Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?

[Emily]

https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/8/1259/2008/
Molchanov, O.: Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1259–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1259-2008, 2008.

24 Nov 2008
Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?

O. Molchanov

• Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Acad. of Sci., Bolshaya Gruzinskaya 10, 123995, Moscow D-242, Russia

Abstract. Using case study of earthquake (EQ) activity and war conflicts in Caucasus during 1975–2002 time interval and correlation analysis of global distribution of damaging EQs and war-related social tension during 1901–2005 period we conclude:

• There is a statistically reliable increase of social tension several years (or several months in case study) before damaging EQs,
• There is evident decrease of social tension several years after damaging EQs, probably due to society consolidation,
• Preseismic effect is absent for the large EQs in unpopulated areas,
• There is some factual background for legendary belief in Almighty retribution for social abnormal behavior.

 

[Emily]

https://www.al-monitor.com/original...tants-halt-operations-after-turkey-earthquake
Kurdish militants halt 'operations' after Turkey earthquake

by Dmitry ZAKS

February 10, 2023 — Istanbul (AFP)
Kurdish militants from the outlawed PKK group announced a temporary halt in fighting to ease recovery work in the wake of a massive earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and parts of Syria.
...

But Monday's earthquake has the potential to reshape the political landscape while claiming nearly 23,000 lives -- more than 19,000 of them in Turkey.

It struck a multi-ethnic region that has witnessed some of the heaviest fighting between Turkish government forces and the PKK.

The group's co-leader Cemil Bayik told the PKK-linked ANF news agency that "thousands of our people are under the rubble" and urged a focus on recovery work rather than waging war.

"We call on all our forces engaged in military actions: stop the military actions in Turkey, in metropolises and cities," he said in comments published on the site late Thursday.

Bayik said the pause in fighting would stay in place "until the pain of our people is relieved and their wounds are healed".

"Of course, the attitude of the Turkish state will also be decisive in our decision," he added.

- Olive branch? -

Turkish officials did not respond to Bayik's comments.

"It remains unclear whether Ankara will capitalise on the announcement to push for de-escalation," said the Crisis Group's senior Turkey analyst Berkay Mandiraci.