Using the most recent situation reports from the Ministries of Health in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, I put the following table together. It appears that the overall CFR is going to be closer to 70%, which is higher than what is being reported. The discrepancy is due to the fact that they are dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases; however, some of those cases are still in treatment. I divided the number of deaths by the sum of total deaths plus total recovered cases.
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Ebola Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR (8,756 cases and 4,579 deaths as of ~10/8/14)
Collapse
X
-
Re: Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
Thanks for putting that together.
Although it's refreshing to see the media finally moving away from the "90 percent fatal" line which used to feature in many reports (often leaving out the "up to"), they now seem to have moved to an equally inaccurate measure just by looking at total cases and total deaths.
The problem is compounded by the WHO publicly stating that 47% survive - http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/ - which doesn't seem to be backed up by the recovery numbers.
I'm not so sure the numbers will catch up, though. The Sierra Leone figures have had a big gap between total cases and recoveries + deaths for months. A lot of cases are not being recorded as either deaths or recoveries, and I don't think that's just because a lot of them are new.
-
Re: Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
In the MoH Situation Reports, I have found either the actual number discharged/recovered, or they show the number still in treatment/current admissions. These are usually buried in one of the tables in the report.
Originally posted by Sharky View PostWhere are you getting or how are you computing the number of recovered cases?"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Comment
-
Re: Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
Here are screen shots of the data I used to determine the number of recovered cases so I could calculate a CFR.
Sierra Lione simply reports the number of cases discharged:
Liberia reports the total number currently in treatment:
Guinea also reports the total number currently in treatment:
By knowing the number in treatment, the total number of cases, and the number of deaths, I can determine the number discharged/recovered."I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Comment
-
Re: Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
Opinion
Sierra Leone News: Ebola what is the true Case Fatality Rate CFR?
...
In its web page of August 15, (http://www.msf.org/article/internati...sly-inadequate ), the organization breaks its statistics down by country. Finally here we get information that is almost complete.
For Sierra Leone:
204 confirmed cases
52 recovered
50 patients in center.
Therefore, assuming the patients who have not recovered and are not still in the center have all died (the only other option is that they left the hospital alive without being certified as recovered, which is unlikely) and discarding the 50 patients in the center whose eventual outcomes are not known, we have 102 deaths from 154 confirmed Ebola patients all of whose outcomes are known:
Sierra Leone MSF CFR = (102/154)*100 = 66.2%
For Guinea Conakry:
80 confirmed cases ***inconsistent with MSF August 8
50 recovered ***inconsistent with MSF August 8
4 patients in treatment center
Guinea Conakry MSF CFR = (26/76)*100 =34.2%
For Guinea Guekedou:
197 confirmed cases
45 recovered
11 in treatment center
Guinea Guekedou MSF CFR = (141/186)*100 = 75.8%
From the above we see that the Sierra Leone MSF CFR is not very different from the Guinea Guekedou MSF CFR. These numbers are also not very different from the maximum CFR given above from the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health figures, which also included patients not hospitalized.
We are told specifically that all the MSF cases were admitted at MSF facilities. The Guinea Conakry figure is much lower, but is based on a smaller sample and there are also inconsistencies with earlier figures.
The Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation gives figures (http://health.gov.sl/wp-content/uplo...ort_Vol-92.pdf ) for Ebola patients at the two Ebola facilities in Sierra Leone, at Kenema and Kailahun. The Kenema facility is run by Ministry of Health staff separately from the MSF Kailahun Case Management center, so it would be interesting to compare CFRs for these two different facilities.
