Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Swine flu: Contagious, but not particularly bad for economy
Tue, 14 Jul 2009 2:37p.m.
The contagious swine flu is not having a big macroeconomic impact, a Reserve Bank of New Zealand study suggests.
"Estimates based on the latest Ministry of Health information suggest a limited macroeconomic impact of swine flu on New Zealand,'' analysts Martin Fukac and Kirdan Lees said.
Following ministry projections of fewer than 200 deaths, the researchers estimated a baseline decline in production of 0.62 percent over the first year after outbreak.
Assuming 30 percent of the population got infected and developed symptoms, and if the sick people were off for about a week, this accounted for 897,600 lost working weeks, they said.
In a conservative case - factoring in school closures, tourism drop-off and large falls in consumption and investment - output was affected by 3.3 percent. In a severe outbreak, where 40 percent of the population is infected and two percent of those die, output would drop 8.15 percent.
The researchers cited earlier studies of the 1918 pandemic, which killed 650,000 people in the US. Most of the deaths happened in a single month, and while the human toll was great, it didn't really affect productionm, they said.
"The broad pattern of data from historical episodes does not support large impacts on output from outbreaks of influenza,'' they said.
Four district health boards in Northland and Auckland yesterday reported 120 people were hospitalised with flu-like symptoms, including from ordinary seasonal flu. That was not an unusually high number for this time of year, a board spokeswoman said.
Forty-one of those hospitalised had confirmed positive for swine flu. New Zealand's cumulative total of confirmed cases is 1779, up from 1555 on Friday.
Only a small proportion of people with flu symptoms are now being tested for swine flu, and health authorities are no longer releasing a tally of confirmed cases for each region.
http://www.3news.co.nz/News/Swine-f...rticleID/112493/Default.aspx?ArticleID=112493
Tue, 14 Jul 2009 2:37p.m.
The contagious swine flu is not having a big macroeconomic impact, a Reserve Bank of New Zealand study suggests.
"Estimates based on the latest Ministry of Health information suggest a limited macroeconomic impact of swine flu on New Zealand,'' analysts Martin Fukac and Kirdan Lees said.
Following ministry projections of fewer than 200 deaths, the researchers estimated a baseline decline in production of 0.62 percent over the first year after outbreak.
Assuming 30 percent of the population got infected and developed symptoms, and if the sick people were off for about a week, this accounted for 897,600 lost working weeks, they said.
In a conservative case - factoring in school closures, tourism drop-off and large falls in consumption and investment - output was affected by 3.3 percent. In a severe outbreak, where 40 percent of the population is infected and two percent of those die, output would drop 8.15 percent.
The researchers cited earlier studies of the 1918 pandemic, which killed 650,000 people in the US. Most of the deaths happened in a single month, and while the human toll was great, it didn't really affect productionm, they said.
"The broad pattern of data from historical episodes does not support large impacts on output from outbreaks of influenza,'' they said.
Four district health boards in Northland and Auckland yesterday reported 120 people were hospitalised with flu-like symptoms, including from ordinary seasonal flu. That was not an unusually high number for this time of year, a board spokeswoman said.
Forty-one of those hospitalised had confirmed positive for swine flu. New Zealand's cumulative total of confirmed cases is 1779, up from 1555 on Friday.
Only a small proportion of people with flu symptoms are now being tested for swine flu, and health authorities are no longer releasing a tally of confirmed cases for each region.
http://www.3news.co.nz/News/Swine-f...rticleID/112493/Default.aspx?ArticleID=112493