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**HenryN** · February 5, 2009, 09:30 AM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02050902/H274Y_Kenya_A193T.html

**GaudiaRay** · February 5, 2009, 09:55 AM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

The commentary just posted at Recombinomics from the CDC in Taiwan shows the evolution of Oseltamivir resistance.

This is the first time we have seen a clear picture of the speed of pandemic's spread.

I'm grateful for this posting, in the extreme.
Many of us, including myself, have spent years trying to determine how fast the oncoming train will arrive at the station. We now know. Sigh, relief.

Besides for the obvious fact that what's in Taiwan is in China and thus what will be around the world within months, we can now project the timeframe for the pandemic's spread! Hooray!

Thx, Niman. Thx to Ho Sheng Wu at Taiwan CDC also.

...and to see that China with its political slant, has attempted to squelch Taiwan, and in this case, consequentially,

the FIRST STATEMENT OF TRUTH on the topic of pandemic.

"Oseltamivir. However, starting from September to December in 2008, an average of 46% resistance (22/48), with the H274Y mutation in the NA, was detected by Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC). The more detailed month-to-month proportion figures of resistant viruses are as follows: 0% (0/21) from January to August, 11.1 % (2/18) in September, 27.3 % (3/11) in October, 66.7 % (2/3) in November, and 100% (15/15) in December. It seems that there was a fast increasing trend of Oseltamivir resistance in Taiwan from September 2008.

Ho-Sheng Wu, Ph.D.
Director, Research and Diagnostic Center
Director, National Influenza Center
Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan

Recombinomics thanks Dr Wu for the first hand knowledge on the evolving influenza situation in Taiwan."

**tropical** · February 5, 2009, 10:59 AM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

#2:
"Many of us, including myself, have spent years trying to determine how fast the oncoming train will arrive at the station. We now know. Sigh, relief.

Besides for the obvious fact that what's in Taiwan is in China and thus what will be around the world within months, we can now project the timeframe for the pandemic's spread!"

Without interfering with scientific research results,
are we her speaking of relatively harming seasonal flu pandemic,
or not?

From the Gaudia post, the reader can assume that this is the one -
the dreadful novel flu pandemic, not in its H5N1 form, but in novel seasonal flu strains.
All the above is assumed from the words: "spent years to determine how fast", "within months", and "timeframe for the pandemic spread".

Now I, maybe wrongly, every year looked at the every year seasonal flu as an non-novel flu, which can stil be named as "pandemic" like, because it spread continuously every year throughout the whole world - half year one part, half the other, with maybe diferent strains more infecting some regions, but pandemic as illness.

From previous changed seasonal flu strains, of course slowed by the yearly seasonal vaccines, and with mostly diferent outcomes than an novel flu, it can be assumed how fast simil-like would spread a pandemic.

The novel one was simulated to spread from an min. 1 month regionaly, to 3 months everywhere.
It was wroted that for the blanket would be late after this first 1 month.

Now, what we have here now?

An manifestation of an seasonal changed mist of strains which now flagelate some worlds regions, but nothing else than an changed seasonal pandemic,
or the big one as Gaudia seems to (wrongly?) point?

If this is realy the start of an novel pandemic changed more this winter in Asia, and now globetrotting to every corner of the world, reaching the Americas/Europe/... in late spring, when this lands seasonal flu must quite, than would be outrageous the silence of WHO, and all of the official pandemic flu alerts departments.

From all the above I hope, and I speculate that this is not the novel pandemic for which existed so many flu websites and preparations.

Feel free to soon as possible explain, assess and correct the real state of this matter to the readers.

**HenryN** · February 5, 2009, 11:13 AM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

I think the emergence of H274Y in H1N1 demonstrates how fast a change can travel and how it can become dominant. The sequences from Kenya also show how much swapping can take place at critical positions in the receptor binding domain.

H274Y hopped around from one H1N1 genetic background to another. Now it is linked by with multiple H1N1 subclades of 2B, which is creating vaccine resistance and further spread.

This spread, especially in Asia in general and China in particular, raises additional concerns that H274Y which jump onto H5N1, which will create Tamiflu resistant H5N1.

Many believe H5N1 has been held in check because of widespread Tamiflu use in blankets thrown over contacts of cases as well as cullers of H5N1, and H274Y resistance would lead to rapid H2H spread.

