TrueScotsman
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Weekly pandemic flu media update
KEY POINTS
The flu-like illness rate in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme increased to 29.1 per 100,000 in week 41. An increase was seen in most age groups except those over 65 years.
The main burden of flu-like illness nationally is in the 5-14 and 15-24 years age groups.
This week, the antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service have continued to increase and this has been seen in all age groups except the over 65s. The largest increase (17%) in week 41 was seen in the 5-14 year olds.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 27,000 new cases in England last week (range 13,000 to 58,000) compared with 18,000 in week 40. This indicates a doubling every two weeks.
During week 39 (September 27-October 3) flu activity increase sharply in the US.
In week 41 (ending 11 October) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England increased compared to the previous week (26.3 per 100,000 in week 40 to 29.1 per 100,000 in week 41). This is still just below the baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
Figure 2: QSurveillance® - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance® - daily consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 41 (ending 11 October)
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 14 October 2009) 1,468 viruses have been analysed by the Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). Two viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK. In addition, 285 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility.
The Agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 363 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 14 October).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 83 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
KEY POINTS
The flu-like illness rate in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme increased to 29.1 per 100,000 in week 41. An increase was seen in most age groups except those over 65 years.
The main burden of flu-like illness nationally is in the 5-14 and 15-24 years age groups.
This week, the antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service have continued to increase and this has been seen in all age groups except the over 65s. The largest increase (17%) in week 41 was seen in the 5-14 year olds.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 27,000 new cases in England last week (range 13,000 to 58,000) compared with 18,000 in week 40. This indicates a doubling every two weeks.
During week 39 (September 27-October 3) flu activity increase sharply in the US.
In week 41 (ending 11 October) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England increased compared to the previous week (26.3 per 100,000 in week 40 to 29.1 per 100,000 in week 41). This is still just below the baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
Figure 2: QSurveillance® - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance® - daily consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 41 (ending 11 October)
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 14 October 2009) 1,468 viruses have been analysed by the Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). Two viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK. In addition, 285 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility.
The Agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 363 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 14 October).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 83 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).