tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2022 Jul 19;17(7):e0271324.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271324. eCollection 2022.
COVID-19 risk score as a public health tool to guide targeted testing: A demonstration study in Qatar
Laith J Abu-Raddad[SUP] 1 2 3 4 [/SUP], Soha Dargham[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Hiam Chemaitelly[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Peter Coyle[SUP] 5 6 7 [/SUP], Zaina Al Kanaani[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Einas Al Kuwari[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Adeel A Butt[SUP] 3 5 [/SUP], Andrew Jeremijenko[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Ali Nizar Latif[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Hanan F Abdul Rahim[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Gheyath K Nasrallah[SUP] 7 9 [/SUP], Hadi M Yassine[SUP] 7 9 [/SUP], Mohamed G Al Kuwari[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Hamad Eid Al Romaihi[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Mohamed H Al-Thani[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Abdullatif Al Khal[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Roberto Bertollini[SUP] 11 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
We developed a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk score to guide targeted RT-PCR testing in Qatar. The Qatar national COVID-19 testing database, encompassing a total of 2,688,232 RT-PCR tests conducted between February 5, 2020-January 27, 2021, was analyzed. Logistic regression analyses were implemented to derive the COVID-19 risk score, as a tool to identify those at highest risk of having the infection. Score cut-off was determined using the ROC curve based on maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity. The score's performance diagnostics were assessed. Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, and nationality as significant predictors of infection and were included in the risk score. The ROC curve was generated and the area under the curve was estimated at 0.63 (95% CI: 0.63-0.63). The score had a sensitivity of 59.4% (95% CI: 59.1%-59.7%), specificity of 61.1% (95% CI: 61.1%-61.2%), a positive predictive value of 10.9% (95% CI: 10.8%-10.9%), and a negative predictive value of 94.9% (94.9%-95.0%). The concept and utility of a COVID-19 risk score were demonstrated in Qatar. Such a public health tool can have considerable utility in optimizing testing and suppressing infection transmission, while maximizing efficiency and use of available resources.
. 2022 Jul 19;17(7):e0271324.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271324. eCollection 2022.
COVID-19 risk score as a public health tool to guide targeted testing: A demonstration study in Qatar
Laith J Abu-Raddad[SUP] 1 2 3 4 [/SUP], Soha Dargham[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Hiam Chemaitelly[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Peter Coyle[SUP] 5 6 7 [/SUP], Zaina Al Kanaani[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Einas Al Kuwari[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Adeel A Butt[SUP] 3 5 [/SUP], Andrew Jeremijenko[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Ali Nizar Latif[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Hanan F Abdul Rahim[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Gheyath K Nasrallah[SUP] 7 9 [/SUP], Hadi M Yassine[SUP] 7 9 [/SUP], Mohamed G Al Kuwari[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Hamad Eid Al Romaihi[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Mohamed H Al-Thani[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Abdullatif Al Khal[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Roberto Bertollini[SUP] 11 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35853026
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271324
Abstract
We developed a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk score to guide targeted RT-PCR testing in Qatar. The Qatar national COVID-19 testing database, encompassing a total of 2,688,232 RT-PCR tests conducted between February 5, 2020-January 27, 2021, was analyzed. Logistic regression analyses were implemented to derive the COVID-19 risk score, as a tool to identify those at highest risk of having the infection. Score cut-off was determined using the ROC curve based on maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity. The score's performance diagnostics were assessed. Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, and nationality as significant predictors of infection and were included in the risk score. The ROC curve was generated and the area under the curve was estimated at 0.63 (95% CI: 0.63-0.63). The score had a sensitivity of 59.4% (95% CI: 59.1%-59.7%), specificity of 61.1% (95% CI: 61.1%-61.2%), a positive predictive value of 10.9% (95% CI: 10.8%-10.9%), and a negative predictive value of 94.9% (94.9%-95.0%). The concept and utility of a COVID-19 risk score were demonstrated in Qatar. Such a public health tool can have considerable utility in optimizing testing and suppressing infection transmission, while maximizing efficiency and use of available resources.