4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

[sharon sanders]

2010-08-14

4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India


If someone had told the citizens that the virus would be post-pandemic on Thursday, they may have asked for a treatment deferral . . . unless they trusted their own eyes. No press release can revise the rise of a IDEARRV disease like the ΣPF11 influenza reservoir.

The facts speak for themselves.

On Monday, 2010-08-09, more than 4,000 citizens were placed on TamiFlu treatment in the city of Pune, India. 83 deaths were recorded from pre-post-pandemic influenza for the prior 7 days in India.

For the country of India, the weekly average confirmed Influenza death count over the past 14 months is slightly above 30 deaths per week. The fatality count from the past week of 83 is 2.7 times the average rate, a substantial acceleration. The Case Fatality Rate varies from 8.8% to 12.1% in the city/district based on the source of data and date bounding. Roughly 1 in 10 people with a confirmed influenza test die in India.

More than 75% of the deaths are in the 20-49 year old age bracket according to the raw data we have been able to reference, with reports from others as low as 70%. Years of Life Lost calculations defy all "normal" influenza trends. Traditional influenza has a CFR of less than half a percent and more than 98% of that half percent are over 65 or under 2 years old. These numbers from India in 2010 are not suggestive of a post-pandemic status.

Perhaps we should all just re-base now that we have read the press releases and settle ourselves into this post-pandemic era.

Step 1. We could call 83 deaths per week the new "normal" and post that idea as the rate for "seasonal" influenza. Our forms and percentages will then be quite less concerning to the public. Then we could take a note from the public health textbooks and "estimate using the most advanced models" a normal CFR and game the model variables until we evaluate to the current 8.8% CFR of India.

Step 2. Combine the power of the press with the power of the "expert" credential, even perhaps a committee of experts? In a few pen strokes and an hour here and there behind a microphone, the public would be assuaged and all could return to "business as usual".

Or we could hear the public whose health is suffering, read the data and then tell the truth.

• 4,000 on TamiFlu treatment in one day in one city
• 83 confirmed deaths in one week across India
• Post-Pandemic

One of these things is not like the other?

Though we'd like to see the sequences from these fatal cases that are currently accelerating throughout India, a review of the data on file will allow insight into the building / budding process of a pandemic virus into and out of a monsoon climate. An array of FlightPaths may be detected that led to Hydra strains downstream in time. We are under no uncertainty that the viral reservoir will follow a similar route this year.

India, last year, was a testing field for PF11. In a nutshell, the sub-continent had a depth of uptake from Asia and North America that transformed and promoted to Europe and then returned to the United States. That pathway is a generalisation / characterisation and is not comprehensive. Suspicions do lead to a repeat of last year.

Has, perhaps, the 225G on the HA and the 275Y on the NA become more substantial in India after travelling through the world? Is HA 225N playing a role in the more rapid expirations, while cross-linked 225G causes the lingering 3-5 day, ICU-bound feats of ultimate exhaustion? Is a deep, immune escape Hydra carrying HA 165N and 230I at work in the districts showing a 20-29% Case Fatality Rate?

We watch as vaccinated doctors are admitted to critical care wards, as hospitals with advanced experience and materials lose patients daily to Influenza, even upon using immediate TamiFlu blanketing. Reports of fatalities associated with caregivers, including doctors, are demonstrated in multiple geographies.

Review the sequences that have been made available. See the truth.

. . . . India3725_2010_04_03 (
. . . . . . . . 117T,
. . . . . . . . syn167S,
. . . . . . . . 186P,
. . . . . . . . syn474C,
. . . . . . . . syn526S [Malmoe2_2010_05_07 with 89G])

. . . . IndiaPune10278_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . syn48R [Norway1359_2009_05_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . UkrZakarpatska830_2009_11_12_f, et al],
. . . . . . . . syn131S [Russia, Afghan, Kenya,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY6943_2009_12_07_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wisconsin, California,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nicaragua, Greece],
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . syn413K [H9N2],
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaPune9355_2009_08 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaBlore236_2009_06_xL with 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10],
. . . . . . . . 550T [Unique to India])

