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Pandemic Wave in a Spreadsheet

Snowy Owl

Snowy Owl

Retired in 2010, In Memoriam
Pandemic Wave in a Spreadsheet
​



Pandemic Wave in a Spreadsheet
​
<!--/PageTitleFmt--> <!--end of page-->
<!--PageRightFmt--><!--/PageRightFmt--> <!--PageText--> This spreadsheet details what a pandemic wave might look like given a number of assumptions.
There are columns and rows, and some cells have formulae:
  • Each week is one row. The local wave is asumed to start on week 1, meaning these are not real calendar weeks.
  • Columns include formulae for number of diseased, number of severe cases, number of deaths, etc.
  • All the formulae depend on a small number of parameters: size of the population (a country, a county, the elderly, diabetics), attack rate, severity rate, case-fatality ratio.
The spreadsheet can be extended or modified as you wish:
  • Two different waves might be ?modeled?: one lasting 12 weeks (provided below), another lasting 6 weeks (not provided).
  • You can add columns for ?scared?, ?well?, etc.
  • You can also compute an index for ?patients per hospital worker?, taking into account the presumed fact that when things are bad they are bad for all, so at the worst point your hospital also has the least workers.
  • ?Pandemic intensity? (say from the Intensive Care Units? point of view) might be the same with an attack rate of 20% and a severity rate of 1% (one scenario) and with an attack rate of 10% and a severity rate of 2% (another scenario). So you might want to ?conditionally color? each cell, so that it appears with a different color when certain ?intensity threshold? is reached.
Keep in mind (and write so in your spreadsheet) that this is not a prediction, just a ?scenario creating tool?, useful to explore qualitative and quantitative conclusions:
  • qualitative conclusions: ?we may not be able to notice the beginning?, ?things change fast?, etc.
  • quantitative conclusions: ?we?d need twice as many respirators at this stage?, etc.
<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td>
</td><td align="center">A</td><td align="center">B</td><td align="center">C</td><td align="center">D</td><td align="center">E</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">1</td><th align="left">Parameters:</th><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">2</td><td align="left">Population:</td><td align="center">1000000 (this is cell b2)</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">3</td><td align="left">Attack rate:</td><td align="center">25% (this is cell b3)</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">4</td><td align="left">Severity rate:</td><td align="center">2% (this is cell b4)</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">5</td><td align="left">Case-fatality ratio:</td><td align="center">1% (this is cell b5)</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">6</td><th align="center">Weeks</th><th align="center">Percentage (1)</th><th align="center">Ill</th><th align="center">Severe</th><th align="center">Deaths</th></tr> <tr><td align="center">7</td><th align="center">1</th><td align="center">0.5 (this is cell b7)</td><td align="center">b2*b7*b3</td><td align="center">c7*b4</td><td align="center">c7*b5</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">8</td><th align="center">2</th><td align="center">3 (this is cell b8)</td><td align="center">b2*b8*b3</td><td align="center">c8*b4</td><td align="center">c8*b5</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">9</td><th align="center">3</th><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">b2*b9*b3</td><td align="center">c9*b4</td><td align="center">c9*b5</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">10</td><th align="center">4</th><td align="center">17</td><td align="center">(etc)</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">11</td><th align="center">5</th><td align="center">?</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">12</td><th align="center">6</th><td align="center">?</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">13</td><th align="center">7</th><td align="center">?</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">14</td><th align="center">8</th><td align="center">?</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">15</td><th align="center">9</th><td align="center">?</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">16</td><th align="center">10</th><td align="center">?</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">17</td><th align="center">11</th><td align="center">3</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">18</td><th align="center">12</th><td align="center">0.5 (this is cell b18)</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">19</td><th align="center">Total</th><td align="center">sum(b7..b18) (1)</td><td align="center">sum(c7..c18)</td><td align="center">sum(d7..d18)</td><td align="center">sum(e7..e18)</td></tr> </tbody></table>
(1): All the percentages add up to 100%


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Page last modified on March 16, 2006, at 06:29 AM by treckie​
 
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