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Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
I do not think that the google trends chart, in general, is an accurate indicator of disease prevalence. I, alone, am probably responsible for 20% of total pneumonia inquiries for searching China since everyone knows they do not have any human H1N1 or H5N1 cases.
What if all the newshounds from all the sites took a day off? Then - I wonder what google trends would show?
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
Well, this is only for UK searches (IP's from there) so I don't think you can count for any of your pneumonia inquiries
I don't think it's very accurate but yes a good indicator of what general population is looking for.
Pneumonia has reached its highest level since 2004 something that is really significant when we're seeing a big spike in severe and fatal cases in the U.K.
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
hat tip Michael Coston -
Britain on course for flu epidemic
By Laura Donnelly, Health Correspondent 6:29PM GMT 25 Dec 2010
The level of influenza – including the swine flu strain – in the population is now higher – and rising more sharply – than they were at this point in 1999, when the country was heading for an epidemic which triggered a major NHS crisis.
snip
experts believe that the rate could reach epidemic levels within a week.
The number of flu victims in intensive care has more than doubled in one week,
snip
Meanwhile, a Government memo is warning of shortages of Tamiflu – the main drug used to treat flu patients – in some parts of the country.
The rate of flu in England and Wales is 87.1 cases per 100,000 of the population, a rate which has tripled in seven days.
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
Swine flu epidemic fear as hospital admissions soar by 250 per cent in a week
By Jo Macfarlane
Last updated at 10:41 PM on 25th December 2010
...
Experts have warned the situation will get worse. The country’s leading virologist, Professor John Oxford, said: ‘I wish I could be optimistic about this outbreak,
but I have an uneasy, restless feeling.
'Swine flu is the biggest virus on the block and there are plenty of people still to infect.’
...
Some intensive care wards, and particularly those for children, are already reaching full capacity.
The NHS in England has about 3,500 critical care beds and some trusts are cancelling operations to make way for a surge in flu cases.
Consultant cardiothoracic surgeon Richard Firmin, of Leicester’s Glenfield Hospital, said: ‘If the numbers in intensive care keep going up, we’ll need further capacity and we’re running very close to the edge.’
Meanwhile, the Department of Health’s chief pharmaceutical officer, Dr Keith Ridge, has warned of potential shortages in the antiviral drug Tamiflu because of the Government’s decision to allow GPs to prescribe the drug to all people with flu-like symptoms, rather than those only in at-risk groups.
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
EXPERTS CALL FOR ALL UNDER-FIVES TO BE VACCINATED AGAINST SWINE FLU
Sunday December 26,2010
By Lucy Johnston
HEALTH experts are calling for a mass inoculation of babies and children against swine flu.
A panel of influenza specialists, which advises the Government on vaccine policy, has proposed that the jab be given to children aged between six months and five years.
However, the news has alarmed health campaigners who point out that the vaccine has not been given proper safety tests in children.
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
Dr Baker last night added: "The sudden increase in infection rates in England over the last week or two has not been seen in the rest of the UK or in countries outside the UK ... I don't know why.
Flu crisis hits cancer surgery: Hospitals struggle to cope as deaths rise and Britain teeters on the brink of an epidemic
By Sophie Borland
Last updated at 10:34 PM on 26th December 2010
Vital cancer operations are being cancelled as hospitals struggle to cope with soaring numbers of flu victims.
Trusts have begun postponing major surgery because intensive care beds that cancer patients might need for post-operative recovery are being kept free to accommodate critically ill patients struck down by the flu virus.
Experts predict that Britain is on course for the first flu epidemic in over a decade after the number of cases more than doubled in the past week...
...Experts say the outbreak could reach epidemic proportions within the next few days. The latest infection rates show an average of 87.1 cases per 100,000 people ? an epidemic is classified as more than 200 per 100,000.
But current rates are increasing much quicker than in December 1999, when there were just 60 per 100,000 over Christmas but more than 200 per 100,000 by New Year...
...One intensive care doctor described the outbreak as the worst he had seen in two decades. Dr Ian Jenkins, former president of the Paediatric Intensive Care Society, who works at Bristol Children?s Hospital, said: ?I?ve not seen this much flu in more than 20 years.?
Despite the increasing warning signs, Britain?s chief medical officer Dame Sally Davies has repeatedly insisted that the figures are in the ?normal range? for winter flu. Her attitude is very different from that of her predecessor Sir Liam Donaldson during last year?s swine flu pandemic, who at one stage predicted there could be 65,000 deaths...
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
Is it now advisable at this point to put in act some of the social distancing measures in order to reduce virus transmission, such as school closures, restricted relatives' visits to long-term care facilities inmates?
The peak of current winter epidemics could be two or three week away, so - to shorten the impact on health care system - an intense personal hygiene campaign should be pursued in UK and elsewhere in Europe as West-to-East spread of influenza to other EU member states is anticipated.
