U.S. bird flu virus seen under control within four months: OIE....(or not)

[Pathfinder]

US | Tue May 26, 2015 8:28am EDT Related: U.S., HEALTH

U.S. bird flu virus seen under control within four months: OIE

PARIS | BY SYBILLE DE LA HAMAIDE

An epidemic of bird flu that has devastated U.S. poultry flocks this year is likely to be under control within four months as the United States steps up measures to contain the virus, the head of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said.

However, there is a high risk that strains of the virus will continue to spread within the American continent, mainly Mexico, which should prompt farmers and authorities to boost biosecurity measures, OIE Director General Bernard Vallat told Reuters.
...
"I think it cannot worsen in the United States," Vallat said. "Given the scale of the damage and the pressure on farmers I believe they will quickly protect themselves more efficiently. There are huge economic stakes here."

Although the U.S. bird flu toll could reach 50 million, the infection rate has reached a top, Vallat said, predicting the end of the epidemic in September, with possible sporadic cases every few weeks.
...
The bird flu epidemic in the United States was particularly severe because farmers were not prepared, and because of the size of its farms, Vallat said.

"U.S. farms are more concentrated than in other countries such as in the European Union. Of course this has an impact on the number of birds infected or killed," he said. "When a virus enters a farm like that, it's a real disaster."

While the U.S. threat is seen fading, Vallat highlighted risks to other countries in the region, particularly Mexico, and urged a stronger approach to biosecurity measures.
...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/26/us-health-birdflu-usa-idUSKBN0OB19W20150526

 

[sharon sanders]

I hope the OIE is correct but the USDA said at a news conference that they expect H5N2 to be in the 4th (Eastern) flyway this fall which may initiate more outbreaks:

U.S. officials predict a return of avian flu in the fall

 

[Shannon Bennett]

I would find this article more convincing if they knew exactly how the birds were being infected. So far there is no consensus on how the virus is spreading. The virus will probably abate during the summer monthes as this is a normal course for the virus to take. However, in four monthes when the seasons change and birds start moving south for the winter, all bets are off.

 

[Pathfinder]

Health | Tue May 26, 2015 1:15pm EDT

USDA chief vet says bird flu cases waning, sees end by July

PARIS

The number of cases of bird flu in the United States has started to decline and the epidemic is likely to be over within a couple of months, helped by warm weather in the summer, the U.S. chief veterinary officer said on Tuesday.

"We believe the worst is behind us, which doesn't mean that we still won't see additional cases but we know we see a decline in cases," John Clifford, Chief Veterinary Officer for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, told Reuters.
...
"Summertime is coming. It gets hot in these places in July and because the heat and the sunlight reduces the virus present in the environment we will stop seeing cases," Clifford said on the sidelines of the general assembly of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) in Paris.
...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/26/us-health-birdflu-usa-usda-idUSKBN0OB24R20150526

 

[JJackson]

Did anyone see a reason for this optimistic projection? It seems strange to be told a flu strain that seems to be spreading nicely is just going to go away.
Has bio-security been so bad that a quick review - now that we know there are pathogens out there - is going to stop spread in its tracks?
If it has a reservoir in the wild bird population then it would be expected to become endemic at some level at least for a while, until it is out performed. Normally epidemics end once herd immunity has developed sufficiently. If the chickens are the primary host this will never happen as they are culled before we know if any would survive. If the host is in a wild animal that population may adapt, and its epidemic may pass, but if it achieves a balance with the virus then their will always be naive poultry to infect.
I looked up Dr. Vallat's bio and this is a well credentialed Frenchman who either knows more than I have seen published or ?

 

[sharon sanders]

I agree with Shannon and JJackson. I added "..(or not)" to the title. I hope farmers do not let their guard down anticipating a wind down of avian influenza by the fall.

 

[Pathfinder]

I believe that Reuters is reporting from the OIE World conference in Paris.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIE World Conferences


24-29 May 2015

83rd General Session of the World Assembly of OIE Delegates Paris (France)
Information

The 83rd General Session of the World Assembly of OIE Delegates will be held from 24 to 29 May 2015, bringing together representatives of 180 OIE Members and observers from international organisations that have signed an official agreement with the OIE, as well as other international and regional organisations and invited guests.