For the Kenema facility:
Cumulative admission 390 (Note: the data does not indicate whether these were all lab confirmed with Ebola)
Cumulative discharged 175
Currently admitted 65
Cumulative deaths 162
The discharged, currently admitted and deaths exceed the admissions, which indicates a discrepancy in the data, albeit relatively small. Using the data as given, for this set of patients:
Kenema Ebola Center CFR = (162/325)*100 = 49.8%
For the Kailahun MSF facility, using the Ministry of Health data
Cumulative admissions 294
Cumulative discharged 69
Currently admitted Not indicated
Cumulative deaths 180
Assuming all admissions are accounted for, as they should be in a well run facility we can conclude that currently admitted are 294-69-180 = 45. This is close to the figure given by MSF itself above (50), although the dates are different. For this set of patients:
Kailahun MSF CFR = (180/249)*100 =72.3%
This is fairly close to the 66% figure obtained above using data from the organization’s web page of August 15.
Conclusions: Using all the available data from the two Ebola facilities in Sierra Leone we get CFRs that range between 50% and 72%. This is considerably higher than the 37.7% CFR that our Ministry of Health is reporting. The method used by MOH is mathematically incorrect and leads to an underestimation of CFR.
Comment
-
Re: Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
There is also this excerpt from MSF report yesterday:
"MSF?s care centers in Liberia and Sierra Leone are overcrowded with suspected Ebola patients. People continue to become ill and are dying in their villages and communities. In Sierra Leone, highly infectious bodies are rotting in the streets."
Comment
-
Re: Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
Thanks Al - I shouldn't post from my non-pdf, unresponsive tablet but wanted everyone to know of the first new data that's come out in 4 days. Shortly I expect to post a simple database showing a 4 week summary as well as most recent new case/death numbers and trend changes for each of the 20 most active towns, areas and counties in the 4 or maybe 5 afflicted countries, to provide an estimate of the more timely figures that WHO used to publish but has, for unknown reasons, chosen to no longer make public.
Comment
-
Re: Ebola Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
The last summary case update by the World Health Organization was on August 28, 2014. (link) WHO understands its critical role as the official international source for novel disease information. I think WHO cannot reconcile widely conflicting reports about infected cases and deaths from West Africa. At times, WHO does seem to delay public reporting of outbreak numbers until it is satisfied that the numbers are relatively accurate. I am not sure that WHO is keeping the numbers secret, it is just that they may not have a better grasp of the situation than the flublogia disease trackers following the local media and health ministry reports.
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <woNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <wontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <wontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true" DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99" LatentStyleCount="267"> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]-->
Comment
-
Re: Ebola Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
I updated the table with the latest information from Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria. The total number of deaths is in line with what was reportedly released by the WHO today, although I can't find a WHO document with the updated numbers.
Sierra Leonne has been providing daily updates on their facebook page here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Minis...81064805403702"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Comment
-
Re: Ebola Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
Building on the numbers above to get a better idea about CFR using conventional confidence intervals:
Sierra Leone: 62% (95% CI 58 to 74%)
Guinea Guekedou MS: 76% (69 to 82)
Kenema Ebola Center: 50% (44 to 55)
Kailahun MSF CFR: 72 % (66 to 78)
Overall 50% (47 to 53).
However, I suspect that may be biased, as patients who are able to make it to a centre are likely in less dire shape than those that aren't...
Comment
-
Re: Ebola Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
This is updated with the most recent numbers. I'm not clear as to the number of discharged cases in Nigeria - alert?
Also, I think we all understand that the number of cases listed as still in treatment in Sierra Leone cannot be accurate. However, to calculate the CFR only the total number of deaths is divided by the total of deaths and recovered cases, both of which are listed by the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Comment
-
Re: Ebola Summary of Cases, Deaths, Discharges, and CFR
I've updated the table below with the most current data provided at the following links:
Sierra Leone - https://www.facebook.com/pages/Minis...81064805403702
Liberia - http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/content_disp...=press_release
Guinea - http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb...EMBRE_2014.pdf
WHO - http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola...on-reports/en/
Note that something is wrong with the most recent Liberia numbers. They decreased total deaths by 70 between their situation reports 116 and 118. I doubt the overall CFR has decreased by more than 10% in the past couple of weeks.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Comment
Comment