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Readiness key to survival if flu pandemic occurs
Health officials estimate that a full-blown flu pandemic could result in as many as 45,000 cases in Pueblo County.
By MARGIE WOOD
THE PUEBLO CHIEFTAIN
Personal preparedness will be a big part of surviving a possible flu pandemic, Dr. Chris Nevin-Woods of the City-County Health Department told a group of community representatives at a breakfast meeting Friday.
The health department has been planning for a pandemic for several months, in meetings with other government agencies and medical providers. There will be a tabletop exercise in coming months, and the department plans a mass flu vaccine clinic to provide shots to 10,000 people on Dec. 2.
Although there isn't a vaccine yet for the avian flu that is considered the most likely candidate to become a pandemic, Nevin-Woods said ordinary flu shots may confer some protection against the bird flu. In the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, she noted, more young people died than older people, and scientists speculate that the reason might be that older people had survived more unrelated infections and developed more immunities.
If a pandemic comes to Pueblo, she said, people ideally should be prepared to stay in their own homes for two to three weeks. Public health officials might have to close schools and public gathering places, and that could include the mall and even grocery stores.
"So you would think you'd need food, but you also need to think about having enough dog food, toilet paper, things for the family to do if they can't leave the house, and preparation to take care of yourself if you get sick or hurt," she said.
"How many of us would know what to do if your child fell and broke his arm? Could you splint it if you couldn't get to the doctor for two or three days?"
The health department has a grant to make a video to help with individual and community preparedness, and it will be shared with other health departments across the state, she said.
She also hopes to organize a medical reserve corps of trained volunteers who could help with disease prevention efforts as well as response to medical emergencies.
Other planning groups will be set up to think through issues in new ways.
"The hardest part of the mindset changes we need is how to deal with everything ourselves, in our own community," Nevin-Woods said. "There would be some tough decisions, for example, when we can't send the sickest children to Denver like we do now - if you have 70 children who need to be on respirators and there are only four or five in town."
The federal department of Health and Human Services is setting up state summits on pandemic planning, and the Colorado summit will be March 24 in Denver.
To this point, there is no federal planning money, but Nevin-Woods said she understands there will be at least some federal funding.
Following the course of bird flu across Asia and into Europe, Nevin-Woods said it now appears infected birds might reach Alaska in April or May and the continental United States in the fall.
"We need to let people know that you're not likely to be exposed unless you're actually handling birds, slaughtering them and being exposed to the blood," she said. There is no evidence yet that the virus has mutated to the point that it can easily spread from human to human. That would be the critical point signaling a pandemic.
If a pandemic does strike, Nevin-Woods said, "The assumption is that 30 percent of the population would become ill. That would be 45,000 people in Pueblo County, and it could mean 22,000 clinic visits, 4,500 hospital admissions including 720 intensive-care cases and 360 people needing ventilators - and 960 deaths."
http://www.chieftain.com/metro/1142161087/5
Health officials estimate that a full-blown flu pandemic could result in as many as 45,000 cases in Pueblo County.
By MARGIE WOOD
THE PUEBLO CHIEFTAIN
Personal preparedness will be a big part of surviving a possible flu pandemic, Dr. Chris Nevin-Woods of the City-County Health Department told a group of community representatives at a breakfast meeting Friday.
The health department has been planning for a pandemic for several months, in meetings with other government agencies and medical providers. There will be a tabletop exercise in coming months, and the department plans a mass flu vaccine clinic to provide shots to 10,000 people on Dec. 2.
Although there isn't a vaccine yet for the avian flu that is considered the most likely candidate to become a pandemic, Nevin-Woods said ordinary flu shots may confer some protection against the bird flu. In the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, she noted, more young people died than older people, and scientists speculate that the reason might be that older people had survived more unrelated infections and developed more immunities.
If a pandemic comes to Pueblo, she said, people ideally should be prepared to stay in their own homes for two to three weeks. Public health officials might have to close schools and public gathering places, and that could include the mall and even grocery stores.
"So you would think you'd need food, but you also need to think about having enough dog food, toilet paper, things for the family to do if they can't leave the house, and preparation to take care of yourself if you get sick or hurt," she said.
"How many of us would know what to do if your child fell and broke his arm? Could you splint it if you couldn't get to the doctor for two or three days?"
The health department has a grant to make a video to help with individual and community preparedness, and it will be shared with other health departments across the state, she said.
She also hopes to organize a medical reserve corps of trained volunteers who could help with disease prevention efforts as well as response to medical emergencies.
Other planning groups will be set up to think through issues in new ways.
"The hardest part of the mindset changes we need is how to deal with everything ourselves, in our own community," Nevin-Woods said. "There would be some tough decisions, for example, when we can't send the sickest children to Denver like we do now - if you have 70 children who need to be on respirators and there are only four or five in town."
The federal department of Health and Human Services is setting up state summits on pandemic planning, and the Colorado summit will be March 24 in Denver.
To this point, there is no federal planning money, but Nevin-Woods said she understands there will be at least some federal funding.
Following the course of bird flu across Asia and into Europe, Nevin-Woods said it now appears infected birds might reach Alaska in April or May and the continental United States in the fall.
"We need to let people know that you're not likely to be exposed unless you're actually handling birds, slaughtering them and being exposed to the blood," she said. There is no evidence yet that the virus has mutated to the point that it can easily spread from human to human. That would be the critical point signaling a pandemic.
If a pandemic does strike, Nevin-Woods said, "The assumption is that 30 percent of the population would become ill. That would be 45,000 people in Pueblo County, and it could mean 22,000 clinic visits, 4,500 hospital admissions including 720 intensive-care cases and 360 people needing ventilators - and 960 deaths."
http://www.chieftain.com/metro/1142161087/5