Pathfinder
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From The Times September 18, 2009
Sir Liam Donaldson says second wave of swine flu may be on its way David Rose, Health Correspondent
The number of cases of swine flu have doubled in parts of Britain leading to fears that the second big wave may be on its way, the Chief Medical Officer said yesterday.
An estimated 5,200 people in England went down with the virus last week, compared with about 3,000 the previous week after a lull in cases over the summer. Schoolchildren were mainly affected.
The number of deaths linked to the virus also rose to reach 79 fatal cases in Britain and 143 people in England are being treated in hospital, 23 of whom are critically ill. Although experts have been predicting a resurgence of swine flu, Sir Liam Donaldson, the Government’s Chief Medical Officer, admitted yesterday that officials had hoped for a “bit more breathing space before it started again”.
He said: “We don’t know whether this is the start of the next big wave that we were expecting this autumn, but it is certainly something that is giving us concern.”
He said that it would be a week or two before it became clear whether a fresh surge was under way, but that cases were not expected to peak before next month, when a national vaccination campaign is due to start. He added that two more isolated cases had appeared in Britain of viruses that were resistant to the anti-viral drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir), but he said that resistant strains were not spreading in the community and there had been no other mutations of the virus.
In Scotland, the estimated number of cases nearly doubled last week to more than 6,000, although in Wales and Northern Ireland the figures were much lower. Earlier this month Britain lowered the potential number of deaths from swine flu in the worst case to 19,000 from 65,000. The number of cases has dropped dramatically in the past two months.
Last week’s figures are the first increase since the end of July, when the number of cases peaked at 110,000 a week. The rise comes a week after Sir Liam predicted that Britain was “tantalisingly close” to winning the battle against the virus, mainly because of the existence of a swine flu vaccine.
A school in Carlisle, another in the North East and two each in South Yorkshire and London have reported levels of sickness and absences attributed to swine flu, although cases have not been confirmed in a laboratory. A further eight schools in Scotland have also reported high levels of illness.
Sir Liam insisted that there was no point in closing schools that had potential outbreaks because of the extent to which the virus was already circulating in the community. He added: “We don’t know whether [the increase in cases] will be sustained but I think it is one of the few straws in the wind that we might be seeing an upturn.
“We would have hoped for a bit more breathing space before it started again but this is still consistent with scientific predictions for another peak before mid-October.”
More than 1.3 million people have so far been assessed over the telephone or internet via the National Pandemic Flu Service for England, with 522,890 people collecting antiviral drugs, he said. The Government is waiting for European regulators to license the swine flu vaccine before giving it to health workers and other groups at particular risk across Britain.
This week a deal was agreed with GPs to deliver the vaccine to more than 13 million of those people, with the first doses due next month. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish Health Secretary, said that a woman from the Lothian area had become the ninth person to die after contracting swine flu in Scotland, while one other death was reported in England.
Justin McCracken, chief executive of the Health Protection Agency, said that schools were unlikely to close. “We would not expect schools to close as long as it is still possible to operate them. Now the virus is out there in the community, we do not think [closures] would mean any significant delay in the spread of the virus.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/Swine_flu/article6839207.ece
Sir Liam Donaldson says second wave of swine flu may be on its way David Rose, Health Correspondent
The number of cases of swine flu have doubled in parts of Britain leading to fears that the second big wave may be on its way, the Chief Medical Officer said yesterday.
An estimated 5,200 people in England went down with the virus last week, compared with about 3,000 the previous week after a lull in cases over the summer. Schoolchildren were mainly affected.
The number of deaths linked to the virus also rose to reach 79 fatal cases in Britain and 143 people in England are being treated in hospital, 23 of whom are critically ill. Although experts have been predicting a resurgence of swine flu, Sir Liam Donaldson, the Government’s Chief Medical Officer, admitted yesterday that officials had hoped for a “bit more breathing space before it started again”.
He said: “We don’t know whether this is the start of the next big wave that we were expecting this autumn, but it is certainly something that is giving us concern.”
He said that it would be a week or two before it became clear whether a fresh surge was under way, but that cases were not expected to peak before next month, when a national vaccination campaign is due to start. He added that two more isolated cases had appeared in Britain of viruses that were resistant to the anti-viral drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir), but he said that resistant strains were not spreading in the community and there had been no other mutations of the virus.
In Scotland, the estimated number of cases nearly doubled last week to more than 6,000, although in Wales and Northern Ireland the figures were much lower. Earlier this month Britain lowered the potential number of deaths from swine flu in the worst case to 19,000 from 65,000. The number of cases has dropped dramatically in the past two months.
Last week’s figures are the first increase since the end of July, when the number of cases peaked at 110,000 a week. The rise comes a week after Sir Liam predicted that Britain was “tantalisingly close” to winning the battle against the virus, mainly because of the existence of a swine flu vaccine.
A school in Carlisle, another in the North East and two each in South Yorkshire and London have reported levels of sickness and absences attributed to swine flu, although cases have not been confirmed in a laboratory. A further eight schools in Scotland have also reported high levels of illness.
Sir Liam insisted that there was no point in closing schools that had potential outbreaks because of the extent to which the virus was already circulating in the community. He added: “We don’t know whether [the increase in cases] will be sustained but I think it is one of the few straws in the wind that we might be seeing an upturn.
“We would have hoped for a bit more breathing space before it started again but this is still consistent with scientific predictions for another peak before mid-October.”
More than 1.3 million people have so far been assessed over the telephone or internet via the National Pandemic Flu Service for England, with 522,890 people collecting antiviral drugs, he said. The Government is waiting for European regulators to license the swine flu vaccine before giving it to health workers and other groups at particular risk across Britain.
This week a deal was agreed with GPs to deliver the vaccine to more than 13 million of those people, with the first doses due next month. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish Health Secretary, said that a woman from the Lothian area had become the ninth person to die after contracting swine flu in Scotland, while one other death was reported in England.
Justin McCracken, chief executive of the Health Protection Agency, said that schools were unlikely to close. “We would not expect schools to close as long as it is still possible to operate them. Now the virus is out there in the community, we do not think [closures] would mean any significant delay in the spread of the virus.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/Swine_flu/article6839207.ece