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Freefall - Book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

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  • Freefall - Book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

    Some excerpts from Stiglitz' new book Freefall

    To me, the issue of transparency is really about deception. American banks were engaged actively in deception: they moved risk off the balance sheet so no one could appropriately assess it. The magnitudes of the deceptions that had been achieved were mind-boggling. Lehman Brothers could report that it had a net worth of some $26 billion shortly before its demise and yet have a hole in its balance sheet approaching $200 billion.

    American corporations (and those of many other countries) are only nominally run by the shareholders. In practice, to a very large extent, they are run by and for the benefit of the management.

    When private rewards are well aligned with social objectives, things work well; when they are not, matters can get ugly. (he gets into this in more detail but ie if someone produces a great new electric car and makes great profits great. If someone charges large fees for predatory mortgages and makes huge bonuses as their companies are going bankrupt not so great)

    Economic policy involves trade-offs -- winners and losers -- and such trade-offs can't be left to the technocrats alone. (ie Congress should keep an eye on the Fed, especially when it has moved so strongly into fiscal policy such as buying up trillions of dollars worth of mortgages at taxpayer expense)

    The perception and reality, that the rescue packages were "unfair" -- unfairly generous to the bankers, unfairly costly to ordinary citizens -- has made dealing with the crisis all the more difficult.

    The Bush and Obama administrations had made a simple mistake -- inexcusable given what had occurred in the years prior to the crisis -- that the banks' pursuit of their own self-interest was necessarily coincident with what was in the national interest.

  • #2
    Re: Freefall

    Editorial review of Freefall from Amazon -

    Review

    Freefall is a spirited attack on Wall Street, the free market and the Washington consensus. (David Smith - The Times [London] )

    As a Nobel Prize winner, member of the cabinet under former President Bill Clinton and chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers, Joseph E. Stiglitz has some practical ideas on how to ease the pain of the Great Recession and maybe help prevent the next one. (Carl Hartman - Associated Press )

    Asks some basic and provocative questions? Freefall is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the roots of the financial crisis. Stiglitz brilliantly analyzes the economic reasons behind the banking collapse, but he goes much further, digging down to the wrongheaded national faith in the power of free markets to regulate themselves and provide wealth for all. (Chuck Leddy - Boston Globe )

    Mr. Stiglitz uses his experience teaching to give the lay reader a lucid account of how overleveraged banks, a shoddy mortgage industry, predatory lending and unregulated trading contributed to the meltdown, and how, in his opinion, ill-conceived rescue efforts may have halted the freefall but have failed to grapple with more fundamental problems?. His prescience lends credibility to his trenchant analysis of the causes of the fiscal meltdown. (Michiko Kakutani - The New York Times )

    Stiglitz is the world's leading scholarly expert on market failure, and this crisis vindicates his life's work. There have been other broad-spectrum books on the genesis and dynamics of the collapse, but Freefall is the most comprehensive to date, grounded in both theory and factual detail?. the definitive critique to date of how the Summers-Geithner strategy fails, both as economics and as politics?. The tone of this book is good-humored and public-minded. (Robert Kuttner - The American Prospect )

    Stiglitz offers a powerful account of the financial meltdown and criticizes the Obama Administration for 'muddling through' rather than pushing aggressively for change?. An excellent overview from a Nobel prize-winning economist of what caused the crisis and what reforms should be enacted?. I can only hope Obama makes room for it on his nightstand. (James Pressley - BusinessWeek )

    [W]hat brings this book to life is his formidable grasp of economic policy and strong sense of conviction about the blunders that have been made, especially with respect to the bank bailouts. (Jim Zarroli, NPR business reporter - NPR "What We're Reading" )

    Product Description

    An incisive look at the global economic crisis, our flawed response, and the implications for the world?s future prosperity. The Great Recession, as it has come to be called, has impacted more people worldwide than any crisis since the Great Depression. Flawed government policy and unscrupulous personal and corporate behavior in the United States created the current financial meltdown, which was exported across the globe with devastating consequences. The crisis has sparked an essential debate about America?s economic missteps, the soundness of this country?s economy, and even the appropriate shape of a capitalist system.

    Few are more qualified to comment during this turbulent time than Joseph E. Stiglitz. Winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, Stiglitz is ?an insanely great economist, in ways you can?t really appreciate unless you?re deep into the field? (Paul Krugman, New York Times). In Freefall, Stiglitz traces the origins of the Great Recession, eschewing easy answers and demolishing the contention that America needs more billion-dollar bailouts and free passes to those ?too big to fail,? while also outlining the alternatives and revealing that even now there are choices ahead that can make a difference. The system is broken, and we can only fix it by examining the underlying theories that have led us into this new ?bubble capitalism.?

