JohnW
Well-known member
Over the last few weeks, I've noticed several comments by members relating to how to respond to the risk of a severe pandemic. For those who have "newly discovered" the risk, some are clearly struggling with fear and a sense of panic. For others, who have waited for a year or more for an event that has yet to happen, they ask "have I overreacted?"<o
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As a regular subscriber to "Panics-R-Us" (a monthly newsletter from Phobos and Demos Inc.), I thought it might be worthwhile to share a few autobiographical notes, with lessons I have learned about dealing with panic.<o></o>
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Those of us who grew up during the cold war remember the fear that it engendered. We remember hiding under our little wooden desks during "air raid drills" in elementary school. We remember trembling at the sound of a sonic boom ("was that a nuclear explosion?" we would ask). As a high school student in <st1:State><st1lace>Florida</st1lace></st1:State> during the Cuban Missile Crisis, I remember the nuclear fall out shelters, stocking up, and all the other preparations for a nuclear holocaust. Perhaps this planted the seed for my first "panic attack" in the mid 1970's, when I became convinced that the world was on the brink of a nuclear war. I studied predicted fallout patterns,and thenI purchased 70 acres in <st1lace><st1:City>Addison</st1:City>, <st1:State>New York</st1:State></st1lace> and announced my resignation from work. Fortunately, I recovered my senses before actually making the move to <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State>. My job took me on as a consultant, and the kids had a great time doing primitive camping on the land in <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State>...(a favorite childhood memory for many of them). We eventually managed to sell the land without significant loss.<o></o>
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Lesson One: We can work ourselves up into a panic, (perhaps influenced by events in our past), for which there is no reasonable cause.<o></o>
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Lesson Two: Even if we "lose it" in a moment of panic, we can still profit from the experience...and even laught at ourselves once it has faded.<o></o>
<o> </o>
Lesson Three: The probability of an event that has never occured before cannot be reasonably predicted.<o></o>
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My second bout of panic occured in the early 1990's when I stumbled on a book by James Dale Davidson titled "The Great Reckoning". The book postulated the economic meltdown of the US Economy and resultant chaos in <st1:country-region><st1lace>America</st1lace></st1:country-region>. (The book "The Coming Economic Earthquake" by Larry Burkett which came out about the same time reinforced what I was reading.) The results of my panic were less severe than the first tiem. I said some ugly things to my wife as I tried to prod her into action and was embarrassment at work when I spouted off about my fears. I quickly overcame the panic when I began to plug the economic data from the Federal Rerserve into as statistics package at work...and found that by adjusting the factors I could forecast everything from disaster to prosperity. (The book by Davidson is still an interesting read, even though he was wrong as to the course of events.)<o></o>
<o> </o>
Lesson Four: Sacrcasm and bitter words are poor motivators to action and leave lingering anger and resentment.<o></o>
<o> </o>
Lesson Five: Economics proves the truth of the saying "lies, **** lies, and statistics". Soft science lacks predictive ability and is subject to misrepresentation and misinterpretation.<o></o>
<o> </o>
The third panic event was one I refused to attend. Y2K, which became a buzz word at the end of the millenium, was a distaster that fizzled. As a computer programmer, I knew that 1) the industry was well aware of the risk and had responded and 2) that any reasonable programmer could find an adequate work around to keep the system up and running until a more suitable solution could be found. When the in-laws and friends were stocking up, buying generators and otherwise in a panic I tried to persuade them that there was nothing to fear.<o></o>
<o> </o>
Lesson Six: The more knowledge we have about a subject, the less likely we are to be swayed by bogus arguments or faulty logic. (In other words, "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing".)<o></o>
<o> </o>
The fourth event, the risk of an avian flu pandemic, gave me the opportunity to apply these lessons learned. I first learned about the issue when my wife, who suffers from insomnia, greated me one morning in January, 2006 with an troubled look. She told me she had seen a very disturbing program on Opra during the night...something about the flu, being without electricity or water, and a lot of people dying. I agreed to research the topic and see what it was all about. A search of the internet showed that the guest on Oprah had been Dr. Michael Osterholm, an epidemeologist with very creditable credentials. <o></o>
<o> </o>
Further research into the issue showed that 1) Multiple pandemic flus have occured in the past 300 years, 2) Some of these pandemics, such as 1918, have been extremely severe, 3) The H5N1 virus was unprecidented both in its spread through multiple species and in its pathogenicity when it jumped species, 4) Both my own government and the World Health Organization believed that a pandemic flu might be imminent and could potentially be as severe as the 1918 flu and 5) Scientist who I personally knew and respected supported these statements, using the word "inevitable" to describe the risk of a pandemic flu. <o></o>
<o> </o>
How do the lessons of the past relate to this "fourth" event? I have researched this event much more carefully that any of the prior events, and have prepared much more cautiously. While I have no desire to overreact or appear a fool, the "fallout" from failing to prepare is far more serious than the relatively minor cost of reasonable preparations. <o></o>
<o> </o>
