Prediction of mutations engineered by randomness in H5N1 hemagglutinins of influenza

[Laidback Al]

Re: Prediction of mutations engineered by randomness in H5N1 hemagglutinins of influe

Re: Prediction of mutations engineered by randomness in H5N1 hemagglutinins of influe

Guang and Shaomin, thanks for posting the graph and making the data available on your web site.

If I understand correctly the most recent five H5N1 samples as a group are statistically different than the previous 45 samples from 2007. Can you tell us which five samples these were and where they were collected?

The data for the past several years shows that the mean values fall outside the 95% confidence interval. Does this recent extreme deviation from the regression line have any significance?

If the historical observation holds on, say, the outbreak occurred after extreme point (see the red cycles in figure), then a bird flu related to H5N1 appears beyond horizon.

Does this quote mean that the potential for a pandemic increases when the trend line reaches an inflection point on the graph and the "predictable portion of randomness" increases.