US: Scientists Trying To Predict Number of Cases For 2014

[hawkeye]

Bigger than a breadbox, smaller than a house?

"...This week, several top infectious disease experts ran simulations for The Associated Press that predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130.

"I don't think there's going to be a huge outbreak here, no," said Dr. David Relman, a professor of infectious disease, microbiology and immunology at Stanford University's medical school. "However, as best we can tell right now, it is quite possible that every major city will see at least a handful of cases."..."

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/scientists-predict-number-us-ebola-cases-26621993

 

[Pathfinder]

Scientists try to predict number of US Ebola cases

Scientists try to predict number of US Ebola cases

More from the article provided by hawkeye:

Scientists Try to Predict Number of US Ebola Cases

STANFORD, Calif. ? Nov 1, 2014, 10:42 PM ET
By MARTHA MENDOZA AP National Writer
...
Pandemic risk expert Dominic Smith, a senior manager for life risks at Newark, California-based RMS, a leading catastrophe-modeling firm, ran a U.S. simulation this week that projected 15 to 130 cases between now and the end of December. That's less than one case per 2 million people.

Smith's method assumes that most cases imported to the U.S. will be American medical professionals who worked in West Africa and returned home.
...
"My worry is that the epidemic might spill into other countries in Africa or the Middle East, and then India or China. That could be a totally different story for everybody," Vespignani said.

Dr. Ashish Jha, a Harvard University professor and director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said he's not worried about a handful of new cases in the U.S. His greatest worry is if the disease goes from West Africa to India.

"If the infection starts spreading in Delhi or Mumbai, what are we going to do?"
...
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/scientists-predict-number-us-ebola-cases-26621993