tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiology. 2010 Aug 27. [Epub ahead of print]
The Effective Reproduction Number of Pandemic Influenza: Prospective Estimation.
Cowling BJ, Lau MS, Ho LM, Chuang SK, Tsang T, Liu SH, Leung PY, Lo SV, Lau EH.
From the aInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; bDepartment of Health, Centre for Health Protection, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China; cHospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China; and dFood and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009.
METHODS: We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009.
RESULTS: Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications.
CONCLUSION: Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies.
PMID: 20805752 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20805752
The Effective Reproduction Number of Pandemic Influenza: Prospective Estimation.
Cowling BJ, Lau MS, Ho LM, Chuang SK, Tsang T, Liu SH, Leung PY, Lo SV, Lau EH.
From the aInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; bDepartment of Health, Centre for Health Protection, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China; cHospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China; and dFood and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009.
METHODS: We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009.
RESULTS: Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications.
CONCLUSION: Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies.
PMID: 20805752 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20805752