The General Session will be held at the ?Maison de la Chimie1 from Sunday 24 May 2015 to Thursday 28 May 2015 inclusive, and at the OIE Headquarters2 on Friday 29 May 2015 (Friday?s session is exclusively for the Delegates; it concerns administrative and financial affairs and elections).

The World Assembly of OIE Delegates establishes the policies of the OIE and supervises their implementation. This year, its main work concerns the adoption of new international standards applicable to animal diseases prevention and control, animal welfare and international exchanges of animals and products of animal origin.

During the 83rd annual General Session, the OIE Delegates will be called to elect the members of the OIE governance bodies (Council and Bureaux of the Regional Commissions), the experts of the four specialized committees and the Director General.

During the General Session, a Technical Item of general interest will be presented by Rapporteurs chosen for their international competency : the use of information technology in animal health management, disease reporting, surveillance and emergency response.

The opening session of the World Assembly of OIE Delegates is always a special event owing to the presence of important personalities from around the world.

In addition to the President and the Director General, addresses will be made in particular by Heads of States and Ministers of several OIE Members.

http://www.oie.int/eng/Session2015/information.html

 

[Pathfinder]

[TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="class: BodyTextBlackBold, align: center"]Transcript: USDA and CDC Update to Media on Highly Pathogenic H5N2 Avian Influenza Outbreaks[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: BodyTextBlackBold, align: center"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: BodyTextBlack"]Moderator: Rodney Bain
April 22, 2015
11:00 am EDT[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

...
Rod Bain: And our next question today belongs to Kelsey Gee of the Wall Street Journal. Kelsey, good morning.

Kelsey Gee: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the time. So my question is, it's been reported that this virus could continue to spread beyond the migratory pathways that we've already identified it in, potentially moving toward the East Coast.
I'm wondering if you could say a little bit more about how that could happen and what you're forecasting for this fall.

Dr. John Clifford: Well you know from my perspective, I don't know if I'm forecasting anything for the fall. I would hope that we wouldn't see any more. However, because the fact that this virus has seemed to have adapted itself pretty well for the wild water fowl, and the fact that we've seen it already in three of the flyways, and including Ontario Canada now has had two cases which I guess there's some question whether it's in the Atlantic or Mississippi flyway.

But regardless, you know these birds, they don't just stay in one flyway. There's some crossover and mixing of these, especially in the northern part of the hemisphere here.

And so we would anticipate, if we see the virus again in the fall, that we're likely to see it all four flyways.
And I know Dr. Swayne has done a lot of work in this area, so David, you might want to also.

Dr. David Swayne: I think, just to emphasize what Dr. Clifford said, we can't really predict what's going to happen in the future. And we do have a concern and there is a concerted effort within USDA, USGS and other groups to continue to sample wild water fowl to try to track the virus.

But once the birds go in the summer up to their northern breeding grounds, it's really not sure if they will be able to bring the virus back south or not, or if the virus will burn out.

We have to prepare for that potential option, but we can't predict what will happen in the fall.
...
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/...entidonly=true

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Burn out..., yea, sure you betcha'. Anyone have a bridge they want to sell him?

 

[JJackson]

I have to admit to not having followed the North American HPAI outbreak in great detail - it is very well watched by my N. American colleagues here. My impression was that there was a very poor understanding of this strain's wild host(s) - assuming it has one, or more, wild bird hosts. If this is the case it seems difficult to predict anything much about its movements. Obvious not all species are migratory and those that do move to breed or feed may move only short distances. Until we understand the reservoir species I do not see how anyone can make reliable predictions about where it is likely to go next. If it is in only one long range migratory species they could be right on the other hand ...

