Mary Wilson
Well-known member
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
15 Feb 2021
Summary
Several EU/EEA countries have observed a decline in the overall incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in recent weeks, most probably due to the impact of tightened non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Nonetheless, the epidemiological situation is still of serious concern across the EU/EEA, with the majority of countries still experiencing high or increasing notification rates in older age groups and/or high death rates. Although vaccine rollout has started in all EU/EEA countries, targeting priority groups based on their risk of developing severe disease (the elderly and residents in long-term care facilities) as well as healthcare and other front-line workers, it is still too early to detect an impact on COVID-19 mortality or hospitalisations.
While most countries are currently seeing a decline in overall infections as a response to NPIs, the introduction and increased spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants first identified in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (P.1) has raised concerns. As suggested by recent anti-lockdown protests and civil disturbances in some European cities, pandemic fatigue could adversely affect the continued acceptance of and compliance with NPIs by the population.
Since 21 January 2021, EU/EEA countries have observed a substantial increase in the number and proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant, first reported in the United Kingdom. Ireland reports B.1.1.7 to be the dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain and, based on growth trajectories observed, several other countries are expecting a similar situation in the coming weeks. The variant B.1.351 has also been increasingly reported in EU/EEA countries, often, but not only, linked to travel, and it has also been associated with outbreaks. The variant P.1 is so far being reported at lower levels, possibly because it is mainly linked to travel exchange with Brazil, where it appears to be spreading.
The B.1.1.7 variant appears to be more transmissible than the previously predominant circulating strains and may cause more severe infection. Several countries where the variant has become dominant have seen rapid increases in incidence. This has resulted in increased hospitalisations, overstretched health systems and excess mortality. B.1.351 is also associated with increased transmissibility. In addition, there is evidence pointing to the potential for reduced effectiveness for some of the COVID-19 vaccines with this variant.
Risk assessed in this update
Due to the increased transmissibility, the evidence of increased severity and the potential for the existing licensed COVID-19 vaccines to be partially or significantly less effective against a variant of concern (VOC), combined with the high probability that the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases due to B.1.1.7 (and possibly also B.1.351 and P.1) will increase, the risk associated with further spread of the SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in the EU/EEA is currently assessed as high to very high for the overall population and very high for vulnerable individuals.
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https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-covid-19-14th-update-15-feb-2021.pdf
15 Feb 2021
Summary
Several EU/EEA countries have observed a decline in the overall incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in recent weeks, most probably due to the impact of tightened non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Nonetheless, the epidemiological situation is still of serious concern across the EU/EEA, with the majority of countries still experiencing high or increasing notification rates in older age groups and/or high death rates. Although vaccine rollout has started in all EU/EEA countries, targeting priority groups based on their risk of developing severe disease (the elderly and residents in long-term care facilities) as well as healthcare and other front-line workers, it is still too early to detect an impact on COVID-19 mortality or hospitalisations.
While most countries are currently seeing a decline in overall infections as a response to NPIs, the introduction and increased spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants first identified in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (P.1) has raised concerns. As suggested by recent anti-lockdown protests and civil disturbances in some European cities, pandemic fatigue could adversely affect the continued acceptance of and compliance with NPIs by the population.
Since 21 January 2021, EU/EEA countries have observed a substantial increase in the number and proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant, first reported in the United Kingdom. Ireland reports B.1.1.7 to be the dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain and, based on growth trajectories observed, several other countries are expecting a similar situation in the coming weeks. The variant B.1.351 has also been increasingly reported in EU/EEA countries, often, but not only, linked to travel, and it has also been associated with outbreaks. The variant P.1 is so far being reported at lower levels, possibly because it is mainly linked to travel exchange with Brazil, where it appears to be spreading.
The B.1.1.7 variant appears to be more transmissible than the previously predominant circulating strains and may cause more severe infection. Several countries where the variant has become dominant have seen rapid increases in incidence. This has resulted in increased hospitalisations, overstretched health systems and excess mortality. B.1.351 is also associated with increased transmissibility. In addition, there is evidence pointing to the potential for reduced effectiveness for some of the COVID-19 vaccines with this variant.
Risk assessed in this update
Due to the increased transmissibility, the evidence of increased severity and the potential for the existing licensed COVID-19 vaccines to be partially or significantly less effective against a variant of concern (VOC), combined with the high probability that the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases due to B.1.1.7 (and possibly also B.1.351 and P.1) will increase, the risk associated with further spread of the SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in the EU/EEA is currently assessed as high to very high for the overall population and very high for vulnerable individuals.
...
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-covid-19-14th-update-15-feb-2021.pdf