. . . . IndiaPune10604_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15],
. . . . . . . . syn50V [TexasJMS391_2009_12_23,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . TexasJMS413_2009_02_03,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina02E3_2010_03_05],
. . . . . . . . syn178V (GTt) [NewHampshire02E3_2010_02_19 (GTa)],
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . syn485G [Nebraska 01_2010_01_28,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Orenburg2974_2009_11_16_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA10_22_2010_03_01])

. . . . IndiaDelhi3704_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . syn44L,
. . . . . . . . syn106E,
. . . . . . . . syn125S,
. . . . . . . . syn159N,
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . syn297N,
. . . . . . . . syn413K)

. . . . IndiaNsk10348_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn33V,
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn406R,
. . . . . . . . syn439D)

. . . . IndiaJalna9436_2009_08_30 (
. . . . . . . . 8V [Yaroslavl_KMP_2009_08_25,
. . . . . . . . . . NY7216_2009_12_21 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . Utah32_2009_10_14],
. . . . . . . . syn147F [H3N8 Avian, H4, H5, H6, H11],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Yaroslavl_KMP_2009_08_25,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaPune21115_2009_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Athens943_2009_06_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL99_2009_11_05,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Texas44301765_2009_08_30],
. . . . . . . . syn210S,
. . . . . . . . 226R)

. . . . IndiaDelhi3610_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . syn125S,
. . . . . . . . 157E,
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . syn294P,
. . . . . . . . syn464G)

. . . . IndiaMum9312_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . 208K,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . syn385V)

. . . . IndiaPune6196_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15],
. . . . . . . . syn152I,
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn300P (CCt) [H5N1, H6N1, H7N3, H7N7],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Virginia24_2009_06_03 (CCt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY0352_2009_12_27 (CCt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15 (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vietnam2043_2009_12_01_TmX (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HunanFur129_2010_01_13 (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Slovenia5613_2009_12 (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Minnesota40_2009_11_19 (CCa) w syn252V],
. . . . . . . . 342R,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . syn355H [H2, H5N1, H6N1],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [MoscowOb_ZNF_2009_11_24_xL_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . MoscowOb_STV_2009_11_09_f with 225N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ivanovo_STV1_2009_11_21 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . WiscD0589_2009_06_03])

. . . . IndiaPune9355_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . #10T,
. . . . . . . . syn#4Y [GermanyBY74_2009 with 225G & 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pensacola40_2009_11_09],
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . syn372Q [H2, H3N8, H4, H5, H6, H7N3, H7N7, H9N2, H11]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaBlore236_2009_06_xL with 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ulyanovsk_SHTA_2009_10_31_f_225N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Orenburg2974_2009_11_16_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia fatal extensive,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . swIowa35572_2009_12_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA10_22_2010_03_01],
. . . . . . . . 373K,
. . . . . . . . syn413K [H9N2],
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaBlore236_2009_06 with 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10],
. . . . . . . . 550T [Unique to India])

. . . . IndiaDhule9433_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaPune10604_2009_09, et al],
. . . . . . . . syn152I,
. . . . . . . . 176I,
. . . . . . . . 205W,
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 252L (cTG) [Maryland03_2010_01_13 (tTG),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Guangdong2361_2009_11_25 (tTG)],
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . syn386I [1918, Unique to PF11])

. . . . IndiaBlore310_2009_07 (
. . . . . . . . syn105R,
. . . . . . . . syn112S,
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . syn477T)

. . . . IndiaPune807_2009_07 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15],
. . . . . . . . 100Q [Unique to PF11],
. . . . . . . . syn104L [CalifVRDL132_2009_12_30,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Texas45122538_2009_09_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WiscD0410_2009_09_24,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WiscD1355_2009_09_21],
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . 461E [Unique to PF11])

. . . . IndiaBlore236_2009_06_xL (
. . . . . . . . 226R,
. . . . . . . . syn372Q [H2, H3N8, H4, H5, H6, H7N3, H7N7, H9N2, H11]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaPune9355_2009_08 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ulyanovsk_SHTA_2009_10_31_f_225N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Orenburg2974_2009_11_16_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia fatal extensive,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . swIowa35572_2009_12_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA10_22_2010_03_01]),
. . . . . . . . syn413K [H9N2],
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaPune9355_2009_08 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10],
. . . . . . . . 550T [Unique to India])

