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http://www.publico.es/agencias/reuters/276723/estudio/confirma/baja/mortalidad/gripe/porcina
By Maggie Fox
One of the most systematic looks made so far of the swine flu epidemic confirms that it is just a little more serious than an average of seasonal influenza season and might even be lighter, scientists report.
The researchers analyzed data from Milwaukee and New York, two cities in the United States to keep detailed records of outbreaks of H1N1, and estimated a mortality rate of 0.048 percent as possible.
"That means that died 1 in 2,000 people who had symptoms of infection with H1N1," he wrote to Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Harvard University.
It is likely that the 1.44 percent of patients with H1N1 were severe enough for hospitalization and 0.24 percent needed intensive care.
The findings, published in PLoS Medicine, a journal Public Library of Science, are useful for officials and those responsible for public health care because the influenza pandemic killing millions and aggravate global recession.
Although not guarantee that the H1N1 virus does not worsen or arising other more lethal strain.
"We estimate (...) hospitalized at 1.44 percent of patients with symptomatic H1N1 in spring (northern hemisphere) in the U.S., the 0.239 percent needed mechanical ventilation or intensive care, and 0.048 percent died," Lipsitch and colleagues wrote.
LOWEST RATES
With a different method and only data from New York City, the team calculated a lower mortality rate of 0.007 per cent.
Health experts agree that it is impossible to estimate accurately how many people fell ill with the H1N1 virus, pandemic was declared in June.
The tests were carried out very few people, is vague and many have only a mild infection. So careful projections provide a more accurate picture of a pandemic that the figures confirmed illness and mortality.
Lipsitch specializes in this type of calculations and an overall estimate was similar projections in September.
An open question is how many people were infected. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Diseases in the United States in November estimated 22 million Americans.
Lipsitch's team calculated a potential range of between 7800 and 29,000 deaths.
That compared with seasonal flu, which kills 36,000 people per year and 200,000 hospitalized.
"Until now, symptomatic attack rates would be below 25 percent in the epidemic hemisphere winter and autumn epidemic underway in the U.S.," the team added in the report.
By Maggie Fox
One of the most systematic looks made so far of the swine flu epidemic confirms that it is just a little more serious than an average of seasonal influenza season and might even be lighter, scientists report.
The researchers analyzed data from Milwaukee and New York, two cities in the United States to keep detailed records of outbreaks of H1N1, and estimated a mortality rate of 0.048 percent as possible.
"That means that died 1 in 2,000 people who had symptoms of infection with H1N1," he wrote to Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Harvard University.
It is likely that the 1.44 percent of patients with H1N1 were severe enough for hospitalization and 0.24 percent needed intensive care.
The findings, published in PLoS Medicine, a journal Public Library of Science, are useful for officials and those responsible for public health care because the influenza pandemic killing millions and aggravate global recession.
Although not guarantee that the H1N1 virus does not worsen or arising other more lethal strain.
"We estimate (...) hospitalized at 1.44 percent of patients with symptomatic H1N1 in spring (northern hemisphere) in the U.S., the 0.239 percent needed mechanical ventilation or intensive care, and 0.048 percent died," Lipsitch and colleagues wrote.
LOWEST RATES
With a different method and only data from New York City, the team calculated a lower mortality rate of 0.007 per cent.
Health experts agree that it is impossible to estimate accurately how many people fell ill with the H1N1 virus, pandemic was declared in June.
The tests were carried out very few people, is vague and many have only a mild infection. So careful projections provide a more accurate picture of a pandemic that the figures confirmed illness and mortality.
Lipsitch specializes in this type of calculations and an overall estimate was similar projections in September.
An open question is how many people were infected. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Diseases in the United States in November estimated 22 million Americans.
Lipsitch's team calculated a potential range of between 7800 and 29,000 deaths.
That compared with seasonal flu, which kills 36,000 people per year and 200,000 hospitalized.
"Until now, symptomatic attack rates would be below 25 percent in the epidemic hemisphere winter and autumn epidemic underway in the U.S.," the team added in the report.