Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Indonesia Human Cases May 16, 2006

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

    In this latest article Nicholas Zamiska
    URL for this article:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB...5133754016.html
    or for those who are not subscribers
    http://www.flutrackers.com/ forum...12819#post12819

    ...Graham Tallis, a WHO epidemiologist who has traveled to the family's village to investigate the cases, said that while health officials were on alert for cases of fever and that there were a lot of health care workers in the area, "there's no evidence of spread beyond the family group."
    Seven people who had contact with the victims have all tested negative, Nyoman Kandun, director general of disease control and environmental health at the Indonesian Ministry of Health in Jakarta, said late Monday. He added that no additional cases of illness have been detected.
    The WHO and local health officials are currently both trying to figure out how the group got sick. The family members all could have caught the virus from the same, avian source, perhaps while preparing a meal with an infected chicken.
    The virus may have also passed directly between the family members, although direct transmission between humans has been suspected in very few cases. Even if that proves to be the case, while it would be an alarmingly large cluster of human-to-human infections, it wouldn't necessarily mean that the virus had evolved to spread easily among people, the possible prelude to a pandemic.

    Obviously, from many other local sources of information, the WHO has stepped in and is directing real and substential help in the area.

    Again, let me remind you that this help was ask by Doc Vallat of the OIE at the beginning of March when he stated that the Indenesia case was a 'Timebomb'.

    Let me remind you too of the Health Minister of Health in Indonesia, asking for technical and financial help few weeks ago as he stated the 128 positive cases of H5N1.

    So, many people from WHO and others are now on the ground and heading there.

    We have notice via the local reports that some panic is spreading among the inhabitants.

    Please let's not forget that panic is normal at this stage and it is not a confirmation of a unfolding h2h pandemic.

    I would say, that it is a good thing that help has arrived and is on its way, it is time for all countries to realise that one country problem can become a global problem, therefore all help legitimaly needed should be provided without political considerations because of the Global Public Health implications.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

      What I find very disturbing about this whole thing is that WHO has not issued a press releases since May 8th on Indonesia.

      Surely they should have issued a press release on the current situation in Indonesia by now.

      Furthermore I would not wave the "all clear" banner on this situation yet, mostly because there are so many inconsistencies with the total number of cases.

      In another week we will know for sure if this has gone loco.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

        WHO may not have issued a press release because maybe they are still assessing the situation. There are conflicting reports of different infections and testing status.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

          Originally posted by DB
          What I find very disturbing about this whole thing is that WHO has not issued a press releases since May 8th on Indonesia.

          Surely they should have issued a press release on the current situation in Indonesia by now.

          Furthermore I would not wave the "all clear" banner on this situation yet, mostly because there are so many inconsistencies with the total number of cases.

          In another week we will know for sure if this has gone loco.
          The number of cases in the North Sumatra cluster has been 8.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

            Originally posted by niman
            The number of cases in the North Sumatra cluster has been 8.
            Yes.

            The numbers that I was referring too were these:

            128 - Reported Confirmed cases of Human H5N1
            12 - Suspect patients
            57 - Samples being sent to Hong Kong
            1 - Health Care Worker

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

              DB - if H5N1 in Indonesia and this cluster in particular has gone "pandemic" we would be seeing many more cases popping up.

              We don't see them as of now. Or at least what's being reported.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                My vote is it is still too early to tell. One of the steps may be incremental changes rather than one giant leap. My suspicion is it has changed some but has not yet made the leap. And, I also suspect it has found a convenient vector. Pigs, cats or some other small mammal may be the culprit. Chicken manure arguments are getting a little thin.
                Last edited by Shannon Bennett; May 16, 2006, 10:44 AM.
                Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                Thank you,
                Shannon Bennett

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                  Ju,

                  Do you remember the spread rates that Seattle released?

                  Here is a snippet.

                  Day 1: 0 people sick
                  Day 28: 31 people sick
                  Day 49: 613 people sick

                  So what day are we at in Indonesia?