As seen in some of the southern hemisphere regions, influenza activity can be extremely variegated in terms of overall morbidity and mortality, with certain countries with low or medium activity and other will high or very high activity, or late season outbreaks.
The actual outcome of this UK winter flu season cannot be predicted, but I think there is not time to leave for implementing social distancing measures, and for re-stocking of antivirals drugs, perhaps with compassionate approval for some new (relatively) antivirals drugs such as intravenous zanamivir and peramivir.
This latter, is awaiting since 2003 for an approval and large scale production, but it was available in US last year under emergency rule.
Is it time to move ahead and improve authorities' response to predictable emergencies?
H1N1 (2009), even out of its pandemic course, has clearly retained its intrinsic virulence and pathogenicity for young adults and large reservoirs of people without or with insufficient immunity has to exist, since the 2009-2010 pandemic waves had not hit that a minority of total population.
Monday, December 27, 2010, 07:00
Three dead in swine flu outbreak: Local NHS staff on alert
THREE people in East Yorkshire have died from swine flu in the last two weeks, the Mail can reveal.
Two women and one man, who were all under the age of 50, have lost their lives after contracting the virus.
One of the women did not have any underlying health conditions and health officials have confirmed swine flu was the only cause of her death.
The other victims suffered other conditions and swine flu contributed to their deaths...
..."What we are seeing is a very quick deterioration.
"You are not feeling very well and, within a few hours, you can need life support and pass away.
"It's tragic and that is why we are asking anybody who is in an 'at risk' group to get vaccinated...
...Mr Morley said 17 patients with suspected swine flu from Hull and the East Riding have been admitted to hospital in the last two weeks.
Of those, there have been five confirmed cases, which includes the three people who have died.
Four cases were not swine flu and the test results for the remaining eight patients are still outstanding...
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza
Mother and unborn baby die during childbirth after being taken to hospital with suspected swine fluBy Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 11:55 AM on 27th December 2010
A mother and her baby have died during childbirth after being rushed to hospital with suspected swine flu.
Julie Ellison, 31, was taken into Royal Preston Hospital, but began to deteriorate.
Doctors decided to induce baby Jessica, who was due to be born on Christmas Eve, but she died during the labour.
Hours later, mum Julie, from Longridge, also died unexpectedly, without getting the chance to see her baby girl.
...
Tests have so far failed to determine a cause of the deaths, but Mr Howe said Julie had suffered from swine flu last year.
The latest sequences soon to be on file at GenBank demonstrate ongoing transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza carrying HA 188T. The Tehran University of Medical Sciences has made available A/Karaj/5327/2010(H1N1), sampled on 2010-12-06.
The National Institute for Infectious Disease in Japan introduced 13 sequences at GISAID today. One from October 2010 appears to be an intermediate form in this emerging background with 188T, though the sequence is truncated at a critical point.
Notice as we've mentioned in previous posts that the most recent IranKaraj sequence seems to have become more refined through simplification, perhaps culling the unnecessary changes (duplicate function / human species maladaption?) from JapanKanagawa74 (122I, 143R & 186P) while maintaining the useful foundation (syn34N, 146G, 188T & 200T) and extending recombination such as the syn465N found in Brisbane in August 2010, missing in the UK, then reapplied onto the IranKaraj sequence.
In similar fashion to IranKaraj at syn538F, recall that 3 of 4 sequences from the latest UK deposit carry polymorphisms in the HA gene segment downstream of aa499, including 504G, 513V, syn529L and 537G.
The PF11 viral reservoir appears to be introducing diversity with new genetic material at the head and the foot of the HA gene segment. Many of the recent related sequences to the UK backgrounds (at individual point variations) happen to carry polymorphisms in this post-aa499 area of the HA gene segment, including OzVictoria670_2010_11_14 (syn512R), OzSydney217_2010_09_19 (523A), Stockholm5_2010_08_27 (525G), GhanaFS10_4259_2010_08_27 (syn537S), GhanaFS10_4241_2010_08_25 (syn537S), Florida13_2010_08_02 (512M), OzVictoria800_2010_07_02 (502K, syn529L [CTa]), India3725_2010_04_03 (syn526S), Ukraine123_2010_02_14_xL (syn500R), Netherlands2629_2009_12_04 (507E), RussiaPermCREI_ZTS_2009_11_30 (syn542S), Brunei218_2010 (syn538F) & BrasilBahia15525_42M_2009_09_05 (syn499N mix wt, 511I mix wt).
Neuraminidase homology exists between IranKaraj and the UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 at aa240, 241, 369 and 377.
The UK NA bears a combination of successfully human-adapted H1N1 polymorphisms that have not been found together with the H3N8-matched 79P polymorphism.
Mother and unborn baby die during childbirth after being taken to hospital with suspected swine fluBy Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 11:55 AM on 27th December 2010
A mother and her baby have died during childbirth after being rushed to hospital with suspected swine flu.
Julie Ellison, 31, was taken into Royal Preston Hospital, but began to deteriorate.