    Ranging across a host of topics that bear on the crisis, Stiglitz argues convincingly for a restoration of the balance between government and markets. America as a nation faces huge challenges?in health care, energy, the environment, education, and manufacturing?and Stiglitz penetratingly addresses each in light of the newly emerging global economic order. An ongoing war of ideas over the most effective type of capitalist system, as well as a rebalancing of global economic power, is shaping that order. The battle may finally give the lie to theories of a ?rational? market or to the view that America?s global economic dominance is inevitable and unassailable.

    For anyone watching with indignation while a reckless Wall Street destroyed homes, educations, and jobs; while the government took half-steps hoping for a ?just-enough? recovery; and while bankers fell all over themselves claiming not to have seen what was coming, then sought government bailouts while resisting regulation that would make future crises less likely, Freefall offers a clear accounting of why so many Americans feel disillusioned today and how we can realize a prosperous economy and a moral society for the future. .

    About the Author

    Winner of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics, Joseph E. Stiglitz is the author of Making Globalization Work; Globalization and Its Discontents; and, with Linda Bilmes, The Three Trillion Dollar War. He was chairman of President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers and served as senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank. He teaches at Columbia University and lives in New York City.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Freefall

      Thanks Kent and Al.

      This is the fundamental problem "...wrongheaded national faith in the power of free markets to regulate themselves and provide wealth for all..."

      If increases in productivity are not paid back to the workers with wage increases then the economic base is not expanded. Workers do not have the financial strength (savings, solvency, etc.) in a downturn to spend us back into prosperity.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Freefall

        A few more quotes from Freefall...



        The world's top three banks are now Chinese. America's largest bank is down at the number-five spot.

        In recent years, China's infrastructure investment in Africa has been greater than that of the World Bank and the African Development Bank combined, and it dwarfs America's.

        African countries are running to Beijing for assistance in this crisis, not to Washington. And it is not just in Africa that China's presence is being felt: in Latin America, in Asia, in Australia -- anywhere where there are commodities or resources -- China's rapid growth provides an insatiable appetite.

        A few will learn the right lessons. They will realize that what is required for success is a regime where the roles of market and government are in balance, and where a strong state administers effective regulations. They will realize too, that the power of special interests must be curbed.

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        • #5
          Re: Freefall

          Some more quotes from Freefall....

          Most Americans don't understand the principles of comparative advantage -- that each country produces the goods that it is relatively good at; and they find it difficult to grasp that the United States may have lost its comparative advantage in many areas of manufacturing.

          Maintaining low interest rates is one of the critical ways that countries "manage" their exchange rate (when interest rates are low capital flows out of the country to places where it can get a higher return), and many in Europe believe that the United States is using the low exchange rate to get a competitive advantage.

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          • #6
            Re: Freefall - Book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

            shibboleth: a common saying or belief with little current meaning or truth

            From Stiglitz's Freefall, chapter: A New Capitalistic Order, section The Role of the State....

            Unfortunately, especially in the United States, many shibboleths have inhibited figuring out the right role of the state. One common aphorism, a crib from Thomas Paine, asserts, "The government that governs best is the government that governs least." Sweden understood that a country has to live within its means. If it wants good health, education, roads, and social protection, these public services have to paid for, and that requires high taxes. It's obvious that a country needs to spend its money reasonably well, and that's true whether we're talking about the private sector or the public. Sweden's public sector has managed to spend its money well; America's private financial sector has done a dismal job. Better social protection combined with good education and job retraining means that a country's economy can be more flexible, adjusting to shocks more quickly and maintaining higher levels of employment. Governments can provide the capital and incentives for investment. The well-designed "welfare state" can support an "innovative society".

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Freefall - Book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

              G-7 to Discuss Greece in Conference Call, Kan Says (Update2)



              May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Group of Seven will hold a conference call to discuss the Greek debt crisis today, according to Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan, after a global stock rout sparked by concern that debt woes are spreading.



              European members ?will probably explain? steps taken with the International Monetary Fund to assist Greece, Kan said at a press conference in Tokyo today. ?I don?t think we will be asked to take specific action, such as currency intervention.


              The euro rose and the yen retreated against higher-yielding currencies after Kan?s remarks. He spoke after U.S. stocks tumbled the most in a year when computerized trading exacerbated a selloff triggered by Europe?s debt crisis. Asian shares also slumped, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling a fifth day.

              more...

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              • #8
                Re: Freefall - Book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

                EU Faces Demands to Broaden Crisis Fight as G-7 Meets



                May 7 (Bloomberg) -- European policy makers? botched response to Greece?s escalating fiscal crisis rattled world markets, prompting the U.S. and Asia to rally around in a bid to restore stability and avoid a global sovereign-debt crisis.