In other words, each risk "event" has to be assessed on its own merits. Being wrong in the past doesn't necessarily mean that I must always be wrong in the future. And having gone through past panic events, I am better able to respond in a more reasoned, controlled and cautious manner...without just ignoring the risk. After living with this risk for a year I remain convinced that the threat is real, that while it is "a slow train coming" it is still on the tracks...and sometimes when I put my ear to the tracks I think I hear a faint rumble. <o></o>
></o><o
> </o>As a regular subscriber to "Panics-R-Us" (a monthly newsletter from Phobos and Demos Inc.), I thought it might be worthwhile to share a few autobiographical notes, with lessons I have learned about dealing with panic.<o
></o><o
> </o>Those of us who grew up during the cold war remember the fear that it engendered. We remember hiding under our little wooden desks during "air raid drills" in elementary school. We remember trembling at the sound of a sonic boom ("was that a nuclear explosion?" we would ask). As a high school student in <st1:State><st1
lace>Florida</st1lace></st1:State> during the Cuban Missile Crisis, I remember the nuclear fall out shelters, stocking up, and all the other preparations for a nuclear holocaust. Perhaps this planted the seed for my first "panic attack" in the mid 1970's, when I became convinced that the world was on the brink of a nuclear war. I studied predicted fallout patterns,and thenI purchased 70 acres in <st1lace><st1:City>Addison</st1:City>, <st1:State>New York</st1:State></st1lace> and announced my resignation from work. Fortunately, I recovered my senses before actually making the move to <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State>. My job took me on as a consultant, and the kids had a great time doing primitive camping on the land in <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State>...(a favorite childhood memory for many of them). We eventually managed to sell the land without significant loss.<o></o><o
> </o>Lesson One: We can work ourselves up into a panic, (perhaps influenced by events in our past), for which there is no reasonable cause.<o
></o><o
> </o>Lesson Two: Even if we "lose it" in a moment of panic, we can still profit from the experience...and even laught at ourselves once it has faded.<o
></o><o
> </o>Lesson Three: The probability of an event that has never occured before cannot be reasonably predicted.<o
></o><o
> </o>My second bout of panic occured in the early 1990's when I stumbled on a book by James Dale Davidson titled "The Great Reckoning". The book postulated the economic meltdown of the US Economy and resultant chaos in <st1:country-region><st1
lace>America</st1lace></st1:country-region>. (The book "The Coming Economic Earthquake" by Larry Burkett which came out about the same time reinforced what I was reading.) The results of my panic were less severe than the first tiem. I said some ugly things to my wife as I tried to prod her into action and was embarrassment at work when I spouted off about my fears. I quickly overcame the panic when I began to plug the economic data from the Federal Rerserve into as statistics package at work...and found that by adjusting the factors I could forecast everything from disaster to prosperity. (The book by Davidson is still an interesting read, even though he was wrong as to the course of events.)<o></o><o
> </o>Lesson Four: Sacrcasm and bitter words are poor motivators to action and leave lingering anger and resentment.<o
></o><o
> </o>Lesson Five: Economics proves the truth of the saying "lies, **** lies, and statistics". Soft science lacks predictive ability and is subject to misrepresentation and misinterpretation.<o
></o><o
> </o>The third panic event was one I refused to attend. Y2K, which became a buzz word at the end of the millenium, was a distaster that fizzled. As a computer programmer, I knew that 1) the industry was well aware of the risk and had responded and 2) that any reasonable programmer could find an adequate work around to keep the system up and running until a more suitable solution could be found. When the in-laws and friends were stocking up, buying generators and otherwise in a panic I tried to persuade them that there was nothing to fear.<o
></o><o
> </o>Lesson Six: The more knowledge we have about a subject, the less likely we are to be swayed by bogus arguments or faulty logic. (In other words, "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing".)<o
></o><o
> </o>The fourth event, the risk of an avian flu pandemic, gave me the opportunity to apply these lessons learned. I first learned about the issue when my wife, who suffers from insomnia, greated me one morning in January, 2006 with an troubled look. She told me she had seen a very disturbing program on Opra during the night...something about the flu, being without electricity or water, and a lot of people dying. I agreed to research the topic and see what it was all about. A search of the internet showed that the guest on Oprah had been Dr. Michael Osterholm, an epidemeologist with very creditable credentials. <o
></o><o
> </o>Further research into the issue showed that 1) Multiple pandemic flus have occured in the past 300 years, 2) Some of these pandemics, such as 1918, have been extremely severe, 3) The H5N1 virus was unprecidented both in its spread through multiple species and in its pathogenicity when it jumped species, 4) Both my own government and the World Health Organization believed that a pandemic flu might be imminent and could potentially be as severe as the 1918 flu and 5) Scientist who I personally knew and respected supported these statements, using the word "inevitable" to describe the risk of a pandemic flu. <o
></o><o
> </o>How do the lessons of the past relate to this "fourth" event? I have researched this event much more carefully that any of the prior events, and have prepared much more cautiously. While I have no desire to overreact or appear a fool, the "fallout" from failing to prepare is far more serious than the relatively minor cost of reasonable preparations. <o
></o><o
> </o>In other words, each risk "event" has to be assessed on its own merits. Being wrong in the past doesn't necessarily mean that I must always be wrong in the future. And having gone through past panic events, I am better able to respond in a more reasoned, controlled and cautious manner...without just ignoring the risk. After living with this risk for a year I remain convinced that the threat is real, that while it is "a slow train coming" it is still on the tracks...and sometimes when I put my ear to the tracks I think I hear a faint rumble. <o
></o>
