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U.S. officials predict a return of avian flu in the fall

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
US | Tue Apr 28, 2015 6:35pm EDT Related: U.S., HEALTH

U.S. officials predict a return of avian flu in the fall

CHICAGO | BY JULIE STEENHUYSEN AND P.J. HUFFSTUTTER

(Reuters) - ...

Officials with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) told Reuters the H5N2 virus ? along with two other highly pathogenic strains of bird flu - will likely be passed among birds at breeding grounds in the northern United States and Canada through the summer.
...
Less than a week ago, USDA?s Chief Veterinary Officer John Clifford told reporters he wasn?t ?forecasting anything for the fall.? If the virus were to reappear then, Clifford said it would likely be found along migratory paths that cross over top-producing chicken productions states such as Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.
...
Based on evidence gathered so far from tracking wild and domestic birds between December and April, "it is highly probable" that the viruses will be maintained in some of the North American wild duck populations through the summer breeding season, APHIS officials said in an email.
...
?Usually these young birds are the most susceptible ones. They have no immunity. They are loaded with influenza viruses,? said Dr. Rubin Donis, an associate director for policy and preparedness in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza division.

If the viruses becomes part of that breeding reservoir, ?then we may be doing control and eradication for years to come,? Donis said. ?The problem is with wildlife, there is no way to control their movements or their methods.?

As young, infected ?hatch-year? birds mingle with other hatch-year birds and adults during the migration season, ?we anticipate higher numbers of infected birds next fall to move these viruses south again, into areas in which they are currently being detected and potentially areas where we have yet to detect them,? APHIS said in the statement sent to Reuters.
...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...lu-virus-spread-insight-idUSKBN0NJ2PC20150428
 
?Usually these young birds are the most susceptible ones. They have no immunity. They are loaded with influenza viruses,?

Some virologists are starting to work with ecologists and bird experts to study what happens in the field. The closer they get to that reality, the more it looks like concerns about young birds and migration might be not be the issue.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3634042/
Tolf C, Latorre-Margalef N, Wille M, et al. Individual Variation in Influenza A Virus Infection Histories and Long-Term Immune Responses in Mallards. Brown JD, ed. PLoS ONE. 2013;8(4):e61201. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0061201.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3634042/
Van Dijk JGB, Fouchier RAM, Klaassen M, Matson KD. Minor differences in body condition and immune status between avian influenza virus-infected and noninfected mallards: a sign of coevolution? Ecology and Evolution. 2015;5(2):436-449. doi:10.1002/ece3.1359.
 
For every study there is usually one with an opposing view:

Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 May;21(5):872-4. doi: 10.3201/eid2105.141839.
[h=1]Full-Genome Sequence of Influenza A(H5N8) Virus in Poultry Linked to Sequences of Strains from Asia, the Netherlands, 2014.[/h] Bouwstra R, Heutink R, Bossers A, Harders F, Koch G, Elbers A.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Genetic analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus from the Netherlands, and comparison with strains from Europe, South Korea, and Japan, showed a close relation. Data suggest the strains were probably carried to the Netherlands by migratory wild birds from Asia, possibly through overlapping flyways and common breeding sites in Siberia.

hat tip tetano for the link.


Avian flu is spread by many vectors and manners.




 
Sharon, I must not have made it clear that I was addressing specifically Donis's statement about the potential threat of young birds. The two articles I posted examine that specifically.

The article about the outbreak in the Netherlands examines bird migration as a factor in an H5N8 outbreak there:

Second, when the virus was detected, the Netherlands had no direct trade contact with other European countries or Asia that might explain a route of introduction.

Not all trade is legal and documented:

http://www.vanuhmresearch.com/uploa...m_-_Organised_Crime_in_the_Wildlife_Trade.pdf
The wildlife trade is a growing business, which is driven by significant demand for live specimens and animal parts. The Netherlands operates as a hub between Europe and the rest of the world.
http://www.birdkeepers.com.au/parrot-eggs-smuggler-to-be-deported
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25153315

That is why another statement by Donis troubled me:

?The problem is with wildlife, there is no way to control their movements or their methods.?
 
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