tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Rep
. 2020 Oct 6;10(1):16642.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-73777-8.
The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age
Ryosuke Omori[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ryota Matsuyama[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yukihiko Nakata[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R[SUB]0[/SUB]). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.
. 2020 Oct 6;10(1):16642.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-73777-8.
The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age
Ryosuke Omori[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ryota Matsuyama[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yukihiko Nakata[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33024235
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-73777-8
Abstract
Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R[SUB]0[/SUB]). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.