tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Pediatr Infect Dis J
. 2023 Sep 7.
doi: 10.1097/INF.0000000000004079. Online ahead of print. Monte Carlo Regression for Evaluating Children's Role in the Pandemic Spread on the Example of Delta COVID-19 Wave
Joanna Mańdziuk[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Magdalena Okarska-Napierała[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Weronika Woźniak[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ada Hryniewicka[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Piotr Radziński[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Anna Gambin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Edyta Podsiadły[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Urszula Demkow[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ernest Kuchar[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Background: The children's role in transmitting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the familial settings is uncertain. We aimed to assess how often children were the index cases transmitting SARS-CoV-2 into their households during the Delta wave, and to identify risk factors of children being the index case.
Methods: In this prospective survey study, we collected information regarding household members of SARS-CoV-2-positive children tested in a single tertiary hospital. Some patients were tested with polymerase chain reaction and those samples were typed and classified as Delta or non-Delta variant. We have used the Monte Carlo approach to assess predictors of children being the index case in the household.
Results: We surveyed 629 families and 515 of them fulfilled inclusion criteria. The child was the index case in 359 (69.71%) households. Attending childcare facilities in all age groups was positively associated with being the index case in the household [nursery, estimate = 1.456, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.456-1.457, P < 0.001; kindergarten, estimate = 0.899, 95% CI: 0.898-0.900, P = 0.003; school, estimate = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.229-1.231, P = 0.001]. The same association was present in the subgroup of the families with the predominant Delta variant, but not in the subgroup with the predominant non-Delta variant.
Conclusions: Attending childcare and educational facilities might be a significant predictor of a child being the SARS-CoV-2 index case in their household. Children's role in driving the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic changes in consecutive waves. The Monte Carlo approach can be applied to assess risk factors of infectious agents' spread in future epidemics.
. 2023 Sep 7.
doi: 10.1097/INF.0000000000004079. Online ahead of print. Monte Carlo Regression for Evaluating Children's Role in the Pandemic Spread on the Example of Delta COVID-19 Wave
Joanna Mańdziuk[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Magdalena Okarska-Napierała[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Weronika Woźniak[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ada Hryniewicka[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Piotr Radziński[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Anna Gambin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Edyta Podsiadły[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Urszula Demkow[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ernest Kuchar[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 37725813
- DOI: 10.1097/INF.0000000000004079
Background: The children's role in transmitting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the familial settings is uncertain. We aimed to assess how often children were the index cases transmitting SARS-CoV-2 into their households during the Delta wave, and to identify risk factors of children being the index case.
Methods: In this prospective survey study, we collected information regarding household members of SARS-CoV-2-positive children tested in a single tertiary hospital. Some patients were tested with polymerase chain reaction and those samples were typed and classified as Delta or non-Delta variant. We have used the Monte Carlo approach to assess predictors of children being the index case in the household.
Results: We surveyed 629 families and 515 of them fulfilled inclusion criteria. The child was the index case in 359 (69.71%) households. Attending childcare facilities in all age groups was positively associated with being the index case in the household [nursery, estimate = 1.456, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.456-1.457, P < 0.001; kindergarten, estimate = 0.899, 95% CI: 0.898-0.900, P = 0.003; school, estimate = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.229-1.231, P = 0.001]. The same association was present in the subgroup of the families with the predominant Delta variant, but not in the subgroup with the predominant non-Delta variant.
Conclusions: Attending childcare and educational facilities might be a significant predictor of a child being the SARS-CoV-2 index case in their household. Children's role in driving the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic changes in consecutive waves. The Monte Carlo approach can be applied to assess risk factors of infectious agents' spread in future epidemics.