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J Theor Biol. Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in mainland China.
[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
J Theor Biol. 2014 Mar 6. pii: S0022-5193(14)00122-2. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.038. [Epub ahead of print]
Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in mainland China.
Xiao Y<SUP>1</SUP>, Sun X<SUP>2</SUP>, Tang S<SUP>3</SUP>, Wu J<SUP>4</SUP>.
Author information: <SUP>1</SUP>Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, PR China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn. <SUP>2</SUP>Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, PR China. <SUP>3</SUP>College of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710062, P.R. China. <SUP>4</SUP>Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada.
Abstract
We propose and analyze a mathematical model to mimic its transmission dynamics to assess the transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. By fitting the model to data of the confirmed human cases we estimate the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission as 0.467 (95% CI 0.387-0.651). Simulation results indicate that approximate twofold of the current human-to-human transmission rate or periodic outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry may induce an outbreak in human. Though the recent limited transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, a new outbreak may be possible due to virus mutation and adaption or periodic outbreaks in poultry, and hence careful surveillance and persistent intervention strategies in poultry have to be required.
Copyright ? 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
KEYWORDS: Basic reproduction number, Interventions, Mathematical model, Outbreak
PMID: 24607746 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
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J Theor Biol. 2014 Mar 6. pii: S0022-5193(14)00122-2. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.038. [Epub ahead of print]
Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in mainland China.
Xiao Y<SUP>1</SUP>, Sun X<SUP>2</SUP>, Tang S<SUP>3</SUP>, Wu J<SUP>4</SUP>.
Author information: <SUP>1</SUP>Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, PR China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn. <SUP>2</SUP>Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, PR China. <SUP>3</SUP>College of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710062, P.R. China. <SUP>4</SUP>Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada.
Abstract
We propose and analyze a mathematical model to mimic its transmission dynamics to assess the transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. By fitting the model to data of the confirmed human cases we estimate the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission as 0.467 (95% CI 0.387-0.651). Simulation results indicate that approximate twofold of the current human-to-human transmission rate or periodic outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry may induce an outbreak in human. Though the recent limited transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, a new outbreak may be possible due to virus mutation and adaption or periodic outbreaks in poultry, and hence careful surveillance and persistent intervention strategies in poultry have to be required.
Copyright ? 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
KEYWORDS: Basic reproduction number, Interventions, Mathematical model, Outbreak
PMID: 24607746 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
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