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'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

Gemineye

Gemineye

Well-known member
nbcnews.com

Authorities in Dallas declared Monday that dozens of people coming off the Ebola watch list pose ?zero risk? and pleaded for compassion as those people re-enter society, including children returning to school...

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/eb...sk-dozens-come-ebola-watch-list-texas-n229581

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These kinds of blanket statements drive me crazy. Studies have show that EBV patients CAN develop symptoms after 21 days. "Extremely small risk" would be much better than ?zero risk?.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

Agreed. And nothing will generate 'panic' and distrust of everything people are told by the authorities than if a new case now emerges that had completed 21 days monitoring without incident.

Using absolute certainty in language where no complete certainty exists based on the data is a very risky communications strategy in a situation where you are trying to generate trust, authority, and calm fears.

The data shows that there is still a very tiny risk over the next 10 days to 2 weeks still for a case to emerge following an unusually long incubation period, even if it is very 'rare' ... there are enough examples of this happening to date to know that it can, and does, very occasionally happen.

Hopefully it wont.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

I'm actually wondering if these cases with "very long incubation periods" are not actually the result of persons being infected by people who where low symptomatic. An example of this would be Port Harbor. The Diplomat did get sick but by all accounts was only sick for 4 days and didn't have as severe of symptoms as are usually present. If we hadn't been able to test we might never have known he was sick. In the past these types of infections may have been missed, leading to "long incubation periods". No proof of this of course. I just find it interesting.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

It would be interesting to see if any of the family members developed antibodies to Ebola (not that is it any of our business). I'm not particularly concerned that any one released will go on to develop disease at this point. I would be extremely surprised if they did. I hope all goes well for every one.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

AnnaLisa said:
It would be interesting to see if any of the family members developed antibodies to Ebola (not that is it any of our business). .........
Click to expand...
They may have had them prior to Duncan's illness, if they spent much time in West Africa & that's what kept them well, but we won't know unless they were tested 21 days ago. We'd need to distinguish whether antibodies were old or newly acquired.

.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

alforddm said:
I'm actually wondering if these cases with "very long incubation periods" are not actually the result of persons being infected by people who where low symptomatic.
Click to expand...

Something I have also considered.

Either way, cases emerging after 21 days up to 42 days after apparent high risk exposure, means one of two options:- either it is possible for someone with mild disease to transmit (in rare circumstances), or there are cases with an unusually long incubation period.

Either option falls outside of current messaging.

Hopefully, neither will happen in this particular case.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

It's possible that we may have overestimated the infectiousness at the start of the disease, and vastly underestimated it in the fulminant to terminal stages.

I'm not sure we have a handle on the incubation period, but, given individual differences 21 days may be reasonable. I'm sure there will be a case or two that go longer.

The fact is, we don't know the facts, yet.
 
Re: 'Zero Risk': Dozens Come Off Ebola Watch List in Texas

It would be helpful to see data on viral load over the progression of disease, from time after exposure to disease resolution or death.

Hopefully some data on this will be published soon..
 
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