. . . . IndiaHyderabad51_2009_05 (
. . . . . . . . 1T,
. . . . . . . . syn74S [swNC13598_2010_03_09_xL_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 15 HA + 4 NA revisions],
. . . . . . . . syn144A (GCc) [Rome632_2009_11_23 (GCg)],
. . . . . . . . 206S)

. . . . equineIndiaAhmedabad1_2009_04_26 (H3N8) (
. . . . . . . . syn211K [H3N8],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [MXinDRE50617_2009_11_01 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Niedersachsen330_2009_07_20],
. . . . . . . . et al)

. . . . equineIndiaKatraJammu7_2008_06 (H3N8) (
. . . . . . . . syn211K [H3N8],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [MXinDRE50617_2009_11_01 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Niedersachsen330_2009_07_20],
. . . . . . . . et al)

Please refer to additional studies for further genetic analyses, including the survey on amino acid revisions potentially related to Vaccine Escape. A hyper-morphic, TamiFlu-resistant sequence from the state of Washington in Spring 2010 has recently been profiled with similar zoonotic influences.


This analysis was fueled by baingan bharta and funded with contributions from concerned families, including HOD, BMS, MJV and CSB.


Please visit GeneWurx.com for insight into the latest published studies.

[sharon sanders]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

"..A total of 4069 people were given Tamiflu after medical examination in the district on Monday..."

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=366960&postcount=219

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

Some errors from #1, and a comment.

On Monday, 2010-08-09, more than 4,000 citizens were placed on TamiFlu treatment in the city of Pune, India. 83 deaths were recorded from pre-post-pandemic influenza for the prior 7 days in that city.

The figure 83 is the number of fatalities in the whole of India. From Aug 2-8, Pune recorded 23 fatalities - a significant number by itself.

More than 75% of the deaths are in the 20-49 year old age bracket.

Last week 67%, overall in India 70% aged 20-49.

Roughly 1 in 10 people with a confirmed influenza test die in India.

Consolidated status Update 8/8: 1,833 fatalities, 36,240 confirmed cases = 5.05% or around 1 in 20. Compare that to figures from the US for Aug 30- Oct 10 2009 - 292 fatalities from 4,958 confirmed cases - 5.9%. Since April 1 in Maharashtra the ratio has approached 1 in 10, but that may well be a result of the testing regime. Government statements from Kerala at the beginning of this outbreak, forbade testing except in serious cases, but promoted Tamiflu use.

There is no evidence yet for any outlandish change in CFR in India. There is evidence for widespread transmission and resulting fatalities in some States
The original source should remember that an average of 90 deaths per week were recorded in India in December, peaking at above 100. This current outbreak certainly has the potential to exceed that and has already exceeded the first wave in Kerala and Maharashta.

Statements like this;

We watch as teams of doctors die, vaccinated doctors, as hospitals with advanced experience and materials lose patients daily to Influenza using immediate TamiFlu blanketing.

are alarmist and misleading. There is no data of teams of vaccinated doctors dying anywhere in India. In addition, many reports exist bewailing the fact that patients are waiting too long to receive treatment.

The situation in India is serious. People are dying in significant numbers in Maharashtra, cases are increasing elsewhere. But the first State to be hit in this wave - Kerala - has already seen a reduction in cases and fatalities - the wave lasted 9 weeks and resulted in 77 fatalities in a State of 32 million people. This wave in Maharashtra is in its 6th week. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday whether the number of confirmed cases continues to rise rapidly, or begins to level off.

[sharon sanders]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

Thanks RoRo and NS1.