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                    Mother got sick April 27
                    thats 19 days from the beginning of this cluster.

                    There is a very real possibility that we have been seeing the very beginning as bubbles (thank you Barry) since last year... all small stops on the way to Pandemia.

                    The "final" mutation" may not be one big one... but a series of small steps as so many have speculated.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                      The point is this.

                      It is still to early to say this isn't the mutation that really kicks off the pandemic.

                      Give this another week and see how it develops.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                        My day 49 was a little off. Here are the correct figures and their source.

                        http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5128474

                        A Flu Pandemic in Seattle

                        A computer simulation on how a pandemic might unfold in King County, Washington projected the number of new cases there would be each day during a severe pandemic.

                        Day 1
                        0 people sick

                        Day 28
                        31 people sick

                        Day 49
                        1,403 people sick

                        Day 77
                        57,623 people sick

                        Day 86 (Peak)
                        90,122 people sick

                        Day 98
                        36,267 people sick

                        Day 112
                        4,136 people sick

                        Day 126
                        390 people sick

                        Day 147
                        19 people sick

                        Day 168
                        1 people sick

                        Day 182
                        0 people sick

                        Cumulative number of people projected to contract the flu in King County,
                        Wash., during a severe pandemic: 828,950.
                        Sources: Timothy Germann, Kai Kadau and Catherine Macken, Los Alamos National Laboratory: Ira Longini, University of Washington

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                          ndonesia probes bird flu cluster; WHO alerted
                          Mon 15 May 2006 10:49 AM ET

                          (Adds WHO comment from Geneva)

                          JAKARTA, May 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia is investigating an outbreak of H5NI bird flu in up to eight members of a North Sumatran family, six of whom have died, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said on Monday.

                          Five of the eight, including four of the dead, showed positive for avian flu in local tests, while three other family members were suspected cases, the minister said.

                          Apriyantono added that the deadly virus had not yet been found in local poultry, which is normally the source for infections in humans.

                          In Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it was following the case closely because of the possibility of human-to-human infection.

                          Bird flu has killed 115 people, mostly in east Asia, since reappearing in 2003, with virtually all the victims catching the disease from poultry.

                          The United Nations' health agency is on alert for signs that the virus is mutating into one that can be easily transmitted between people, a development that could signal the start of a pandemic in which millions could die.

                          "It is something we are taking very seriously," said WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng about the Indonesian case. "Any time we have a possible cluster it raises suspicions that human-to-human transmission may have occurred," she told Reuters.

                          Experts have in the past said that cluster cases of possible bird flu cases among family members do not mean the virus is necessarily mutating. It could be caused by the close contact normal in families. There have been a number of such examples in Vietnam and Thailand, Cheng said.

                          "It may be that these people had common exposure, it may be that they caught the disease taking care of family members. Right now we do not know, but it is something that has caught our attention," she said.

                          Cheng said WHO hoped to know more in the next few days.

                          An Indonesian health ministry spokeswoman said blood samples of the five people who had tested positive locally had been sent to a WHO-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation. Local tests are not considered definitive.

                          The WHO also sent a team to North Sumatra to investigate the case, said Sari Setiogi, a spokeswoman for the agency.

                          "So far, an examination of chickens, ducks and pigs around the victims' houses has turned out negative," Apriyantono told reporters on the sidelines of a Food and Agriculture Organisation meeting in Jakarta. "But we still have to thoroughly investigate it as it's a complicated case." (Additional reporting by Richard Waddington in Geneva)

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                            Above story has just been pulled!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                              AnneZ, why did they pull the story?

                              Was it because of:
                              In Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it was following the case closely because of the possibility of human-to-human infection.
                              If I was the "W.H.O". I would want the story pulled also. Those that are followers can't always perform as leaders... or did they pull it because it because of "possibility of human-to-human infection"?
                              "Predictable is Preventable" by Safety Expert Dr. Gordon Graham.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06

                                Originally posted by AnneZ
                                Above story has just been pulled!
                                The link still works for me. What did you mean "pulled"?
                                "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X