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Source: http://www.cleveland.com/healthfit/index.ssf/2009/10/tracking_swine_flu_not_simple.html
Tracking swine flu not simple arithmetic
By Harlan Spector, The Plain Dealer
October 04, 2009, 12:06AM
Part of the responsibility of public health agencies is to track the spread of infectious diseases like swine flu.
But how do they track swine flu when federal health officials stopped counting cases in July? How do they know how many people get the flu, or how severe the illnesses become?
Public health officials say it's not practical to literally count swine flu cases once the virus becomes widespread. Only a small percentage of flu cases would be recorded anyway, since most people don't get sick enough to be tested, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says on its Web site.
Instead, the CDC relies on reports every week on doctor visits, hospitalizations and deaths related to flu and pneumonia (a complication of flu). The reports don't distinguish between seasonal flu and swine flu. But the CDC says it uses lab reports from all 50 states to determine the percentage of circulating flu viruses that are H1N1.
During the week of Sept. 13-19, for instance, the CDC reports 2,326 positive cases of flu. Virtually all the flu samples that were tested for the subtype turned out to be H1N1.
The Ohio Department of Health, which feeds information to the CDC, says it will use the same methods to track swine flu as it has used in past years to track seasonal flu. Health-care providers are required to report to the state flu-related hospitalizations, pediatric deaths and outbreaks. The department also will rely on 71 "sentinel" outpatient providers to report flulike illnesses and submit samples to the state for flu testing. Public agencies also monitor emergency room visits, over-the-counter drug sales and pneumonia and flu deaths to determine the level of flu activity.
Asked if the CDC will estimate the total number of swine flu cases, state health officials said they didn't know. A CDC spokesperson did not respond to inquiries. The CDC referred questions about tracking H1N1 here.
In Cleveland, a new collaboration called the University Alliance on Infectious Diseases also may be tracking H1N1 through tests at various clinical sites serving the poor. The project out of Case Western Reserve University is still seeking university funding. It proposes to test thousands of blood samples for flu antibodies, said Dr. Frank Esper, an infectious-disease specialist at CWRU and Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital.
"By looking at blood, we may get a better understanding of how many people have come into contact with the infection," said Esper.
The project should help with planning for swine flu in the years to come, he said.
Tracking swine flu not simple arithmetic
By Harlan Spector, The Plain Dealer
October 04, 2009, 12:06AM
Part of the responsibility of public health agencies is to track the spread of infectious diseases like swine flu.
But how do they track swine flu when federal health officials stopped counting cases in July? How do they know how many people get the flu, or how severe the illnesses become?
Public health officials say it's not practical to literally count swine flu cases once the virus becomes widespread. Only a small percentage of flu cases would be recorded anyway, since most people don't get sick enough to be tested, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says on its Web site.
Instead, the CDC relies on reports every week on doctor visits, hospitalizations and deaths related to flu and pneumonia (a complication of flu). The reports don't distinguish between seasonal flu and swine flu. But the CDC says it uses lab reports from all 50 states to determine the percentage of circulating flu viruses that are H1N1.
During the week of Sept. 13-19, for instance, the CDC reports 2,326 positive cases of flu. Virtually all the flu samples that were tested for the subtype turned out to be H1N1.
The Ohio Department of Health, which feeds information to the CDC, says it will use the same methods to track swine flu as it has used in past years to track seasonal flu. Health-care providers are required to report to the state flu-related hospitalizations, pediatric deaths and outbreaks. The department also will rely on 71 "sentinel" outpatient providers to report flulike illnesses and submit samples to the state for flu testing. Public agencies also monitor emergency room visits, over-the-counter drug sales and pneumonia and flu deaths to determine the level of flu activity.
Asked if the CDC will estimate the total number of swine flu cases, state health officials said they didn't know. A CDC spokesperson did not respond to inquiries. The CDC referred questions about tracking H1N1 here.
In Cleveland, a new collaboration called the University Alliance on Infectious Diseases also may be tracking H1N1 through tests at various clinical sites serving the poor. The project out of Case Western Reserve University is still seeking university funding. It proposes to test thousands of blood samples for flu antibodies, said Dr. Frank Esper, an infectious-disease specialist at CWRU and Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital.
"By looking at blood, we may get a better understanding of how many people have come into contact with the infection," said Esper.
The project should help with planning for swine flu in the years to come, he said.