                As euro-region leaders prepared to meet in Brussels tonight to endorse the Greek bailout, bond yields surged across the bloc?s southern periphery, threatening to undermine the single currency. The spreading contagion prompted plans for an emergency conference call by Group of Seven finance chiefs. Earlier today, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said investors have judged Europe?s efforts to date as ?inadequate.?



                Stocks dropped and commodities plunged on concern that Greece?s fiscal woes will drag down Spain and Portugal as well. The selloff worsened after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet yesterday signaled no immediate steps to stem the panic, denting global confidence in Europe?s handling of the severest crisis since the euro?s debut in 1999.



                more....


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                • #9
                  Re: Freefall - Book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

                  This is the type of practice that a responsible financial sector should be engaged in rather than generating fees from predatory designed to fail loans. Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie are of course GSEs




                  The Wall Street Journal Opinion Journal

                  10/10/08

                  Denmark Offers a Model Mortgage Market


                  There is a safe way to securitize home loans

                  By George Soros


                  The American system of mortgage financing is broken and needs a total overhaul. Until there is a realistic prospect of stabilizing housing prices, the value of mortgage-related securities will erode and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's efforts will come to naught.


                  There are four fundamental problems with our current system of mortgage financing.

                  First, the business model of Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) in which profits accrue to the private sector but risks are underwritten by the public has proven unworkable. It would be a grave mistake to preserve the GSEs in anything resembling their current form.

                  Second, the American style of mortgage securitization is rife with conflicts where entities that originate, securitize and service mortgages are generally not the same as those that invest in mortgage securities. As a result, the incentives to originate sound mortgages and to service them well are inadequate. No wonder that the quality of mortgages degenerated so rapidly.

                  Third, mortgage-backed securitizations, which were meant to reduce risk by creating geographically diversified pools of mortgages, actually increased risk by creating complex capital structures that impede the modification of mortgages in the case of default.

                  Finally, and most fundamentally, the American mortgages market is asymmetric.
                  When interest rates fall and house prices rise, mortgages can be refinanced at par value, generating the mortgage equity withdrawals that fueled the housing bubble. However, when interest rates rise and house prices fall, mortgages can only be refinanced at par value even though the market price of the securitized mortgage has fallen.

                  To reconstruct our mortgage system on a sounder basis, we ought to look to the Danish model, which has withstood many tests since it was brought into existence after the great fire of Copenhagen in 1795. It remains the best performing in Europe during the current crisis. First, it is an open system in which all mortgage originators can participate on equal terms as long as they meet the rigorous regulatory requirements. There are no GSEs enjoying a quasimonopolistic position.

                  Second, mortgage originators are required to retain credit risk and to perform the servicing functions, thereby properly aligning the incentives.
                  Third, the mortgage is funded by the issuance of standardized bonds, creating a large and liquid market. Indeed, the spread on Danish mortgage bonds is similar to the option-adjusted spread on bonds issued by the GSEs, although they carry no implicit government guarantees.

                  Finally, the asymmetric nature of American mortgages is replaced by what the Danes call the Principle of Balance. Every mortgage is instantly converted into a security of the same amount and the two remain interchangeable at all times. Homeowners can retire mortgages not only by paying them off, but also by buying an equivalent face amount of bonds at market price. Because the value of homes and the associated mortgage bonds tend to move in the same direction, homeowners should not end up with negative equity in their homes. To state it more clearly, as home prices decline, the amount that a homeowner must spend to retire his mortgage decreases because he can buy the bonds at lower prices.

                  The U.S. can emulate the Danish system with surprisingly few modifications from our current practices. What is required is transparent, standardized securities which create large and fungible pools. Today in the U.S., over half of all mortgages are securitized by Ginnie Mae, which issues standardized securities. All that is missing is allowing the borrowers to redeem their mortgages at the lower of par or market.

                  Because of the current havoc in the mortgage market, there is no confidence in the origination and securitization process. As a result, a government guarantee is indispensable at this time, and may be needed for the next few years. As the private sector regains its strength, the government guarantees could, and should, be gradually phased out.

                  How to get there from here? It will involve modifying the existing stock of mortgages, so that the principal does not exceed the current market value of the houses, and refinancing them with Danish-style loans. The modification will have to be done by servicing companies that need to be properly incentivized. Modifying mortgages that have been sliced and diced into securitizations may require legislative authorization. The virtual monopoly of the GSEs would be terminated and they would be liquidated over time.

                  A plan to reorganize the mortgage industry along these lines would inspire the confidence that would allow a successful recapitalization of the banking system with the help of the $700 billion package approved last week.

                  Mr. Soros is chairman of Soros Fund Management and the author of "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets" (Public Affairs, 2008).

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