzootic" (animal pandemia) in bird right now...
                But circovirus related diseases are panzootic in swine right now...
                If I where a pig I would fear circovirus more than H5N1.

                But that said, the PMWS only affect a perticular age-class of animal and the dermatic symptoms as stated in the report are especially evident and is rarely misdiagnosed with flu ...

                But circovirus & influenza are not mutually exclusives.

                H5N1 haved been seen in the past in Indonesia and in China... what was the symptoms onset ???

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                  I don't remember any redskinned victims...
                  So you think H5N1 is still possible ? That would be horrible.

                  And if I were a pig, I would fear humans.

                  I have no experience with promed, (when) are we
                  going to get an answer ?
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                    Originally posted by Mingus
                    But circovirus & influenza are not mutually exclusives.
                    The circovirus replicated very poorly (at least 10(6) for an infectious dose in a competent cell plate)
                    It is beleived that the circovirus need the immune system to be activated by a secondary cause to being able of fully efficient replication, usually it is latent.

                    the viral load in serum of a positive healthy pigs is around 10(-4)TCID50/ml while sick pigs will have high viral load value like 10(-1) to 10(3)TCID50/ml.

                    Pigs that are PRRS(+) INFLUENZA(+) and PMWS(+) are not so uncommon.
                    Pigs that are PRRS(+) & PMWS (+) are very common.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                      Originally posted by Mingus
                      It's hard to tell, because the pro-med mail report is really too unrelevant.
                      H5N1 is far from being the only disease that can possibly be the cause of that massive death in swine.
                      H5N1 is "panzootic" (animal pandemia) in bird right now...
                      But circovirus related diseases are panzootic in swine right now...
                      If I where a pig I would fear circovirus more than H5N1.

                      But that said, the PMWS only affect a perticular age-class of animal and the dermatic symptoms as stated in the report are especially evident and is rarely misdiagnosed with flu ...

                      But circovirus & influenza are not mutually exclusives.

                      H5N1 haved been seen in the past in Indonesia and in China... what was the symptoms onset ???
                      Korea has had problems with swine deaths and illness also. I have seen data from these swine indicating they were infected with H9N2 (found in Korean birds) and H1N1 (lab strain WSN/33). H1N2 sequences related to the 2002 isolate from Korea were also detected. The H1N2 sequences were similar to isolates from North America and swine in Canada have recombined with these sequences

                      http://www.recombinomics.com/phylo/C...Swine_PB2.html

                      Korea says the H1N2 entered their country via imports from North America.

                      There are also links between avian sequences in Korea and swine sequences in Hong Kong.

                      http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03...ssortment.html

                      The researchers in Korea were well aware of circovirus, but thought the swine problems were due to influenza, not circovirus.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                        the presence of the circovirus disease is an indication
                        for a double infection with something else ?
                        Doesn't sound good. I don't know PRRS.

                        Maybe you can recommend some online-paper about
                        the circovirus ? I could search with google, but am
                        guessing for suitable keywords ?
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                          as I understood Mingus the circovirus - disease is very new
                          and maybe wasn't a problem in 2002 already ?!

                          We should make a list of the possibilities and assign
                          probabilities to it
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                            Here is an upcoming paper describing more swine problems in Korea



                            Two swine influenza viruses, Sw/Korea/PZ72-1/06 and Sw/Korea/CN22/06, were
                            isolated in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells from nasal swabs of pigs showing a typical influenza-like illness. In Chunbuk province on March, 2006, Sw/Korea/PZ72-1/06 was isolated from the nasal swabs of 8-week-old, cross-bred pigs that showed respiratory disease signs including depression, coughing, sneezing, and a loss of appetite. The Sw/Korea/CN22/06 was isolated from the lung homogenates of a dead 9 –week-old, cross-bred pig that showed a typical influenza-like illness with a 30%mortality in Chungnam province on April, 2006. The subtype of Sw/Korea/PZ72-1/06and Sw/Korea/CN22/06 were determined to be H3N1 by two multiplex reversetranscription (RT)- polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing as previously described (9).



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                            • #29
                              Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                              yes, but first back to the million pig problem.
                              I searched the promed archive for "request for information"
                              and they were answered a few days later (2 examples
                              only, quick search). So there is hope that we will hear more soon.

                              Please correct me, if someone has more experience with promed.

                              Florida, the pig-prices were not up so much. 2%-4%.
                              Wouldn't we expect more ?
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: CHINA - Unknown disease kills >1,000,000 pigs in 1 district alone

                                Originally posted by gsgs
                                Florida, the pig-prices were not up so much. 2%-4%.
                                Wouldn't we expect more ?
                                If the pigs are perceived as dangerous to eat (H5N1) then prices should fall though the floor as chicken prices have done in areas where the infection spread.

                                If this is not an H5N1 infection, then with a lower supply of pigs (due to death by disease), the demand for existing healthy supply from other other areas of China will drive prices up.

                                The next pig price report will be out this Friday.

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