tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Rep
. 2022 Sep 5;12(1):15073.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9.
Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia
Bernat Joseph-Duran[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Albert Serra-Compte[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Miquel Sàrrias[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Susana Gonzalez[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Daniel López[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Clara Prats[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Martí Català[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Enric Alvarez-Lacalle[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sergio Alonso[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Marina Arnaldos[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.
. 2022 Sep 5;12(1):15073.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9.
Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia
Bernat Joseph-Duran[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Albert Serra-Compte[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Miquel Sàrrias[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Susana Gonzalez[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Daniel López[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Clara Prats[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Martí Català[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Enric Alvarez-Lacalle[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sergio Alonso[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Marina Arnaldos[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36064874
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9
Abstract
While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.