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The silence is deafening.....

S

scottmcpherson

Resident
OK, we have gone weeks now without new, confirmed human cases of H5N1. Also, it appears to me that the rate of infection among poultry is also dropping.

So what do we think is going on? Is H5N1 "smouldering" again? I am curious to know if anyone else has any sense of what is happening. I may have bird flu ADD, but I am wondering if we are in some sort of transitional period here.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

I thought things were heating up in India? or is that conjecture only?

J.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

Smoldering is a good term. It is endemic in several countries but is no longer devastating chicken operations to the same degree it did a few months back. So what is going on? Have we dodged a bullet? In a word, no. Certainly huge chicken producers are getting the message about controlling cross contamination between chicken operations. The virus is also showing the ability to not always perform as HPAI but rather low path. No one worries too much about low path although it may indeed be the same beast humans are most concerned about. Ennui is playing a role as well. Since the pandemic didn't happen as quickly as some predictions stated it must therefore be a no-show. And finally, the virus shows some seasonality. Late spring and summer reduce the number of reported infections. Which although feels like we have a grace period of at least 4 months between high anticipation of a likely pandemic, should be countered with the realization that the last pandemic started during this same season.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

i just hope that if/when it does or may happen it doesnt creep up on us,and suprise all of us,i have let my guard down to be honest seeing as the news about it seems to have died down,i just hope im not making a mistake.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

Shannon said:
Smoldering is a good term. [snip] And finally, the virus shows some seasonality. Late spring and summer reduce the number of reported infections. Which although feels like we have a grace period of at least 4 months between high anticipation of a likely pandemic, should be countered with the realization that the last pandemic started during this same season.
Click to expand...

Seasonal flus in general peak in the winter, and the presence of avian flu in wild birds (in general) is highest following the recruitment of all of the immunologically naive young-of-the-year. Depending on the role that migratory birds ultimately play in H5N1 transmission and dispersal, this could be a part of the puzzle.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

To summarize the most recent H5N1 human cases--

The last three WHO confirmed cases were:

Egypt:
Fatima Farouk Ahmed Abdel Gawad (2F). Symptoms onsets on April 3rd, now recovered.

Cambodia:
Nha Pany (13F). Died April 5th.

Egypt:
Marianna Kameel Mikhail (15F). Died April 10th.
-----------------------------------------------------

The last two locally confirmed case from Indonesia:

Rizki Julianti (15F, Number 93). Died April 5th.

Suramto (29M, Number 94). Died April 5th.

-----------------------------------------------------

Shannon is correct that there is some slight seasonality to the distribution of human cases. Below is a graph of 291 WHO confirmed cases showing the month of occurrence (as best as can be determined). Shannon's point that that the first wave of the 1918 pandemic started in the spring time needs to be reiterated. We are not yet out of the woods for a pandemic this season.

Clipboard01.gif

If in fact we have a grace period of several months until the next flu season (and a potential pandemic), people should take advantage of the time to review and replenish their preps. Now would be a good time to start prepping if you haven't already.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

Has anyone seen Children of Men? Did you all catch the reference to the 2008 flu pandemic by Michael Caine's character? Thought that was really spooky, as did my family.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

Terrific movie, very moving. Yes, I caught the reference.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

has that film been released on DVD yet or is still in the cinemas,i would like to see that film.
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

I have started nibbling through our food preps.as in...gotta make that casserole today and the only tin of tomatoes is in the prep. pantry.Dang,reaching for that tin is easier than going to the store or having a major rethink on dinner.I have also set up an outdoor aviary with,what else,birds.
It may be a delusion,but I feel that a little relaxation is appropriate and that,if the worst happened,all you valuable flu-watching folk would alert me in time to bring the birds indoors. Am I wrong?:confused:
 
Re: The silence is deafening.....

Eating preps is not such a bad thing.

It helps with the rotation of food items.

Helps your family get used to the taste of preps. In a disaster familiar foods are a comfort.

Encourages people to learn how to use preps. 101 ways with a tin of beans.

It's all part of

Store what you eat. Eat what you store.
 
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