Although widespread H274Y on H5N1 has not been reported, the fixing of H274Y on multiple variations of clade 2B, is a bright red flag for future events.

**HenryN** · February 5, 2009, 12:23 PM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

New comments posted

http://precedings.nature.com/documents/385/version/1#comments

**AlaskaDenise** · February 5, 2009, 04:07 PM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

Originally posted by niman View Post

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02...nya_A193T.html

Commentary

Tamiflu Resistant H1N1 in Kenya Has A193T
Recombinomics Commentary 14:20
February 5, 2009

HA sequences from Kenya have been released through the US Air Force surveillance program. These sequences identified high levels of oseltamivir resistance H1N1 in Kenya, and provided additional support for recombination and the role of A193T in the fixing of H274Y.

Most of the sequences fell into two groups. One matched the sequences released from isolates collected last season in Kenya. These sequences had G189N (H3 numbering), which was encoded by two adjacent non-synonymous changes, G604A and G605A. However, a second group matched the oseltamivir resistant isolates identified in South Africa over the summer. These isolates also had G189N, but were flanked by two additional changes S187N and A193T. S187N was found in clade 2C in Hong Kong, while A193T had also been in clade 2C prior to acquisition by the clade 2B sub-clade that emerged worldwide this season. There were six isolates (see list below) that had the three receptor binding changes, S187N, G189N, and A193T, which was the dominant sub-clade in South Africa and also was in an isolate from Washington state. Moreover, phylogenetic analysis of the NA sequences suggests an isolate from China, Japan also matches this group. The isolates in Kenya were collected in October and November, but support an earlier Kenya origin for G189N.

In addition to the series that matches the isolates from South Africa, another isolate, A/Mbagathi/7586/2008, has G189A and A193T, which matches another isolate from the US that emerged this season, A/Hawaii/19/2008. This combination also matches another series from Japan this season, based on phylogenetc analysis of NA.

Another Kenya isolate from the summer, A/Kisumu/6543/2008, has G189N plus H196R. H196R is in the dominant H1N1 sub-clade reported to date in the United States, as well as multiple locations in Japan this season.

Yet another isolate, A/Kisii/7577/2008, has G189N plus A193T.

Thus, the isolates from Kenya contain a number of combinations of receptor binding domain polymorphisms which match H1N1 isolates with H274Y on NA, as well as A193T on HA.

S187N, G189N, A193T
Kisii/7541/2008
Kisii/7547/2008
Kisii/7559/2008
Kisii/7562/2008
Kisii/7570/2008
Kisii/7576/2008
Johannesburg/10/2008
Johannesburg/25/2008
Johannesburg/34/2008
Johannesburg/35/2008
Johannesburg/46/2008
Washington/05/2008
Chiba/86/2008

G189A, A193T
Mbagathi/7586/2008
Hawaii/19/2008
Miyagi/35/08
Yamaguchi/26/08
Yamaguchi/27/08
Yamaguchi/28/08

H196R (G189V, A193T also in all except Kisumu)
Kisumu/6543/2008
Hawaii/21/2008
Pennsylvania/08/2008
Pennsylvania/092008
Texas/15/2008
Texas/16/2008
Texas/17/2008
Texas/18/2008
Sendai/103/08
Sendai-H/2103/08
Sendai/104/08
Sendai/105/08
Yokohama/95/08
Yokohama/96/08

.

**AlaskaDenise** · February 5, 2009, 04:11 PM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

Originally posted by niman View Post

...........demonstrates how fast a change can travel and how it can become dominant. ............

Might that rate of change be different when a novel antigen infects a naive human population?

.

**JJackson** · February 5, 2009, 07:33 PM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

The rate of change is going to be a measure of relative fitness, in this case between the competing strains.

**HenryN** · February 5, 2009, 08:01 PM

Re: Kenya H1N1 2008

Originally posted by AlaskaDenise View Post

Might that rate of change be different when a novel antigen infects a naive human population?

.

The key word in my comment was how fast it CAN travel. There are quite a few variables that will determine how fast it does travel. There even is variation within the seasonal flu population, which is why there is variation between sub-types and between sub-clades.

Just in H1N1 this year clade 2B pretty much eliminated clade 2C in Asia, and the clade 2B that won out was a sub-clade of the 2B that was circulating last season.