Snowy Owl
Retired in 2010, In Memoriam
Sample Letter - Water Supply
A sample letter to the department or business who are responsible for the water supply
Dear {person?s name},
Attached are three articles. One is a ?primer? about pandemic flu. The second is about the difference between common flu, bird flu and pandemic flu. The third is a spreadsheet showing what a pandemic wave might look like here.
As we discussed by phone, I am concerned about the City?s level of preparedness for the bird flu pandemic which experts predict is likely to begin within the next five years, possibly as soon as in 2006 or 2007.
There are many issues facing cities which are unlikely to be addressed by the public health plan, which is why I?d like to bring it to the council?s attention.
THE REST NEEDS MORE WORK, INCLUDING SPECIFIC RECOMENDATIONS FROM Consequences.WaterSupply
Currently, H5N1 ?bird flu? has infected 108 people worldwide and killed 54 of them since the beginning of 2004. Flu cases in 2004 all resulted from close contact with infected poultry, without verified transmission between humans. In 2005, mortality from the bird flu in humans dropped from around 67% to a current level of 34%, but several instances of human-human transmission within families occured, indicating that the virus is evolving in the direction of becoming a pandemic strain?a strain that causes illness in humans, is new to humanity such that no one is immune to it, and can transmit easily between humans. To give you a basis for comparison, the black death in Europe killed roughly 33% of those infected, and the Spanish Flu killed somewhere from 0.5% to 15%, depending on who you quote.
Most experts expect (or hope) that when this flu acquires the ability to transmit between humans, the mortality will be much lower than its current rate, and most of the models in use are guessing something slightly less fatal than the Spanish Flu of 1918. But even if the mortality rate were 0%, because no one has immunity to this virus, experts expect that in areas of outbreak, worker absences will range from 15?35%, with 30% being the figure most commonly quoted. This rate of absenteeism would be expected to last 1?2 months, happening episodically over a 1 to 3 year period.
This will result in significant economic disruption as businesses are unable to function at their normal levels. Not only will areas of outbreak be affected, but businesses up and down the supply chain who depend on those regions. An outbreak in Fresno could stop the supply of raisins and grapes; an outbreak in Oakland could stop the unloading of goods from ships at that port. {adjust examples to your region}
I understand that the city is not in the business of determining public health policy, but there are impacts of this situation that the city can mitigate to some degree. For example, what would be the impact on the city and its finances if a quarantine were called, and the {mall} had to close for two months? What if the {Festival name} had to be cancelled for three years in a row? What would happen to city services if they had to function with 1/3 of the staff out sick? Would the water stay on? The lights? The garbage service? How would the city conduct council meetings if public assemblies must be discouraged?is there some teleconferencing technology that could allow ordinary functions of government to continue by remote? What supplies does the city consume, and which would continue to be consumed during an outbreak? Does the city have enough to continue functioning if the supply chain for those items is disrupted for a month or two at random intervals?
Planning for this issue is sort of like having fire insurance?the likelyhood that you will ever need to use it is not very high, but the cost of neglecting it could be catastrophic.
I hope that these thoughts are both interesting and useful to the council.
Thank you,
{your name}
{Town} homeowner and voter since {year}
http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.LetterToWaterSupplyPeople
A sample letter to the department or business who are responsible for the water supply
Dear {person?s name},
Attached are three articles. One is a ?primer? about pandemic flu. The second is about the difference between common flu, bird flu and pandemic flu. The third is a spreadsheet showing what a pandemic wave might look like here.
As we discussed by phone, I am concerned about the City?s level of preparedness for the bird flu pandemic which experts predict is likely to begin within the next five years, possibly as soon as in 2006 or 2007.
There are many issues facing cities which are unlikely to be addressed by the public health plan, which is why I?d like to bring it to the council?s attention.
THE REST NEEDS MORE WORK, INCLUDING SPECIFIC RECOMENDATIONS FROM Consequences.WaterSupply
Currently, H5N1 ?bird flu? has infected 108 people worldwide and killed 54 of them since the beginning of 2004. Flu cases in 2004 all resulted from close contact with infected poultry, without verified transmission between humans. In 2005, mortality from the bird flu in humans dropped from around 67% to a current level of 34%, but several instances of human-human transmission within families occured, indicating that the virus is evolving in the direction of becoming a pandemic strain?a strain that causes illness in humans, is new to humanity such that no one is immune to it, and can transmit easily between humans. To give you a basis for comparison, the black death in Europe killed roughly 33% of those infected, and the Spanish Flu killed somewhere from 0.5% to 15%, depending on who you quote.
Most experts expect (or hope) that when this flu acquires the ability to transmit between humans, the mortality will be much lower than its current rate, and most of the models in use are guessing something slightly less fatal than the Spanish Flu of 1918. But even if the mortality rate were 0%, because no one has immunity to this virus, experts expect that in areas of outbreak, worker absences will range from 15?35%, with 30% being the figure most commonly quoted. This rate of absenteeism would be expected to last 1?2 months, happening episodically over a 1 to 3 year period.
This will result in significant economic disruption as businesses are unable to function at their normal levels. Not only will areas of outbreak be affected, but businesses up and down the supply chain who depend on those regions. An outbreak in Fresno could stop the supply of raisins and grapes; an outbreak in Oakland could stop the unloading of goods from ships at that port. {adjust examples to your region}
I understand that the city is not in the business of determining public health policy, but there are impacts of this situation that the city can mitigate to some degree. For example, what would be the impact on the city and its finances if a quarantine were called, and the {mall} had to close for two months? What if the {Festival name} had to be cancelled for three years in a row? What would happen to city services if they had to function with 1/3 of the staff out sick? Would the water stay on? The lights? The garbage service? How would the city conduct council meetings if public assemblies must be discouraged?is there some teleconferencing technology that could allow ordinary functions of government to continue by remote? What supplies does the city consume, and which would continue to be consumed during an outbreak? Does the city have enough to continue functioning if the supply chain for those items is disrupted for a month or two at random intervals?
Planning for this issue is sort of like having fire insurance?the likelyhood that you will ever need to use it is not very high, but the cost of neglecting it could be catastrophic.
I hope that these thoughts are both interesting and useful to the council.
Thank you,
{your name}
{Town} homeowner and voter since {year}
http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.LetterToWaterSupplyPeople