WHO: 700 more Ebola cases emerge in only 1 week

[Gemineye]

By The Associated Press
As reported in The Washington Post

The World Health Organization says more than 700 more Ebola cases emerged in West Africa in one week, a statistic that shows the outbreak is accelerating.

Just three weeks ago the number of new cases was around 500 for a one-week period...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...f1e21c-3f1a-11e4-a430-b82a3e67b762_story.html

 

[Vibrant62]

Re: WHO: 700 more Ebola cases emerge in only 1 week

It is also worth noting that WHO numbers will not include those individuals turned away from isolation and treatment centers, due to a lack of capacity.

Various news reports have included statements of 20 - 30 patients turned away daily from each treatment center, although some of these cases could be presenting at many different centers and would therefore be double counted, if approximations were made to include individuals presenting but sent back home.

Either way WHO figures remain a gross underestimate of true numbers.

 

[franzpick]

Re: WHO: 700 more Ebola cases emerge in only 1 week

Comparing changes in the rates of daily new cases reported over the past 2 weeks by the 3 countries, Guinea shows the only reduction, from a 5 day moving average of 24 cases per day on Sep. 5th, to a 5 day MA of only 9 new cases per day on Sep. 17th; if this new low rate can be maintained, and the new military hospital built quickly enough, Guinea may be setting the example for other countries to follow.

Sierra Leone's 5 day new case daily average has worsened moderately from 26 cases/day on Sep. 5th to 32 new cases/day average on Sep. 17th, with its doubling period reducing slightly to around 55 days.

Liberia's 5 day new case daily average has deteriorated from 52/day on Sep. 7th to 84 new cases per day average on Sep. 15th, while the approximate doubling period has decreased from +/-40 days on Sep. 7th to +/-33 days on Sep. 15th.

Contrary to the opinion of most others, I expect a relative lowering of short-term daily new case averages, compared to some longer-term daily averages (using an optimized oscillator), to give the first indication that the current exponentially increasing rate of infection is slowing, and some measure of containment or other transmission factor has occurred.

While doubling periods can be 'observed' from case totals, and then somehow 'estimated', the future doubling period remains a function of the current compounding rate: 1.03% doubles (2.03) in 24 days, 1.035% doubles (2.06) in 21 days, 1.04% (2.03) in 18 days.

 

[franzpick]

Re: WHO: 700 more Ebola cases emerge in only 1 week

By The Associated Press
As reported in The Washington Post

The World Health Organization says more than 700 more Ebola cases emerged in West Africa in one week, a statistic that shows the outbreak is accelerating.

Just three weeks ago the number of new cases was around 500 for a one-week period...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...f1e21c-3f1a-11e4-a430-b82a3e67b762_story.html

Don't accept WHO's numbers until you've read their brief footnotes under Table 1; three times they have OMITTED Liberian totals - Aug. 16th, Sep. 6 and recently Sep. 10,11,12+13, even though the Liberian MOHsw had already officially released numbers for 2 of the 4 excluded dates, Sep. 10 + 11.

Some observers are getting more inclusive and up-to-date daily data from the 3 ministries of health:

Guinea: http://www.ambafrance-gn.org/-Ambassade-de-France-a-Conakry-
Sierra Leone: http://health.gov.sl/?page_id=576
Liberia: http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/content_display.php?sub=report2