JimO
Well-known member
After digging into my older spreadsheets, I made some interesting observations.
Based on data collected during the 2009-10 season and this season, it appears that at least seven states, where data has been consistently reported, are reporting more flu deaths this season through Week 2 than during all of the 2009-10 season. These include AR, ID, IN, KY, MN, MO, ND, and OK. Trends suggest that the same might be seen in CA, NC, and WA, among others.
FluTrackers identified 3,456 deaths in the U.S. during the 2009-10 season. To date, we have identified 988 deaths this season. About half of the states that currently do not report adult flu deaths, but did so during the 2009-10 season, reported significant numbers of deaths during the Pandemic. These include: AZ, FL, IL, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, and TX; where approximately 35% of the reported deaths occurred in 2009-10. Thus, the total this season is likely well under-estimated as compared with 2009-10. In fact, current trends suggest that there might be more reported deaths this season than in 2009-10, even absent reliable reports from some of the largest states. With all of the attention given the 2009-10 "Pandemic", this season might be worse both in the U.S. and globally. In addition, where reported, all three strains are resulting in fatalities of all ages, but most infections and fatalities are currently attributable to H3N2. However, the number of Influenza B infections is increasing even as H3N2 is peaking, so we might see a more protracted overall peak or even a double peak in the coming weeks from at least two equally deadly strains.
Given that deaths lag infections and hospitalizations, I expect that we haven't seen the peak in the numbers of deaths and probably won't until next month. Although the demographics might be a bit different when compared with 2009-10, this could still be a far more tragic season where many children and healthy younger people become seriously ill or die.
With all this, we aren't seeing nearly enough preventative action, with many ERs being overwhelmed and apparently unprepared for numbers of cases. Our level of prevention and preparedness seems no better than in 2008. It's like the Pandemic never happened, or else many learned nothing from it.
Based on data collected during the 2009-10 season and this season, it appears that at least seven states, where data has been consistently reported, are reporting more flu deaths this season through Week 2 than during all of the 2009-10 season. These include AR, ID, IN, KY, MN, MO, ND, and OK. Trends suggest that the same might be seen in CA, NC, and WA, among others.
FluTrackers identified 3,456 deaths in the U.S. during the 2009-10 season. To date, we have identified 988 deaths this season. About half of the states that currently do not report adult flu deaths, but did so during the 2009-10 season, reported significant numbers of deaths during the Pandemic. These include: AZ, FL, IL, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, and TX; where approximately 35% of the reported deaths occurred in 2009-10. Thus, the total this season is likely well under-estimated as compared with 2009-10. In fact, current trends suggest that there might be more reported deaths this season than in 2009-10, even absent reliable reports from some of the largest states. With all of the attention given the 2009-10 "Pandemic", this season might be worse both in the U.S. and globally. In addition, where reported, all three strains are resulting in fatalities of all ages, but most infections and fatalities are currently attributable to H3N2. However, the number of Influenza B infections is increasing even as H3N2 is peaking, so we might see a more protracted overall peak or even a double peak in the coming weeks from at least two equally deadly strains.
Given that deaths lag infections and hospitalizations, I expect that we haven't seen the peak in the numbers of deaths and probably won't until next month. Although the demographics might be a bit different when compared with 2009-10, this could still be a far more tragic season where many children and healthy younger people become seriously ill or die.
With all this, we aren't seeing nearly enough preventative action, with many ERs being overwhelmed and apparently unprepared for numbers of cases. Our level of prevention and preparedness seems no better than in 2008. It's like the Pandemic never happened, or else many learned nothing from it.