tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Theor Biol. 2011 Dec 23. [Epub ahead of print]
Spatial dynamics of airborne infectious diseases.
Robinson M, Stilianakis NI, Drossinos Y.
Source
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
Abstract
Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets provide a vector for the spatial spread of infection with droplet transport determined by diffusive and convective processes. An epidemiological model describing the spatial dynamics of disease transmission is presented. The effects of an ambient airflow, as an infection control, are incorporated leading to a delay equation, with droplet density dependent on the infectious density at a previous time. It is found that small droplets (∼0.4μm) generate a negligible infectious force due to the small viral load and the associated duration they require to transmit infection. In contrast, larger droplets (∼4μm) can lead to an infectious wave propagating through a fully susceptible population or a secondary infection outbreak for alocalized susceptible population. Droplet diffusion is found to be an inefficient mode of droplet transport leading to minimal spatial spread of infection. A threshold air velocity is derived, above which disease transmission is impaired even when the basic reproduction number R(0) exceeds unity.
Copyright ? 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
PMID:
22207025
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22207025
Spatial dynamics of airborne infectious diseases.
Robinson M, Stilianakis NI, Drossinos Y.
Source
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
Abstract
Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets provide a vector for the spatial spread of infection with droplet transport determined by diffusive and convective processes. An epidemiological model describing the spatial dynamics of disease transmission is presented. The effects of an ambient airflow, as an infection control, are incorporated leading to a delay equation, with droplet density dependent on the infectious density at a previous time. It is found that small droplets (∼0.4μm) generate a negligible infectious force due to the small viral load and the associated duration they require to transmit infection. In contrast, larger droplets (∼4μm) can lead to an infectious wave propagating through a fully susceptible population or a secondary infection outbreak for alocalized susceptible population. Droplet diffusion is found to be an inefficient mode of droplet transport leading to minimal spatial spread of infection. A threshold air velocity is derived, above which disease transmission is impaired even when the basic reproduction number R(0) exceeds unity.
Copyright ? 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
PMID:
22207025
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22207025