Doctors decided to induce baby Jessica, who was due to be born on Christmas Eve, but she died during the labour.
Hours later, mum Julie, from Longridge, also died unexpectedly, without getting the chance to see her baby girl.
...
Tests have so far failed to determine a cause of the deaths, but Mr Howe said Julie had suffered from swine flu last year.
The notation of the mother's infection with Pandemic H1N1 last year may provide a direction of investigation into this tragic case of two lost lives.
Innate immunity drives adaptive immunity to create fully competent antibodies in a complex feedback loop using dozens of chemical signalers, a process that is far from comprehensively characterised. What IS known indicates that Pandemic Influenza 2009 (pH1N1) is effective at stalling Innate Immunity with the characteristic failure to develop fully competent antibodies against future circulating infections.
In relation to an emerging 230I carrier sub-clade, GeneWurx has discussed that a tertiary immune escape potential is suggested via this viral reservoir's effector ability to dysregulate certain human biomolecular factors including delaying the process of Interferon synthesis at exposure, reducing the activation level of Natural Killer function at exposure and, most related to this case, the acute and mid-term reduction in Plasmocytoid Dendritic Cells (pDC).
Investigating the timing of this full-term pregnancy tragedy demonstrates that an infection, as described, during the Winter of 2009, may have placed this mother into lowered Innate Immune function for a number of months. If she were ill in December 2009, then conceived sometime in March 2010, her pDC level may have been depressed for the entire period post-infection and pre-pregnancy.
Pregnancy, in and of itself, fluctuates immune function as well. The widely documented host-pathogen interplay of the pregnant woman and Pandemic Influenza is yet another level of compromise that remains not fully characterised, but has been raised as early as August 2009 as to cause (proposed Growth Factor Lambda). This mother was potentially never at full Immune Function at any time from her initial 2009 infection to the most likely fulminant and fatal pH1N1 infection that took their lives in December 2010. If the mother's immune system was suppressed, then the dependent in utero child would logically also be compromised at some rate.
These matters bear close inspection as this severe wave sweeps the UK and continues to target mothers-to-be and their babies.
Zoonotic strains in the Influenza Flux period categorically display clinical behaviour that is outside the norms of seasonal influenza. The most striking evidence from 2009 and now 2010 Pandemic H1N1 is found in the severe and fatal outcomes perpetuated across a group of victims that entirely inverts the pyramid of those infected with traditional human-adapted seasonal influenza reservoirs.
Deaths from respiratory disease in the United States moved upward to the 3rd most prevalent cause of death last year in a period when only a fraction of the Influenza deaths were actually counted. The viral genetics that swept through the world last year have been consistently upgraded and have begun to coalesce while passing from Australia in the Southern Hemisphere into the documented recent cases in Japan, the UK and now Iran in the Northern Hemisphere.
Any public health expectation / statement that this viral reservoir has become simple seasonal flu is not based on scientific fact, nor observational evidence. Critical areas of the HA antigen gene segment have documented change at 100% of the positions between amino acid positions 186 and 248. No position in that range is stable. At an amino acid level that is related to Vaccine Escape and Immune Escape, a 95% revision has been noted.
Renaming a disease, "deeming" a hopeful avirulent characteristic, based on pinstripe politics and the hegemony of monopoly, disrespects the evidence and leaves families without the information needed to make proper health decisions . . . families like this 31 year old English mother and the full-term child who were left without viable mediation measures after the evidence of danger has been downplayed for 19 months by officials fortressing their political positions and ignoring their responsibility to protect the public health.
Last edited by NS1; December 28, 2010, 01:49 AM.
Reason: Content addition
SWINE FLU COULD ‘KILL HUNDREDS OF UK CHILDREN’
The number of all age groups infected with flu has nearly tripled within a week
Tuesday December 28,2010
By Jane Mathews
A FLU epidemic could claim hundreds of young lives this winter, an expert has warned.
Nine of the 27 flu fatalities this year have been children and the figures are set to rise, influenza expert Professor John Oxford has predicted.
Figures show that in the run-up to Christmas the infection rate among those aged five to 14 rose from 58 to 160 per 100,000 people – close to the epidemic threshold of 200 per 100,000.
Professor Oxford, of Bart’s and the Royal London Hospital, said that within a week rising infections in all age groups could bring the first flu *epidemic since 2000, when thousands of elderly people died.
This time, he warned, many of the victims are likely to be children, who are particularly vulnerable to swine flu, the most dominant strain of the virus.
Prof Oxford said: “The infection rates in the five to 14-year-old age group have almost reached epidemic levels already, and I think they will go up.
“If the trend continues I would not be surprised if we get to epidemic levels within one week. The over-60 age group has got immunity because they have probably seen this virus before.
“Younger people are vulnerable because they haven’t seen this virus before – but they are more resilient. The worst case scenario would be a couple of hundred deaths. That’s more than enough, but we’re not talking thousands...”
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