NS1 response via email -


"Thank you for communicating the error on weekly death count contradiction between our two paragraphs. Our intention was clearly to indicate a weekly country-wide death count and the subsequent rise above average. The earlier sentence was a typographical category attribution mistake and has been corrected. Your reader?s demonstration of a Peaking Average is appreciated, but we?d note that the Peaking Weekly Average (especially over a term of 24-28 days) may be a less than optimal evaluative measure. Public health authorities make a normal practice of situating current data against averages over time. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
We evaluate evidence, all the details we can find and process. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
We openly advise in the narrative that a wide variety of data from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region> is being produced, frequently contradictory. No one attempting to norm the available data may claim complete accuracy because the incoming data is tinged. The official public data for 2010 and the media reports trend between 1 in 8 and 1 in 12 dying. Ergo, our term, ?Roughly 1 in 10?. The summary concepts are presented as summary concepts for ease of public consumption.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Data on case counts by age is welcomed if your reader is also calculating them."

[sharon sanders]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

NS1 has updated post #1.

Thank you to all participants in the search for the truth.

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

Or we could hear the public whose health is suffering, read the data and then tell the truth.


4,000 on TamiFlu treatment in one day in one city
83 confirmed deaths in one week in one city
Post-Pandemic
One of these things is not like the other?

The error is still contained in the original post.

We watch as teams of doctors die, vaccinated doctors, as hospitals with advanced experience and materials lose patients daily to Influenza using immediate TamiFlu blanketing.

Remains alarmist and false. I ask NS1 to substantiate or retract the first part of this statement. And again the fact that delayed treatment has been a constant refrain in India has been ignored. If NS1 has data to substantiate that rapid deaths are now a greater proportion of total deaths, he has not shown it.

Yes, numbers can be played. Here's some: From Jan 1 to April 30th 2010 India registered 4,528 cases and 528 fatalities - 11.7%. From May 1 to August 8, the period of this latest wave, India registered 5,673 cases and 338 fatalities - 6.0%.

Is a deep, immune escape Hydra carrying HA 165N and 230I at work in the districts showing a 20-29% Case Fatality Rate?

Or is it simply an artifact of small sample size and/or healthcare in that District? Using cumulative data from April 1 2010 to August 12 in Maharashtra, it is apparant that districts with large sample sizes do not approach the 20-29% CFR quoted.

District------------fatalities/cases-----%
Pune--------------130/1246--------10.4
BMC---------------31/692----------4.5
Latur--------------15/249----------6.0
Nasik--------------19/182----------10.4
Kolhapur*----------32/141----------22.7
Thane--------------7/41-----------17.1
Aurangabad---------8/33-----------24.2
Nagpur-------------6/14-----------42.9
Akola---------------1/7------------14.3

State:------------249/2605--------9.6
* Kolhapur district includes several fatalities of patients from Karnataka.



For my research on H1N1 in India please see; http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=123501

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=150451

and on Maharashtra in particular;

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=151068

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=124573

[tetano]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

There is no data of teams of vaccinated doctors dying anywhere in India.

Perhaps they relate to this news, reported in Andhra Pradesh:


The three doctors undergoing treatment include two house surgeons and one assistant professor. They are being treated in isolated wards, where patients who are critical are treated. Interestingly, despite all three of them taking the preventive swine flu vaccine several days ago, they still contracted the virus.

http://expressbuzz.com/cities/hyderabad/fear-of-h1n1-grips-gandhi-hospital/197096.html

but it is not said that doctors died...

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

Perhaps. My problem with the original post is that the false and exaggerated claims - 83 fatalities in 1 city, teams of vaccinated doctors dying, fatalities in spite of immediate treatment, high cfr - are being used to promote scares of mutation, vaccine escape and Tamiflu resistance.

Conclusions were (and continue to be) built on a series of false premises that are unsupported by the data.

This serious outbreak is continuing in Maharashtra. From April 1 to Aug 15th, 682,689 patients have presented with ILI, 90,072 have been prescribed Tamiflu, 9,195 admitted to hospital, 8,188 discharged, and 270 have died. This data does not support widespread transmission of a Tamiflu resistant high cfr virus.

[tetano]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

I agree completely

[sharon sanders]

Re: 4,069 People Began TamiFlu Treatment on Monday in Pune India

Post 1 updated.

NS1 is working on answering some of the issues raised in this discussion.