Re. Dr. Vallat
I am obviously getting cynical in my old age as when scientists make statements which seem hopeful - but for which I can not see the logic - I tend to look for information they may have I was not aware of. If I can not find it I look for political pressure, or careerism. So I looked. The problem is Dr. Vallat is 68 years old, has held the post of DG of the OIE for three consecutive five year terms and his successor has already been chosen and will take over officially on 1/1/2016. He has a bucket load of degrees and National medals of honour and so seems to be virtually immune to any kind of outside pressure. I do not know what, if anything, he intends to do now but unless he is taking a well paid job gracing a N. American poultry producer's letterhead it is difficult to see how anyone could influence him.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

I think we are just too ignorant (all of us not just the good doctor) to understand exactly what is going on. What I do know is that the virus is spreading and shows no signs of abating. It is in fact happily replicating and evolving. Apparently it has a host that shows little or no signs of illness. As for the host we know that every flu is found in the reservoir of wild ducks. That is where most of the non-human virus we know of were first identified. Even if this flu does not come from the wild duck population now it probably did at some point. Which means new spring hatchlings will be susceptible after they hatch this spring. We also know that this virus can linger in ponds for months if conditions are right. They can also attach themselves to dust particles. Infected ponds, dust particles and sick birds both coughing and excreting the virus make passing the virus to new victims a foregone conclusion. Warm weather here in the states is going to help curb the spread as it always does in the summer but, that certainly is not the case in the far northern breeding grounds. All those new chicks mean new generations of previously uninfected populations. And more mutations in the virus. Until the bird populations have enough infected to reach a herd immunity this virus is going to be around.

 

[Emily]

The good thing about having a lot of experience like Dr. Vallat, is that he probably remembers previous NA outbreaks. The last one lasted from fall of 1983 into 1984, though I'm not sure when active infections stopped. The last slaughter was done in September of 1984, but they were destroying flocks for just having antibodies then.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/3298740?...n_tab_contents
www.oie.int/doc/ged/d6160.pdf

In that case it was believed that low-path H5N2 mutated into a high-path version. This could have happened in a domestic host, then the virus might have spilled over into wild birds, but not be persistent in the wild.

It is interesting to me that there was an aflatoxin problem about the time the last H5N2 outbreak happened that led to FDA increasing limits in animal feeds, just as they did in 2012 again in the worst affected states in the US. The environment could play in a big part in these outbreaks. There was even a very serious hi-path outbreak of H5N8 in domestic chickens and ducks in Ireland in 1983.

 

[JJackson]

Emily the situation is very different in the two scenarios, with a relatively asymptomatic natural host or without. The without is rare and requires a genetic change of an extant poultry virus (which, as a largely poultry virus, is like to have difficult sustaining itself in a wild bird host). In the with scenario you need a reasonably fit wild type strain in some kind of balance with its wild host, the strain needs to be close enough to the poultry index to readily infect poultry and then you need a mechanism to get it into a susceptible poultry host. Farm Bio-security is supposed to isolate the poultry from danger, furthermore these measures are all meant to be in place already but do not seem to be adequate.
I am more inclined to view this as being akin to the H5N1 situation in SE Asia, there being continuous danger to farms from the wild birds in the area. It remains to be seen whether the wildtype is robust enough - and in the right mix of hosts - to survive a 12 month cycle and still be close enough to the poultry index to keep being a commercial threat.
The US seems to think its greater wealth will allow it to fare better than it Asian counterparts but we are well into this outbreak but do not seem to have a handle on the reservoir or how it is getting into the commercial flocks. To me, at least, it is difficult to see the basis for the optimism.

 

[Emily]

I'm afraid we have both scenarios going on here, JJackson. The H5N8 could be the "with" and the H5N2 looks like the "without" to me. But H5N8 was easily defeated as a threat to farmers in California. The H5N2 that evolved in Canada was defeated by Fraser Valley producers due to their preparedness in lobbying the government for strict and vast control zones. (They lost all their 7.5 million birds in the 2004 avian flu outbreak, so learned from that.) We had no more outbreaks in the wild or in domestic poultry across the border in Washington after that. The Fraser Valley producers are already getting prepared for the next outbreak and are committed to an even smaller one in the future.

So I guess Dr. Vallat is confusing Canada with the US in his optimism, at least in the short run.

http://www.secureturkeysupply.com/supplemental-materials/biosecurity-checklists/

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