Seven deaths per day next month?

[FrenchieGirl]

[Google Translation]

Seven deaths per day next month?

Published: Today 19:47

In Belgium will end next month, by day six or seven people to death the Mexican flu and 15,000 people are daily infected with the virus. This prediction was virologists Marc Van Ranst Saturday for the Flemish public broadcaster VRT. He base itself on British figures.

At this moment, in Belgium 51 people infected with the Mexican flu. Van Ranst, professor in Leuven and flu expert from the Belgian government, thinks the number of new cases will soon rise because many people during their holidays abroad in contact with the virus.

He is soon impossible to anyone who gets infected, too, treatment with antiviral agents. Only patients who really need these medicines still used to get. The rest just uitzieken, as with an ordinary flu. In die each year some 1500 Belgians to ordinary flu, or four per day.

 

[Commonground]

Re: Seven deaths per day next month?

That is the second quote, saying "twice as many as seasonal influenza".
From above article:

Title: Seven deaths per day next month?
In die each year some 1500 Belgians to ordinary flu, or four per day.

From a previous article out of Australia:
Posted: 02 July 2009

Professor Robert Booy, an immunisation specialist at the Westmead Children's Hospital in Sydney, said the H1N1 flu was likely to kill twice as many children over the next 12 months as regular influenza.

Booy estimated 10 to 12 children could die from the virus, compared with five or six from regular influenza in a typical year, and said not all of those killed would have underlying medical conditions.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/439910/1/.html

 

[JimO]

Re: Seven deaths per day next month?

I'm glad to see more countries breaking rank with the status quo and raising the level of concern.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Seven deaths per day next month?

[Google Translation]

Seven deaths per day next month?

Published: Today 19:47

In Belgium will end next month, by day six or seven people to death the Mexican flu and 15,000 people are daily infected with the virus. This prediction was virologists Marc Van Ranst Saturday for the Flemish public broadcaster VRT. He base itself on British figures.

At this moment, in Belgium 51 people infected with the Mexican flu. Van Ranst, professor in Leuven and flu expert from the Belgian government, thinks the number of new cases will soon rise because many people during their holidays abroad in contact with the virus.

He is soon impossible to anyone who gets infected, too, treatment with antiviral agents. Only patients who really need these medicines still used to get. The rest just uitzieken, as with an ordinary flu. In die each year some 1500 Belgians to ordinary flu, or four per day.

Less than 1 x 1,000 cases?

When speaking about critical informations for the public, ''experts'' must cite their sources.

The risk is that public cannot trust longer for the words of ''experts'' and start to behave irrationally.

If an estimate is done, it is needed a complete disclosure of data.

The most recent EuroSurveillance paper about case-fatality rate estimate is here:

The emerging influenza pandemic: estimating the case fatality ratio

Euro Surveill. 2009;14(26)ii=19255.

Available online: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19255

Date of submission: 24 June 2009

Summary:

To determine appropriate influenza pandemic containment and mitigation measures, health authorities need to know the approximate case fatality ratio (CFR) for this new infection. We present four different methods for very provisionally estimating the plausible range of the CFR for symptomatic infection by this pandemic strain in developed countries. All of the methods produce substantially lower values (range 0.06% to 0.0004%) than a previously published estimate for Mexico (0.4%). As these results have many limitations, improved surveillance and serological surveys are needed in both developed and developing countries to produce more accurate estimates.

 

[tropical]

Re: Seven deaths per day next month?

#1:
"In Belgium will end next month, by day six or seven people to death the Mexican flu and 15,000 people are daily infected with the virus. This prediction was virologists Marc Van Ranst Saturday for the Flemish public broadcaster VRT. He base itself on British figures."


If the number of belgium citizens is ~ 10.500.000

1% = 105.000
0,1% = 10.500

15.000 ~ 0,15%

If we take that 10.500 people will be daily infected by the virus in belgium the next month, it will be only a ~ 0,15% of all citizens daily ->
-> 1 months ~ 30 days < 5% of overall Belgium citizens infected.

Now, the above is an fairly low infection percent number for an pandemic chimera virus - and it produced the prediction of 15.000 infected daily, so it is quite real.

1% of the supposed daily infections (15.000) are 150.

0,1% are 15, and

0.05% are 7 cases, daily.

So, 7 victims a day, represents an 0,05%CFR, so it is an real probability,
when it is supposed the seasonal influenza numbers of victims.

Such chimerized pandemic was supposed to have 0,5-1,xCFR, when disseminated throughout.
0,5% = 70 victims daily, but we can argue that this pandemic wave will last at least 3 months in an afected country, so the overall CFR of 0,5-1,x must be divided per 3x30=90 than ..., and if we augment the overall infections rates to double, than ...

So, the numbers given by the professor could pop out to be less, or more estimated.
But because it is an expert in the field, thus his probabilities estimates also, I should tend to believe such projections.

The real panic makers are the officials which downplay the danger of such pandemic chimera flu.

Finaly, the professor take part at top levels enaugh to back up real projections;

http://www.euro.who.int/Document/SEE/SEE_5th_Reg_Wshop_Sofia.pdf

http://www.kuleuven.ac.be/aidslab/ws2002/program.htm

http://www.rega.kuleuven.be/cev/fil...irus_Evolution_and_Molecular_Epidemiology.pdf