tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
. 2021 Jan 26;118(4):e2019617118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2019617118.
Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown
Valentina Marziano[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Giorgio Guzzetta[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bruna Maria Rondinone[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Fabio Boccuni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Flavia Riccardo[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Antonino Bella[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Piero Poletti[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Filippo Trentini[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Patrizio Pezzotti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Silvio Brusaferro[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Giovanni Rezza[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sergio Iavicoli[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Marco Ajelli[SUP] 4 5 [/SUP], Stefano Merler[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
After the national lockdown imposed on March 11, 2020, the Italian government has gradually resumed the suspended economic and social activities since May 4, while maintaining the closure of schools until September 14. We use a model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission to estimate the health impact of different exit strategies. The strategy adopted in Italy kept the reproduction number R[SUB]t[/SUB] at values close to one until the end of September, with marginal regional differences. Based on the estimated postlockdown transmissibility, reopening of workplaces in selected industrial activities might have had a minor impact on the transmissibility. Reopening educational levels in May up to secondary schools might have influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility only marginally; however, including high schools might have resulted in a marked increase of the disease burden. Earlier reopening would have resulted in disproportionately higher hospitalization incidence. Given community contacts in September, we project a large second wave associated with school reopening in the fall.
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; mathematical modeling; reopening scenarios.
. 2021 Jan 26;118(4):e2019617118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2019617118.
Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown
Valentina Marziano[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Giorgio Guzzetta[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bruna Maria Rondinone[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Fabio Boccuni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Flavia Riccardo[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Antonino Bella[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Piero Poletti[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Filippo Trentini[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Patrizio Pezzotti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Silvio Brusaferro[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Giovanni Rezza[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sergio Iavicoli[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Marco Ajelli[SUP] 4 5 [/SUP], Stefano Merler[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33414277
- DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2019617118
Abstract
After the national lockdown imposed on March 11, 2020, the Italian government has gradually resumed the suspended economic and social activities since May 4, while maintaining the closure of schools until September 14. We use a model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission to estimate the health impact of different exit strategies. The strategy adopted in Italy kept the reproduction number R[SUB]t[/SUB] at values close to one until the end of September, with marginal regional differences. Based on the estimated postlockdown transmissibility, reopening of workplaces in selected industrial activities might have had a minor impact on the transmissibility. Reopening educational levels in May up to secondary schools might have influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility only marginally; however, including high schools might have resulted in a marked increase of the disease burden. Earlier reopening would have resulted in disproportionately higher hospitalization incidence. Given community contacts in September, we project a large second wave associated with school reopening in the fall.
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; mathematical modeling; reopening scenarios.