Commonground
Senior Moderator
28 September 2026
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OECD simulations using the Strategic Public Health Planning model for PPR assessed five outbreak scenarios, these being Ebola-like; avian influenza-like; influenza A-like coronavirus-like; and measles – like outbreaks, as a stress test for health systems and economies.
“When health systems are overwhelmed, economies stumble. Across all five outbreak scenarios, failure to mitigate outbreaks would result in sharp GDP contractions of between 2.7% in a coronavirus-like outbreak and 16.2% in a measles-like outbreak, on average, with the scale of damage varying across countries. Transport and storage, manufacturing and administrative and support services would consistently be amongst the hardest-hit sectors of the economy,” the report says.
The report argues that investment in PPR “is modest relative to the potential losses.” The report says that many countries have scaled back the funding available for strengthening their PPR capacity, with global PPR spending standing at $230 billion in 2022, dropping from its peak of $267 billion in 2021. “Health systems around the globe continue to face chronic workforce shortages and underinvestment in surveillance of emerging health threats,” the report warns.
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NPIs, which include physical distancing and ensuring safe travel, can be deployed promptly and adjusted when policy makers have “timely and accurate data on how an outbreak is unfolding.” The OECD adds that its analysis suggests that waste water surveillance can strengthen the protective impacts of NPIs and lockdown policies.
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The report also said the rising threat of zoonotic disease means efforts to capture PPR capacities need to go beyond focussing solely on human health. "Many emerging pathogens originate in animals and are amplified by land-use change, food production practices and environmental degradation," it said, warning that measurement should incorporate animal health surveillance, environmental monitoring and human-wildlife interactions to identify risks early and prevent outbreaks before they reach human populations.
more...
www.soci.org
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OECD simulations using the Strategic Public Health Planning model for PPR assessed five outbreak scenarios, these being Ebola-like; avian influenza-like; influenza A-like coronavirus-like; and measles – like outbreaks, as a stress test for health systems and economies.
“When health systems are overwhelmed, economies stumble. Across all five outbreak scenarios, failure to mitigate outbreaks would result in sharp GDP contractions of between 2.7% in a coronavirus-like outbreak and 16.2% in a measles-like outbreak, on average, with the scale of damage varying across countries. Transport and storage, manufacturing and administrative and support services would consistently be amongst the hardest-hit sectors of the economy,” the report says.
The report argues that investment in PPR “is modest relative to the potential losses.” The report says that many countries have scaled back the funding available for strengthening their PPR capacity, with global PPR spending standing at $230 billion in 2022, dropping from its peak of $267 billion in 2021. “Health systems around the globe continue to face chronic workforce shortages and underinvestment in surveillance of emerging health threats,” the report warns.
snip
NPIs, which include physical distancing and ensuring safe travel, can be deployed promptly and adjusted when policy makers have “timely and accurate data on how an outbreak is unfolding.” The OECD adds that its analysis suggests that waste water surveillance can strengthen the protective impacts of NPIs and lockdown policies.
snip
The report also said the rising threat of zoonotic disease means efforts to capture PPR capacities need to go beyond focussing solely on human health. "Many emerging pathogens originate in animals and are amplified by land-use change, food production practices and environmental degradation," it said, warning that measurement should incorporate animal health surveillance, environmental monitoring and human-wildlife interactions to identify risks early and prevent outbreaks before they reach human populations.
more...
Why pandemic preparedness makes 'smart' economic sense
There is a strong economic case for countries to invest in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) measures that help support fast action in the early stages of an emerging epidemic, a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned.
www.soci.org
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